A Study to identify the suitable locations for the adaptation of Underutilised Tropical Fruit Tree Species using G.I.S. Colm Bowe January 2004 1 Table of Contents 1 Introduction............................................................................................................4 1.1 General...........................................................................................................4 1.2 Under-utilised crops.......................................................................................5 1.3 Underutilised tropical fruit tree species .........................................................5 1.4 Scope of Study ...............................................................................................7 2 Literature review....................................................................................................8 2.1 Tamarind........................................................................................................8 2.2 Ber..................................................................................................................9 2.3 Jackfruit........................................................................................................11 2.4 Matching Plants and Land ...........................................................................12 2.5 Land Evaluation...........................................................................................14 2.5.1 Physical land evaluation ......................................................................15 2.5.2 Plant Description..................................................................................15 2.5.2.1 Explanatory and dynamic models....................................................15 2.5.2.2 Statistical modelling of plant-environment relationships ................16 2.5.2.3 Plant-environment relationship modelling using informal data.......17 2.5.3 Land Description..................................................................................20 2.6 Socioeconomic evaluation ...........................................................................20 2.7 Validation.....................................................................................................21 3 Materials and Methods.........................................................................................22 3.1 Development of plant-environment relationship models.............................22 3.2 Production of Suitability Maps ....................................................................26 3.3 Point Distribution Map ................................................................................28 3.3.1 Creation of Environment Profile..........................................................29 3.4 Validation.....................................................................................................29 3.4.1 Country Distribution list ......................................................................29 3.4.2 Potential verses actual distribution ......................................................29 3.4.3 Comparison with environment profile.................................................30 3.4.4 Field Survey.........................................................................................30 3.4.4.1 Physical survey ................................................................................31 3.4.4.2 Socioeconomic and agronomic survey ............................................31 3.5 Geographical Database ................................................................................31 4 Results..................................................................................................................32 4.1 Suitability Classification..............................................................................32 4.1.1 Suitability Index...................................................................................32 4.1.2 Suitability maps ...................................................................................35 4.1.2.1 Suitable country lists........................................................................38 4.1.2.2 Point Distribution Map ....................................................................40 4.1.2.3 Environment profile.........................................................................41 4.1.3 Validation.............................................................................................53 4.1.3.1 Actual verses potential distribution .................................................53 4.1.3.2 Comparison with Environmental profile .........................................61 4.1.4 Field data analysis................................................................................64 4.1.4.1 Regression Analysis.........................................................................64 5 Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................73 5.1 Validation.....................................................................................................73 5.2 Proposal for future work ..............................................................................74 5.2.1 Development of environment-plant relationship model ......................74 2 5.2.1.1 Statistical modelling.........................................................................75 5.2.1.2 Developing models from informal data ...........................................76 5.2.2 Water balance model............................................................................78 5.2.3 Dynamic aspect....................................................................................78 5.2.4 Distribution maps and Environment Profiles.......................................78 5.3 Populations structure....................................................................................79 5.4 Phenology data.............................................................................................79 5.5 Socioeconomic and agronomic analysis ......................................................79 5.6 Database.......................................................................................................79 5.7 Socio – economic Evaluation.......................................................................79 5.8 Biotic Evaluation .........................................................................................80 6 References............................................................................................................81 7 Appendices...........................................................................................................86 7.1 Appendix 1...................................................................................................86 7.1.1 Field Work Questionnaire....................................................................86 7.2 Appendix 2...................................................................................................92 7.2.1 Reclassification Maps ..........................................................................92 7.3 Appendix 3.................................................................................................127 1 3 Introduction 1.1 General Some progress continues to be made in increasing food production in the developing world, however the issues of food and nutrition insecurity continue. An imbalance in world crop production has continued throughout the last two decades with fuel and food shortages in Africa, Asia, Central and South America. Diets lacking in vitamins and minerals has lead to some of the worlds most widespread and debilitating nutritional disorders. These include birth defects, mental and physical retardation, weakened immune system, blindness and even death. The cause of this insecurity is due to a number of contributing factors; the uneven distribution of the wealth and high quality land, the contradiction between statutory and community tenure systems, civil wars and poor government policies all lead to a feeling of land insecurity and therefore lack of long term investment. A large amount of farmland has become poorly managed, leaving crops unharvested and increasing land degradation due to a decrease in working rural population. This is due to the effects of aids in Africa (FAO 1995) and the increasing migration of men to urban areas to supplement household income, thus increasing the pressure on the already overworked female population. The increase in global population has meant there is a greater demand on natural resources causing increased exploitation of forest resources and deforestation and increased demand on the land has meant a reduction in fallow time. These factors have meant that a larger number of people now inhabit ‘marginal’ less favourable land. These people’s livelihoods are based on small holdings of land with erratic rainfall and poor soil fertility, few crop species and yields that are highly dependant on climate and few management inputs. A large proportion of the developing world’s food production is carried out by the smallholder farmers, this means the population’s food and nutrition security is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in market price and climate (FAO 1997). Merely increasing the yield per hectare with indiscriminate use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides or increased irrigation, and intensive farming methods will not alone improve food security and nutritional status. The possibilities of extending the area used for agriculture are limited and the yield capacity