Extreme weather and climate in Europe ETC/CCA Technical Paper N. 2/2015 10 November 2015 Authors: Paul van der Linden1, Peter Dempsey1, Robert Dunn1, John Caesar1, Blaz Kurnik2 Reviewers: Rutger Dankers1, Blaz Kurnik2, Andre Jol2, Michael Kunz3, Henny van Lanen4, Rasmus Benestad5, Simon Parry6, Mikael Hilden7, Andreas Marx8, Jaroslav Mysiak9, Lizzie Kendon1 European Environment Agency European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation The European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC CCA) is a consortium of European institutes under contract of the European Environment Agency: CMCC Alterra AU-NERI CUNI FFCUL MetOffice SYKE THETIS UFZ UPM Cover photo: © Karlsruher Institute of Technology Layout/editing: Met Office (MO) Legal notice This European Topic Centre on Climate Change Impacts, vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA) Technical Paper has not been subject to a European Environment Agency (EEA) member country review. The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Environment Agency, the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the ETC/CCA nor any person or company acting on behalf of the ETC/CCA is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © ETC/CCA, 2015 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Authors affiliation 1Met Office, 2EEA ,3Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 4Wageningen University,5 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 6CEH Wallingford, 7SYKE, 8Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), 9CMCC EEA Project manager Blaz Kurnik, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark European Topic Centre on Climate Change impacts, vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA) Website: http://cca.eionet.europa.eu/. European Topic Centre on Climate Change impacts, vulnerability and Adaptation (ETC/CCA) C/o Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) Via M. Franceschini 31, 40128 Bologna, Italy Phone: +39 051 4151411, int. 277 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.cmcc.it/. Contents Summary ............................................................................................................................. 4 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Setting the Scene ................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Climate context of extreme weather events ..................................................................... 6 1.3 Features of recent extreme events in Europe .................................................................. 8 1.4 Intended readership and scope of report ........................................................................ 14 2 Data ............................................................................................................................. 16 2.1 Observations .......................................................................................................... 16 2.1.1 Data types ................................................................................................................... 16 2.1.2 European datasets ..................................................................................................... 19 2.1.3 Data gaps, homogeneity and time series ............................................................... 21 2.1.4 Gridded data ............................................................................................................... 22 2.1.5 Climate indices and interrelations ............................................................................ 23 2.1.6 Extreme Value Analysis ............................................................................................ 24 2.2 Climate modelling and scenarios ..................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Climate models and bias correction ........................................................................ 24 2.2.2 Emissions scenarios .................................................................................................. 26 2.2.3 Socio-economic & policy scenarios ......................................................................... 27 3 Extremes..................................................................................................................... 29 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Temperature (Heat waves) ............................................................................................... 29 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................ 29 3.1.1 Observations and data - temperature ..................................................................... 30 3.1.2 Observed trends - temperature ................................................................................ 32 3.1.3 Attribution - temperature ............................................................................................ 38 3.1.4 Projections - temperature .......................................................................................... 39 3.1.5 Links to drought .......................................................................................................... 45 3.2 Precipitation ......................................................................................................................... 46 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................ 46 3.2.1 Observations and data - precipitation ..................................................................... 46 3.2.2 Observed trends – precipitation ............................................................................... 47 3.2.3 Projections – precipitation ......................................................................................... 54 3.3 Hail ........................................................................................................................................ 59 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................ 59 3.3.1 Observations and data – hail .................................................................................... 60 3.3.2 Observed trends and variability - hail ...................................................................... 65 2 Extreme weather and climate in Europe 3.3.3 Projections ................................................................................................................... 67 3.4 Drought ................................................................................................................................ 69 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................ 69 3.4.1 Meteorological Drought ................................................................................................. 72 3.4.1.1 Observations - meteorological drought ............................................................... 72 3.4.1.2 Projections – meteorological drought .................................................................. 78 3.4.2 Hydrological drought ...................................................................................................... 80 3.4.2.1 Observations - Hydrological drought ................................................................... 80 3.4.2.2 Projections - hydrological drought ....................................................................... 83 3.4.3 Soil moisture drought ..................................................................................................... 85 3.4.3.1 Observations - soil moisture drought .................................................................. 85 3.4.3.2 Projections - soil moisture drought ...................................................................... 88 Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 89 A.1 Temperature, precipitation, drought and excess heat indices ............................ 89 A.2 Case studies ........................................................................................................... 93 A2.1 Case study: 2010 Russia heat wave ........................................................................... 93 A3.2 Case study: 2002 and 2013 extreme precipitation .................................................... 96 A2.3 Case study: Drought in 2011 in Europe ...................................................................... 97 A2.4 Case Study Hail ............................................................................................................ 101 References ...................................................................................................................... 104 Extreme weather and climate in Europe 3 Summary This report describes the current scientific knowledge of extreme weather and climate events in Europe for the following variables: temperature, precipitation, hail, and drought (with the following