Independent Review of Build Out Rates Annexes June 2018 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government © Crown copyright, 2018 Copyright in the typographical arrangement rests with the Crown. You may re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/ This document/publication is also available on our website at www.gov.uk/mhclg If you have any enquiries regarding this document/publication, complete the form at http://forms.communities.gov.uk/ or write to us at: Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government Fry Building 2 Marsham Street London SW1P 4DF Telephone: 030 3444 0000 For all our latest news and updates follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mhclg June 2018 ISBN: 978-1-4098-5264-3 Contents Annex A. Build out rates AX5 Annex B. Data methodology AX51 Annex C. Site visits AX55 Annex D. Other meetings AX115 Annex E. Published sources AX277 Annex F. Stages of the planning process AX283 AX3 AX4 Annex A. Build out rates Annex A. Build out rates 1 Start to finish 2 Stage 1: Regulatory 3 Stage 2: Build out 4 Case study sites: Build out rates AX5 Annex A. Build out rates AX6 Annex A. Build out rates KEY Stages: 1 ‘Regulatory stage’ A – From application to outline permission granted B – From outline permission granted to first detailed application C – From first detailed application to first detailed permission 2 – ‘Build out stage’ A – From first detailed permission to first start (dwelling) B – From first start to final completion (actual, projected) NOTES ON GRAPHS Case study sample All data was requested at the time of site visits and was provided by developers and local planning authorities between January and May 2018. Site size is based upon units specified in original outline and/or full planning applications, excluding conversions. The case study sample size is 15. Planning permission was secured via a hybrid application on two of these sites. In the following cases, a part of the site has been excluded for the purposes of the analysis: Wembley Park, Brent Only covers development within the 2015 master plan. Nine Elms, Wandsworth Only covers schemes by major house builders, Ballymore and Battersea Power Station Development Company (therefore excluding Bellway and the Bellway/L&Q joint venture) that are set within the boundary of Wandsworth Borough Council. East Village, London Legacy Development Corporation (LLDC) Excludes conversions (2,818 units completed in 2014). Projections Projections are based upon delivery projections provided by developers and local planning authorities between January and May 2018. In some cases, original permissions may be revised or additional permissions submitted, which may result in projections not exactly matching the original site size. In other cases, full projected annual completions data is not available at all or does not account for the whole site. In these cases, an implied projection has been calculated based on current and planned delivery rates. AX7 Annex A. Build out rates In the following cases, an implied projection of build out has been calculated by the MHCLG Review Team: Barking Riverside, London Borough of Barking & Dagenham (LBBD) Implied projection based on information provided on site visit. The black bar on graphs AX9 and AX10 denotes length of regulatory and build out stages prior to December 2017. North West Bicester, Cherwell Implied projection for later phases based on data provided for first two phases of development. Molior London data Molior is a market research practice who collates data on sales, land and planning, sites pre- planing and Built to Rent. A Molior dataset has been used in some graphs, covering 18 sites of 500 units or more that are currently building out with over 10% of private units completed. These sites are in London only, and build out data is only available for the market housing on these sites – completions data does not include any affordable housing units. As all of these sites are currently building out, an implied projection has been calculated based on the current rate of build out. Molior does not collect affordable housing completions data, therefore the build out rate for sites in the Molior database has been calculated on the basis of market housing completions data. Molior has reviewed the analysis undertaken by the MHCLG Review Team and has advised that the methodology and information used are accurate for the development projects examined as of the latest data returns, dated March 2018. AX8 Annex A. Build out rates 1 Start to finish Stage 1 and 2: Regulatory and build out stage length Wembley Park, Brent* (4,873 units) Arborfield Green, Wokingham (2,000 units) Great Kneighton, Cambridge (2,300 units) Trumpington Meadows, Cambridge (1,187 units) Graven Hill, Cherwell (2,100 units) Ledsham Garden Village, Cheshire West & Chester (2,000 units) Nine Elms, Wandsworth (8,477 units) South West Bicester, Cherwell (2,436 units) Great Western Park, South Oxfordshire (3,417 units) Site & & LPA Site Western Expansion Area, Milton Keynes (6,546 units) Eastern Quarry, Ebbsfleet Development Corporation (6,250 units) Barking Riverside, LBBD (8,861 units) East Village, London Legacy Development Corporation (2,000 units) North West Bicester, Cherwell* (6,093 units) North Greenwich, Greenwich (15,737 units) London sites (Full/Hybrid applications) (Molior data) London sites (Outline applications) (Molior data) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Time (years) 1A - From application to outline permission granted 1B - From outline permission granted to first detailed application 1C - From first detailed application to first detailed permission 2A - From first detailed permission to first start (dwelling) 2B - From first start to final completion (Actual) 2B From first start to final completion (Projected) Note: Stage 1 and 2 - from outline application to final completion (projected). Asterisk (*) denotes hybrid application. For Barking Riverside, the black bar denotes length of regulatory and build out stages prior to December 2017. For Barking Riverside and North West Bicester, an implied projection for Stage 2B has been calculated. For London sites in the Molior dataset, Stage 2B length is calculated on the basis of market housing only as Molior data does not include affordable housing completions. The mean length of each stage has been calculated for London sites in the Molior dataset. AX9 Annex A. Build out rates 2 Stage 1: Regulatory Stage 1: Regulatory stage length Arborfield Green, Wokingham (2,000 units) North West Bicester, Cherwell* (6,093 units) Wembley Park, Brent* (4,873 units) Ledsham Garden Village, Cheshire West & Chester (2,000 units) Nine Elms, Wandsworth (8,477 units) Great Kneighton, Cambridge (2,300 units) Trumpington Meadows, Cambridge (1,187 units) Graven Hill, Cherwell (2,100 units) North Greenwich, Greenwich (15,737 units) Site & & LPA Site South West Bicester, Cherwell (2,436 units) East Village, London Legacy Development Corporation (2,000 units) Western Expansion Area, Milton Keynes (6,546 units) Great Western Park, South Oxfordshire (3,417 units) Eastern Quarry, Ebbsfleet Development Corporation (6,250 units) Barking Riverside, LBBD (8,861 units) London sites (Full/Hybrid applications) (Molior data) London sites (Outline applications) (Molior data) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Time (years) 1A - From application to outline permission granted 1B - From outline permission granted to first detailed application 1C - From first detailed application to first detailed permission Note: Stage 1 - from outline application to first detailed permission. Asterisk (*) denotes hybrid application. For Barking Riverside, the black bar denotes length of regulatory and build out stages prior to December 2017. The mean length of each stage has been calculated for London sites in the Molior dataset. AX10 Annex A. Build out rates Stage 1: Stage length by site size 12 10 8 6 y = 4E-05x + 4.1175 Time (years) R² = 0.0045 4 y = -2E-05x + 2.0543 R² = 0.0002 2 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Site size (units) Case study sites London (Molior) Note: Stage 1 - from outline application to first detailed permission. Excludes Barking Riverside. AX11 Annex A. Build out rates Stage 1A: Stage length by site size 7 6 5 4 Time (years) 3 y = -6E-05x + 2.74 R² = 0.0299 2 y = 0.0007x + 0.4884 R² = 0.2079 1 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Site size (units) Case study sites London (Molior) Note: Stage 1A - from application to outline permission granted. Excludes Barking Riverside; and hybrid and full applications. AX12 Annex A. Build out rates Stage 1B: Length by site size 6 5 4 y = -0.0008x + 2.8061 y = 0.0001x + 1.1761 R² = 0.1185 R² = 0.0794 3 Time (years) 2 1 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Site size (units) Case study sites London (Molior) Note: Stage 1B - from outline permission granted to first detailed permission. Excludes Barking Riverside; and hybrid and full applications. AX13 Annex A. Build out rates Stage 1C: Stage length by site size 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Time (years) 1.5 y = 7E-06x + 0.5152 1.0 R² = 0.0013 0.5 y = -9E-05x + 0.4978 R² = 0.1893 0.0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Site size (units) Case study sites London (Molior) Note: Stage 1C - from first detailed application to first detailed permission.