Dinámica del uso del suelo y cambio climático en la planeación sistemática para la conservación : un caso de estudio en la cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta Mélanie Kolb To cite this version: Mélanie Kolb. Dinámica del uso del suelo y cambio climático en la planeación sistemática para la conservación : un caso de estudio en la cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta. Geography. Université Toulouse le Mirail - Toulouse II, 2013. Español. NNT : 2013TOU20011. tel-00907915 HAL Id: tel-00907915 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00907915 Submitted on 22 Nov 2013 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. 5)µ4& &OWVFEFMPCUFOUJPOEV %0$503"5%&-6/*7&34*5²%&506-064& %ÏMJWSÏQBS Université Toulouse 2 Le Mirail (UT2 Le Mirail) Cotutelle internationale Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México - Instituto de Geografía 1SÏTFOUÏFFUTPVUFOVFQBS Mélanie KOLB le 30 mai 2013 5JUSF Dinámica del uso del suelo y cambio climático en la planeación sistemática para la conservación: un caso de estudio en la cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta ²DPMFEPDUPSBMF et discipline ou spécialité ED TESC : Géographie et aménagement 6OJUÏEFSFDIFSDIF Laboratoire GEODE Géographie de l'environnement %JSFDUFVS T EFʾÒTF Leopoldo Galicia Sarmiento, Instituto de Geografía, UNAM Martin Paegelow, GEODE, Université Toulouse-Le Mirail Jean-François Mas, Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, UNAM Jury: César Cantú Ayala, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo Leon (Rapporteur) Patricia Koleff Osorio, CONOBIO, México (Rapporteur) Arturo Flores Martinez, SEMARNAT, México Luciana Porter Bolland, Instituto de Ecología, Veracruz UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTÓNOMA DE MÉXICO Posgrado en Geografía Instituto de Geografía Dinámica del uso del suelo y cambio climático en la planeación sistemática para la conservación: un caso de estudio en la cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta TESIS PARA OPTAR POR EL GRADO DE: DOCTOR EN GEOGRAFÍA PRESENTA: Melanie Kolb TUTOR PRINCIPAL Leopoldo Galicia Sarmiento, Instituto de Geografía, UNAM Martin Paegelow, Laboratoire de Geographie de l’Environnement, Universidad Le Mirail, Toulouse, Francia MIEMBROS DEL COMITÉ TUTORIAL Jean-François Mas, Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, UNAM Enrique Martínez Meyer, Instituto de Biología, UNAM MÉXICO, D. F. enero 2013 Synopsis This study explores how to use techniques of prospective analysis in order to incorporate dynamic factors that put into risk the persistence of biodiversity into systematic conservation planning. Land use and cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) represent the main impacts and future threats to biodiversity and thus were the subject of analyses that provided information on prioritization for conservation actions. Since LUCC, CC and biodiversity loss, as well as the related socio-economic structures take place on a regional scale, this work is based on a large watershed in southern Mexico, the Grijalva- Usumacinta Basin. This basin is not only one of the most important areas for biological diversity, but is also renowned for its cultural complexity and hydrological importance and the multiple environmental and social problems that put biodiversity in peril. The main finding is that deforestation and forest degradation are the main LUCC processes and their high rates and strong future trends make it difficult to get to the point of forest transition in the near future, when deforestation and regeneration are balanced. Nevertheless, the scenario analysis shows that it is possible to influence LUCC trajectories in a substantial way in order to halt negative effects over biodiversity in the next decade. CC represents an additional threat to biodiversity difficult to evaluate, especially if the multiple synergistic effects between CC and LUCC are considered that could lead to much higher impacts. Anyway, the analysis showed that even until 2030 CC could have impacts on bioclimatic variables and species composition that could further hamper conservation efforts in the study area. Criteria for a proactive prioritization of sites for conservation are proposed based on scenarios of LUCC and CC. These criteria are used to identify hot spots (high probability of LUCC and severe CC impacts) and refuges (high probability of permanence and minor CC impacts). This joint analysis of CCUS and CC shows that there are differences between the conservation and the probable scenario; the effort needed to conserve the biodiversity contained in the priority sites in the conservation scenario is considerable less. The spatial pattern of hot spots and refuges of change is very similar across scenarios, despite the differences in absolute areas compromised by each. I Regional patterns and processes of deforestation and regeneration in the Neo-tropic: Recent tendencies in Southern Mexico In the Neotropics, increased rates of land use and cover change (LUCC) and a strong deforestation trend in the second half of the 20th century have caused environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. This study analyzed patterns and processes of LUCC and deforestation for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed, one of the hydrologically and biologically most important watersheds in southern Mexico in face of the discussion about beginning forest transitions in the Neotropics. Maps of land use/cover for 1992, 2002 and 2007 derived from satellite and aerial imagery were analyzed in order to test the hypothesis of changing trends on a regional scale. Change rates and probabilities were calculated for two time periods and dominant LUCC processes were identified. LUCC is complex and cannot be explained by the predominant linear deforestation narrative alone. A crucial finding was an unusually high rate of forest degradation for all primary forest types, being 1.7 times the area of forest deforestation; and that deforestation processes occurs mainly in secondary forests. Agricultural activities fostered by public policies are the principal drivers for LUCC, among which pastures have the highest impact on deforestation. Deforestation and LUCC rates and probabilities have stagnated, and natural reforestation has increased. Although these trends are essential for the onset of forest transition, deforestation and degradation outweigh by far vegetation regrowth. Scenarios and story lines: approach to understand proximate and underlying drivers of land use change in southern Mexico The manuscript presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, underlying drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of political, socio-economic and natural drivers of LUCC. The quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are identified and detrimental policies and policy II options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are provided in the story lines. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction of natural forests, while the local socio-economic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies between 1993 and 2007: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. In the alternative scenario further policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development are addressed but because of the time lag of implementation still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation and sustainable development. Evaluating drivers of land use change and transition potential models in a complex landscape in southern Mexico Understanding and analysis of drivers of land use and cover change (LUCC) is a requisite to reduce and manage impacts and consequences of LUCC. The aim of the present study is to analyze drivers of LUCC in southern Mexico and to see how these are used by different conceptual and methodological approaches for generating transition potential maps and how this influences the effectiveness to produce reliable LUCC models. Spatial factors were tested for their relation to main LUCC processes and their importance as drivers for the periods 1993-2002 and 2002-2007 was evaluated by hierarchical partitioning analysis and logistic regression models. Tested variables included environmental and biophysical variables, location measures of infrastructure and of existing land use, fragmentation and demographic and social variables. The most important