Wayne State University DigitalCommons@WayneState Wayne State University Dissertations 1-1-2013 Averting Dyadic Conflict: The Role Of International Political Economy Michael James Langlois Wayne State University, Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations Recommended Citation Langlois, Michael James, "Averting Dyadic Conflict: The Role Of International Political Economy" (2013). Wayne State University Dissertations. Paper 668. This Open Access Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@WayneState. It has been accepted for inclusion in Wayne State University Dissertations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@WayneState. AVERTING DYADIC CONFLICT: THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY by MICHAEL J. LANGLOIS DISSERTATION Submitted to the Graduate School of Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY 2013 MAJOR: POLITICAL SCIENCE Approved by: Advisor Date © COPYRIGHT BY MICHAEL J. LANGLOIS 2013 All Rights Reserved DEDICATION To my loving wife Jennifer and our two beautiful children Nathan and Alyssa. You are continually with me in all endeavors. And to my mother-in-law and father-in-law, Brenda and John, for their continued support throughout this entire project. Without you all I couldn't have done it. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge the contributions of Daniel Geller, Timothy Carter, Yumin Sheng, and Attila Yaprak for their support, insight, and guidance throughout the dissertation process. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Dedication ....................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review ........................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 3 Theoretical Layout ....................................................................................................... 37 Research Question ..................................................................................................................... 55 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................................ 56 Chapter 4 Research Design ........................................................................................................... 63 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 65 Variables .................................................................................................................................... 73 Chapter 5 Results .......................................................................................................................... 95 Discussion ............................................................................................................................... 116 Robustness ............................................................................................................................... 126 Chapter 6 Case Studies ............................................................................................................... 130 Chapter 7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 161 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................... 167 iv References ................................................................................................................................... 168 Abstract ....................................................................................................................................... 187 Autobiographical Statement ........................................................................................................ 188 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Dependent Variables ....................................................................................................... 76 Table 2: Onset v. Ongoing Coding Decisions - USA-Iraq Example ............................................ 79 Table 3: Independent Variables .................................................................................................... 85 Table 4: Control Variables ............................................................................................................ 94 Table 5: Logistic Regression Models for the Onset of War ....................................................... 101 Table 6: Logistic Regression Models for the Onset of MIDs ..................................................... 103 Table 7: Ordered Logistic Regression Models for the Escalation of MIDs ............................... 105 Table 8: Levels of DEI and Highest Dyadic Hostility Levels .................................................... 107 Table 9: Changes in Predicted Probabilities from Low to High DEI ......................................... 115 Table 10: Predicted Scenarios Affecting the Likelihood of the Onset of MIDs ......................... 124 Table 11: India-Pakistan Dyad Statistics .................................................................................... 139 Table 12: China-Taiwan Dyad Statistics .................................................................................... 147 Table 13: Greece-Turkey Dyad Statistics ................................................................................... 153 Table 14: Descriptive Statistics Comparison .............................................................................. 156 Table 15: Levels of DEI and Highest Dyadic Hostility Levels .................................................. 158 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Structural Equation Model for DEI Factor Score .......................................................... 68 Figure 2: New Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) by Year ................................................. 109 Figure 3: New Disputes and Average Hostility Level Decreases by Levels of DEI .................. 111 Figure 4: Predicted Probabilities by Levels of Dense Economic Integration ............................. 113 Figure 5: Predicted Probabilities by Levels of Hostility ............................................................. 116 Figure 6: Relationships between FTAs, Dyadic Trade Density, and Conflict ............................ 123 vii 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION My dissertation attempts to answer an enduring empirical puzzle about the relationship between economics and conflict. Do dyadic economic linkages reduce the likelihood of conflict? Contemporary conventional wisdom tends to adopt the idea that economic ties somehow interact with conflict. International relations literature, however, tends to provide somewhat mixed results. The contemporary debate in the literature about the potential pacifying effects of economics is centered around the proponents of economic interdependence and the capitalist peace. For instance, the role of economic interdependence and its influence on conflict is complex, and as we will see has been open to a host of different interpretations. As Mark Crescenzi points out, there are two primary issues within the literature on economic interdependence which involve the variation in measurement, and the general lack of causal explanations in terms of how economic relationships influence the likelihood of conflict (Crescenzi 2005). One goal of this study is to provide a useful measurement of economic interdependence. In an argument that is related to the economic interdependence literature, researchers in the capitalist peace camp make the contention that free markets lead to peace (Gartzke 2007). The claim of interstate peace through economics is not novel, but the sophisticated approach by those in the capitalist peace camp has breathed new life into the debate over the role of economic ties. Skeptics maintain that the democratic peace is still the superior theory, arguing that the democratic regime type leads to peace, at least between democracies, and it accounts for the economic ties examined within the capitalist peace literature (Dafoe 2011). This study, however, moves away from the debate between the democratic peace and capitalist peace, and instead focuses on developing a synthesized theory for the role of economic ties and 2 peace. Moreover, my dissertation will incorporate the use of exit costs as the causal mechanism between private actors and political decision makers, which is important since the reason why economic ties reduce the likelihood of conflict has been somewhat of a missing link in the research on economics and conflict. The specific focus of this study is to generate a theory that explains why economic ties have a pacifying effect on the onset, and escalation of conflict within interstate