Rail Report 2015/16 - QUARTER 3 Introduction The Connect Tees Valley Rail Report provides an up to date summary of patronage data at all Tees Valley stations, performance data for train operating companies that serve the Tees Valley and the results from regular station audits. The report is produced by Connect Tees Valley (CTV) on a quarterly basis, in line with rail industry operating periods. There are 13 operating periods covering the year, starting in April. This report covers Quarter 3 for 2015/16 (20 Sept ‘15 - 12 Dec ‘15), comprising operating Periods 7, 8 & 9. Patronage Data (see table 2) Patronage data for all stations in the Tees Valley is supplied to CTV every month by the Office of Rail & Road (ORR) and Northern Rail. Table 2 (see page 7), shows the level of patronage at all stations within the Tees Valley for Periods 7, 8 & 9 of the 2015/16 operating year alongside figures from the corresponding periods in 2014/15. PERCENTAGE CHANGE AGAINST QUARTER 3 OF 2014/15 ….. +0.5% Commentary Tees Valley rail patronage saw a marginal increase of +0.5% against the same quarter for 2014/15, which equates to 7,570 additional passenger journeys. Following on from last year’s (2014/15) record breaking figures, the grand total for Quarter 3 of 1,599,480 passenger journeys (annoyingly just 520 shy of 1.6m) is once again the best ever for a regular 12 week quarter (Quarter 4 at 16 weeks, is not on the proverbial level playing field) since the collation of Tees Valley Rail data commenced in 2007/2008! Whilst the net effect for the Quarter was positive, per period the totals were a mixed bag. With the exception of an unnaturally elongated Period 1 (32 days), Period 7 was the first time that in excess of 550,000 passengers have been recorded in one period however on the flip side, both Periods 8 & 9 suffered identical negativity of -2%. An impressive 10 stations showed year on year growth in each period of the Quarter (including 6 with double digit positivity throughout), whilst only 2 stations (Redcar Central & South Bank) were negative throughout. Of the consistently good, Marton jointly shared the biggest margin of improvement (36% - P8) and whilst Period 9 dropped below 1,000 passengers for the first time in the last six periods, it was still up by 20% year on year. There was delight at Dinsdale when patronage topped 5,000 in a period for the first time (P7) - jointly with Marton it also notched the largest period percentage year on year increase (36% - P7) in Quarter 3. At Yarm numbers exceeded 11,000 in each period of a quarter for the first time with Period 8’s 11,651 being the second highest figure recorded. Thornaby was the only one of the major stations to record growth in each period with Darlington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough all returning mixed results. At the other end of the spectrum, Redcar Central was one of only two stations to show negativity throughout, continuing an unhappy sequence of five consecutive periods of year on year decline. The Tees Valley Line stations to the east of Middlesbrough continue to give cause for concern. Following on from the introduction of the much improved hourly frequency timetable (from May 2013), South Bank’s Connect Tees Valley Page 1 Rail Report - 2015/16 Quarter 3 percentage growth was skewed impressively and consistently upwards. However it transpired that some of that growth was attributable to a ticketing anomaly, whereby it was significantly cheaper for passengers requiring a period return from Middlesbrough to Newcastle to book their ticket as if they were starting out from South Bank. Northern removed that anomaly in May 2015, so some of the year on year decline showing at South Bank (the first since Period 2 in 2012/13!) is down to the figures settling to reflect actual (rather than pseudo) usage. Marske’s Period 9 figure (5,438) was its lowest for almost two years however Longbeck bucked the trend, with growth throughout the Quarter with Period 8 (3,638) being its best figure for 17 periods. National Performance Data Table 1 indicates the recent performance of all passenger train operating companies that serve the Tees Valley. This data is published by the ORR for each operator in the country in a quarterly report, which is approximately 3 months in arrears. Public Performance Measure (PPM) is the industry standard means of measuring the percentage of passenger trains that are run on time. Comparative data, where available, is provided for the previous quarter and the corresponding quarter in the previous year. The figures for the operators categorised by the ORR as long distance, indicates the percentage of trains arriving within 10 minutes of the timetabled arrival at their final destination - for the regional operators, it