T OKAVAN EN GO N R A I M V R E R E P FINAL E T H DRAF T B A S I COMN W N A O I T S E S I R M OKA C M O The Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission Cubango-Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis A ANGOLA BOTSWANA NAMIBIA N B OKACOM Cubango-Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis 2011 ISBN 978-99912-0-972-2 A N B OKACOM Tel +267 680 0023 Fax +267 680 0024 Email [email protected] www.okacom.org PO Box 35, Airport Industrial, Maun, Botswana 4 | Front cover: Cuito River at Cuito Cuanavale, Angola Inside front cover: Late afternoon on the Kavango River, Namibia, February 2010 Copyright The Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission 2011 ISBN 978- 99912-0-972-2 Cite as: The Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission. 2011. Cubango-Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis. Maun, Botswana: OKACOM, 2011 Photographs not otherwise credited, courtesy of Professor Jackie King and Dr Cate Brown, Wilma Matheson, Frances Murray-Hudson, EPSMO Project and OKASEC Designed by Twin Zebras, Maun, Botswana CONTENTS | 5 Contents 5 LIST OF tables _______________________________________________________________________8 LIST OF FIGURES ____________________________________________________________________ 10 ACRONYMS AND ABBREViations ___________________________________________________ 12 ACKnowleDGEMENTS _____________________________________________________________ 14 FORewoRD _______________________________________________________________________ 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 18 OKACOM AND MANAGEMENT OF THE CUBANGO-OKAVANGO RIVER BASIN _____________________________19 EPSMO AND THE CUBANGO-OKAVANGO TDA _________________________________________________________19 GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE OF THE TDA __________________________________________________________________20 TDA METHODOLOGY _________________________________________________________________________________20 TDA MANAGEMENT AND EXECUTION __________________________________________________________________21 INTEGRATED FLOW ASSESSMENT _______________________________________________________________________22 TRANSBOUNDARY AREAS OF CONCERN _______________________________________________________________22 VARIATION AND REDUCTION OF HYDROLOGICAL FLOW ________________________________________________24 CHANGES IN SEDIMENT DYNAMICS ___________________________________________________________________25 CHANGES IN WATER QUALITY _________________________________________________________________________26 CHANGES IN ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF BIOTA ________________________________________________27 KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ______________________________________________________________28 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCING THE CUbango-OKAVANGO RIVER basin 34 1.1 THE CUbango-OKAVANGO RIVER basin _______________________________________________________35 1.2 OKACOM AND management OF THE CUbango-OKAVANGO RIVER basin______________________36 1.3 SUstainable Management OF THE CUbango-OKAVANGO RIVER BASIN (EPSMO) anD THE CUbango-OKAVANGO TRANSBOUNDARY DiagnostiC ANALYSIS (TDA) ________________37 1.4 GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE TDA _____________________________________________________________37 CHAPTER 2: TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS (TDA) METHODOLOGY 38 2.1 OVERVIEW ___________________________________________________________________________________38 2.2 Management OF THE TDA ____________________________________________________________________40 2.3 IDENTIFICation AND INITIAL PRIORITIZation OF KEY AREAS OF CONCERN ________________________42 2.4 Data gatheRING AND baseline ASSESSMENT __________________________________________________43 2.5 THE DRIVER-PRESSURE-statUS-impaCT-RESPONSE APPRoaCH ____________________________________43 2.6 INTEGRateD flow ASSESSMENT _______________________________________________________________43 2.7 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS _________________________________________________________________________47 2.8 GOVERNANCE AND POLICY ANALYSIS _________________________________________________________48 2.9 CaUSAL CHAIN ANALYSES _____________________________________________________________________49 6 | CONTENTS CHAPTER 3: THE CUBANGO-OKAVANGO RIVER BASIN – ITS PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT 50 3.1 PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL featURES ___________________________________________________________50 3.1.1 Topography, geology and soils _________________________________________________________50 3.1.2 Climate and climate variability ________________________________________________________52 3.1.3 Hydrology, sediment dynamics and water quality _______________________________________55 3.2 BIOLOGICAL COMPONENTS ___________________________________________________________________62 3.2.1 Land cover and protected areas ______________________________________________________62 