Study on Sustainable Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in District Swat By Muhammad Suleman Bacha A thesis submitted to the University of Peshawar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Sciences DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR Session: 2011-2012 APPROVAL SHEET Study on Sustainable Livelihoods, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in District Swat By Muhamamd Suleman Bacha A thesis submitted to the University of Peshawar in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) in Environmental Sciences Approved by DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR Session 2011-2012 DECLARATION I hereby declare that this dissertation is the outcome of my own efforts and has not been published anywhere else before. The matter quoted in the text has been properly referred and acknowledged. ______________________ Muhammad Suleman Bacha ii Dedicated To My loving parents iii Table of Contents Page No ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ACRONYMS .............................................................................................. xiv ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ xvi CHAPTER I ................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Statement ............................................................................................... 3 1.3 Hypotheses ........................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Objectives of the study ......................................................................................... 4 CHAPTER II .................................................................................................................. 5 DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA ............................................................................. 5 2.1 District Geography ............................................................................................... 5 2.2 Population............................................................................................................. 5 2.3 Climate ................................................................................................................. 6 2.4 The River Swat ..................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Livelihood Sources ............................................................................................. 13 2.5.1 Agriculture ................................................................................................... 13 2.5.2 Livestock ..................................................................................................... 16 2.5.3 Fisheries ....................................................................................................... 16 2.5.4 Forestry ........................................................................................................ 17 2.5.5 Tourism ........................................................................................................ 19 2.5.6 Minerals and Industry .................................................................................. 20 CHAPTER III .............................................................................................................. 21 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ...................................................................................... 21 3.1 Climate Change .................................................................................................. 21 3.2 Climate Change in Pakistan ............................................................................... 22 3.4 CC Vulnerability of Pakistan ............................................................................. 24 3.5 CC Impacts on Livelihood Sources .................................................................... 27 3.6 Adaptation to climate change ............................................................................. 29 3.7 Role of Public Perceptions in CC Policy ........................................................... 31 CHAPTER IV .............................................................................................................. 36 MATERIAL AND METHODS ................................................................................... 36 iv 4.1 Research Framework .......................................................................................... 36 4.2 Data Collection ................................................................................................... 36 4.2.1 Structured Household Questionnaires ......................................................... 38 4.2.1.1 Sample Size ........................................................................................... 38 4.2.1.2 Pre-Testing of Questionnaires ........................................................ 39 4.2.1.3 Questionnaire Distribution .................................................................... 40 4.2.2 Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) ........................................................... 42 4.2.3 Interviews .................................................................................................... 42 4.2.4 Vulnerability Matrix .................................................................................... 42 4.3 Data Analysis ..................................................................................................... 43 4.3.1 Quantitative Data ......................................................................................... 43 4.3.2 Qualitative Data ........................................................................................... 44 4.3.3 Statistical Analysis ...................................................................................... 44 4.3.3.1 Trend analysis ....................................................................................... 44 4.3.3.2 Chi-square analysis ............................................................................... 45 4.3.3.3 Calculation of Severity Scores for Natural Hazards ............................. 45 4.4 Uncertainty and Limitation of the Data.............................................................. 45 CHAPTER V ............................................................................................................... 47 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION (PART-I) ................................................................. 47 PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING AND BELIEFS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE ...... 47 5.1 Trend analysis of temperature and rainfall data ................................................. 47 5.1.1 Increase in Temperature .............................................................................. 47 5.1.2 Decrease in Rainfall..................................................................................... 49 5.2 Climate Change knowledge ............................................................................... 52 5.2.1 The Term “Climate change” ........................................................................ 52 5.2.2 Increase in Temperature .............................................................................. 53 5.2.3 Erratic Rainfall ............................................................................................ 56 5.2.4 Extreme weather events ............................................................................... 57 5.2.5 Changes in biodiversity ............................................................................... 57 5.2.6 Melting of Ice-caps or Glaciers ................................................................... 63 5.3 Causes of Climate Change ................................................................................. 66 5.3.1 Deforestation ............................................................................................... 68 5.3.2 Natural Causes ............................................................................................. 70 5.3.3 Greenhouse Gases ........................................................................................ 71 5.3.4 Combustion of Fossil fuels .......................................................................... 71 v 5.3.5 Act of God/Nature ....................................................................................... 72 5.4 Impacts of Climate Change ................................................................................ 72 5.5 Sources of Climate Change Information ............................................................ 76 5.5.1 Local Gatherings .......................................................................................... 76 5.5.2 Friends and Family ...................................................................................... 77 5.5.3 School/College/University ........................................................................... 78 5.5.4 Media ........................................................................................................... 78 5.5.5 Government and NGOs