Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland Koala Habitat Areas (KHA) v2.0 Locally Refined Koala Habitat Areas (LRKHA) v2.0 Koala Priority Areas (KPA) v1.0 Koala Habitat Restoration Areas (KHRA) v1.0 Report version 2.0 Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland: Report v2.0 Prepared by: Biodiversity Assessment Team, Queensland Herbarium, Science and Technology Division, Department of Environment and Science © State of Queensland, 2021. Copyright The Queensland Government supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of its information. The copyright in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia (CC BY) licence. Under this licence you are free, without having to seek our permission, to use this publication in accordance with the licence terms. You must keep intact the copyright notice and attribute the State of Queensland as the source of the publication. For more information on this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/deed.en Disclaimer This document has been prepared with all due diligence and care, based on the best available information at the time of publication. The department holds no responsibility for any errors or omissions within this document. Any decisions made by other parties based on this document are solely the responsibility of those parties. Information contained in this document is from a number of sources and, as such, does not necessarily represent government or departmental policy. Citation Department of Environment and Science (DES) 8 September 2021. Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland: Report version 2.0. Koala Habitat Areas (KHA) v2.0, Locally Refined Koala Habitat Areas (LRKHA) v2.0, Koala Priority Areas (KPA) v1.0, Koala Habitat Restoration Areas (KHRA) v1.0. Brisbane: Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government. Acknowledgements The project team would like to acknowledge the invaluable contribution of the Koala Expert Panel, namely Associate Professor Jonathan Rhodes, Dr Alistair Melzer, Ms Antra Hood and Mr Al Mucci, and a specially formed Koala Advisory Group of koala ecologists and spatial modelling experts including Associate Professor Jonathan Rhodes, Dr Alistair Melzer, Dr Hawthorne Beyer, Professor Clive McAlpine, and Dr Bill Ellis. Members of the Biodiversity Assessment Team, DES significantly contributed to the project. The project team would like to acknowledge the time and effort taken by local government staff to compile and provide information. Members of the Queensland Herbarium contributed to the high value regrowth and LRKHA update including Gordon Guymer, Tim Ryan, Andrew Franks, Chris Appelman, Ron Booth, John Neldner, Hans Dillewaard, Dale Richter, Steven Howell, Courtney Miles, Harriet Preece and Stephen Trent. Please contact [email protected] for any queries relating to the habitat mapping. Please contact [email protected] for any queries relating to the Koala Strategy. ii Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland: Report v2.0 Revision history Version Date Description 1.0 20 January 2020 This release includes the following: Koala habitat areas (KHA v1.0), based on: - Regional ecosystem mapping version 11, produced by the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Herbarium. December 2018. Updated January 2020. - High Value Regrowth mapping, produced by the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Herbarium. November 2019. Updated January 2020 - Removal of core habitat from islands (other than North Stradbroke, South Stradbroke and Bribie), that either don’t contain koala records or would not be able to sustain a koala population. - Core koala habitat area defined by twelve rules (koala habitat suitability categories 4–10). - Study area boundary based on South East Queensland Regional Plan 2017 “Shaping SEQ” (DILGP 2017). Locally refined koala habitat areas (LRKHA) mapping (v1.0). Report v1.0 1.1 22 August 2020 This release includes the following: Locally Refined Koala Habitat Areas (LRKHA v1.1): - Based on a review of high value regrowth across the study area. - Areas of HVR were assessed against a preclear model to determine core habitat and subsequent areas were included where they met the model rules for inclusion. Koala Habitat Areas (KHA v1.0) – no changes. Koala Priority Area (KPA) mapping (v1.0) – no changes. Koala Habitat Restoration Areas (KHRA) mapping (v1.0) – no changes. Report v1.1 updated to include: - LRKHA v1.1 results. - Minor editorial updates to improve readability. - Inclusion of KPA and KHRA documentation for completeness. 2.0 8 September 2021 This release includes the following: Koala habitat areas (KHA v2.0), based on: - Regional ecosystem mapping version 12 (with some small remnant additions, supplied 2 June 2021), produced by the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Herbarium. - Reviewed and updated where appropriate the koala suitability rank of regional ecosystems and utility of tree species. - High Value Regrowth (HVR) mapping, produced by the Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Herbarium (supplied 26/02/2021). - HVR attributed to better reflect historical clearing and maintain consistency between remnant and HVR. iii Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland: Report v2.0 Version Date Description Locally refined koala habitat areas (LRKHA) mapping (v2.0) is a product of LRKHA v1.1 with the following removed: - LRKHA v1.1 areas which have now become KHA v2.0. - Areas of HVR which didn’t meet the criteria for remnant or high value regrowth. - PMAV on Cat X (certified on or before 7/2/2020) (mainly slivers). - Small areas and slivers. Koala Priority Area (KPA) mapping (v1.0) – no changes. Koala Habitat Restoration Areas (KHRA) mapping (v1.0) - No changes to the delineation of KHRA. - KHRA map background updated with latest KHA. Report v2.0 - Updated KHA and LRKHA maps and results. - Updated RE suitability and koala tree utility tables. - Minor editorial updates to improve readability. iv Spatial modelling for koalas in South East Queensland: Report v2.0 Table of contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Project Scope ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Study area........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Consultation ........................................................................................................................................ 3 1.4 Conceptual model ............................................................................................................................... 4 2 Core koala habitat areas ............................................................................................................................. 6 2.1 Approach............................................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Data sources ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Koala occurrence records ................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Regional ecosystem suitability categorisation .................................................................................... 9 2.4.1 Regional ecosystem suitability classification ................................................................................. 9 2.4.2 Tree species utility ......................................................................................................................... 9 2.4.3 Vegetation cover classes ............................................................................................................. 10 2.5 Species distribution modelling .......................................................................................................... 11 2.5.1 Maxent modelling ......................................................................................................................... 11 2.5.2 Maxent model validation .............................................................................................................. 12 2.6 Koala habitat decision matrix ............................................................................................................ 12 2.6.1 Koala habitat map ........................................................................................................................ 13 2.6.2 Validation of koala habitat mapping ............................................................................................. 16 2.7 Results .............................................................................................................................................. 16 2.7.1 Regional ecosystem suitability categorisation ............................................................................. 16 2.7.2 Species distribution modelling ....................................................................................................