3.2.2 Basin ecosystems _____________________________________________________________________65 3.2.3 Biodiversity and biological production _________________________________________________68 3.2.4 Ecosystem functions and services ______________________________________________________69 3.3 THE PEOPLE OF THE CUbango-OKAVANGO RIVER basin ________________________________________70 3.3.1 Demographic characteristics __________________________________________________________70 3.3.2 Population growth forecasts ___________________________________________________________72 3.3.3 Ethnic diversity of the basin ____________________________________________________________74 3.3.4 Social, educational and health indicators ______________________________________________75 CHAPTER 4: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 78 4.1 MACRO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND TRENDS __________________________________________________78 4.2 SECtoRAL baseline __________________________________________________________________________80 4.2.1 National perspectives _________________________________________________________________80 4.2.2 Basin perspective _____________________________________________________________________82 4.3 INTERnational AND REGIONAL MARKET FORCES _______________________________________________92 4.4 BASIN LIVELIHOODS AND ECONOMIC VALUE OF THE RIVER ______________________________________93 4.4.1 Rural livelihoods in the basin ___________________________________________________________93 4.4.2 Contribution of Cubango-Okavango resources to livelihoods ____________________________94 CHAPTER 5: GOVERNANCE REVIEW 98 5.1 ORGANIZation OF states _____________________________________________________________________98 5.2 NatURAL RESOURCES management laws, POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS __________________________99 5.3 National DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND KEY SECtoR POLICIES _________________________________104 5.4 PERMANENT OKAVANGO RIVER BASIN WateR COMMISSION (OKACOM) ________________________107 5.5 KeY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDations OF GOVERNANCE REVIEW ____________________________108 5.5.1 Policy and legislation frameworks _____________________________________________________109 5.5.2 Inter-sectoral planning _______________________________________________________________111 5.5.3 Local level institutions ________________________________________________________________112 5.5.4 The role of OKACOM _________________________________________________________________112 CHAPTER 6: INTEGRATED FLOW ASSESSMENT 114 6.1 INTRODUCTION to THE IFA ____________________________________________________________________114 6.2 METHODOLOGY _____________________________________________________________________________114 6.3 SCENARIO SETTING __________________________________________________________________________118 6.4 RepResentatiVE SITES ________________________________________________________________________121 CONTENTS | 7 6.5 THE impaCT OF wateR RESOURCES DEVELOPMENTS ON THE flow REGIME ______________________122 6.5.1 The context __________________________________________________________________________122 6.5.2. Sites 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6: the river sites ______________________________________________________122 6.5.3 Sites 7 and 8: the delta and outflow sites ______________________________________________125 6.5.4 Conclusion on potential flow changes ________________________________________________128 6.6 ImpaCTS ON THE RIVER ECOSYSTEM ___________________________________________________________128 6.6.1 The context __________________________________________________________________________128 6.6.2 Overall ecosystem health ____________________________________________________________130 6.6.3 Status of river zones __________________________________________________________________131 6.7 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICations ____________________________________________________________132 6.7.1 Short-term livelihood implications of developing water resources _______________________132 6.7.2 Longer-term economic implications of developing water resources _____________________133 6.8 MACRO-ECONOMIC IMPLICations ___________________________________________________________140 6.8.1 Developing a trade-off analysis _______________________________________________________140 6.8.2 Predicting the macro-economic consequences for each country ______________________141 CHAPTER 7: AREAS OF CONCERN 148 7.1 AREAS OF CONCERN AND THEIR DRIVERS _____________________________________________________148 7.1.1 Population dynamics and urbanization ________________________________________________149 7.1.2 Land-use change ____________________________________________________________________151 7.1.3 Poverty ______________________________________________________________________________151 7.1.4 Climate change _____________________________________________________________________152