is the percentage of trains arriving within 5 minutes. It should also be noted that these are franchise-wide figures that do not relate specifically to any routes or services. TABLE 1: PPM PUNCTUALITY DATA for TEES VALLEY RAIL OPERATORS - QUARTER 2 (2015/2016) QUARTER LONG DISTANCE OPERATORS Q2 (2015/16) Q1 (2015/16) Q2 2014/15 Virgin Trains East Coast 86.8 89.4 88.6 First TransPennine Express 90.7 91.4 88.1 Arriva Cross Country 89.9 91.6 88.8 Grand Central 88.5 90.0 88.1 REGIONAL OPERATORS Northern Rail 92.1 93.0 91.1 Source: ORR 2015-16 Quarter 2 Statistical Release - Passenger & Freight Rail Performance Commentary With the exception of Virgin Trains East Coast, all the operators showed year on year improvement when compared against Quarter 2 (2014/15). Virgin Trains East Coast was the poorest performer in Quarter 2 and the only operator to slip back year on year (-1.8%), though last year’s 88.6% was still under East Coast’s jurisdiction. First TransPennine Express was both the best of the long distance operators and the only one to break through the 90% ceiling - it also recorded the biggest margin of improvement, up 2.6% year on year. Arriva Cross Country, after recording back to back PPM Quarters exceeding 90% for the first time since 2011/12, just failed to make it a hat trick by a measly 0.1%! Grand Central, similarly missed out on a hat trick, having just recorded its first ever consecutive PPM Quarters in excess of 90%, it dropped back to 88.5% this time round. Northern Rail was once again the king (or queen) of the castle, this time by 1.4% from its nearest challenger (FTPE) and was the best overall performer for the seventh consecutive quarter - it was last deposed in Quarter 3 2013/14. Connect Tees Valley Page 2 Rail Report - 2015/16 Quarter 3 Northern Rail Performance Data (see table 3) In advance of the publication of industry-wide data by the ORR, Northern Rail, the operator of the majority of services within the Tees Valley, kindly supplies CTV with up to date monthly Public Performance Measure (PPM) figures. These figures have been disaggregated by route to give a clearer picture of performance. As these services are classed as regional by the ORR, the percentages shown for Northern Rail relate to arrivals within 5 minutes of timetable at their final destination. Table 3 contains this performance information for periods 7, 8 & 9 of 2015/16. The table also shows the Moving Annual Average (MAA) and the appropriate target for each period set by Northern Rail for routes in its AD North Area. Commentary All Local Lines: some of the difficulties afflicting key locations and therefore potentially impacting upon the performance of all the routes under review are noted here. In an attempt to take the laughs out of leaf fall, Northern’s website (and associated social media) published a daily morning forecast throughout the autumn categorising the risk of service disruption due to poor railhead conditions. A link was also provided to Network Rail’s site highlighting the strenuous efforts they made to combat the problem, as they strove to keep lines operating without seasonal delay. Lineside evidence is also in abundance of NR’s ongoing programme of vegetation clearance from areas immediately adjacent to the trackbed, as they seek to reduce the potential for delay in future years. Locally the leaf fall effect was mixed, with performance on the Tees Valley line holding up well whilst the Esk Valley Line suffered worse. On Halloween at Middlesbrough, high passenger volumes were the stated contributory factor of 14 PPM failures/296 minutes delay & 4 cancellations. Whilst it was a Middlesbrough FC home game (attendance 20,943 - about average), the Rugby World Cup Final (at Twickenham) and Whitby Goth Weekend, the impact was still somewhat surprising. Middlesbrough to Newcastle (Durham Coast Line): one major incident dominated Quarter 3, when the Tyne & Wear Metro overhead wires were brought down at Brockley Whins by the aftermath of storm Desmond on 7th December. For 48 hours many Northern services were curtailed to operate between Middlesbrough and Newcastle only with bus replacement for local Nunthorpe services (Whitby trains were unaffected). The cumulative effect was a not insignificant 91 PPM failures/1,915 minutes delay & 41 cancellations and a Period 9 PPM figure of just 75.29%, the poorest for 12 months. Saltburn to Newcastle (2 trains via Darlington): the low level of service seemed to proof the route against the worse that autumn could throw at the Tees Valley, with Period 8’s 93.75% being the best of the bunch this time round and in so doing contributed to the MAA exceeding 90% for the first time in several years - just three years ago (period 8; 2012/2013) the MAA was a fairly dismal 81.69%.