Chicago CONGESTION TRENDS REPORT JULY 2018 The analysis in this report was conducted by Transpo Group using data provided by INRIX. The only Transportation Network Company that provided data for this report was Lyft. The conclusions of this report do not necessarily reflect the official policy positions of Lyft, INRIX, Transpo Group, or the City of Chicago. Table of Contents Executive Summary .....................................................................................................1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................3 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 7 Travel Demand & Capacity Drivers ....................................................................11 Performance Trends .................................................................................................19 Findings & Conclusions ...........................................................................................27 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK List of Figures 1. Chicago Study Area Map...............................................................................................................................................6 2. GDP of Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metropolitan Area (2013 - 2016) ......................................................12 3. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin Metropolitan Area Employment Rate (2014 - 2017) ................................12 4. Chicago Gasoline and Midwest Diesel Prices (2014-2017)........................................................................ 13 5. Changes in Driver Population and Vehicle Use ................................................................................................14 6. Quarterly US E-Commerce (2014-2017) ...............................................................................................................15 7. Divvy bikes-share ridership in Chicago (2014- 2017) ......................................................................................16 8. Total On-Street Bikeways ...........................................................................................................................................17 9. Annual Transit Ridership in Chicago (2014-2017) ........................................................................................... 20 10. Critical Links’ Speed and Volume Change ...........................................................................................................21 11. Downtown Chicago Lyft Pickups vs Roadway Speeds (Fridays at 5PM) ...........................................22 12. Daily Lyft Trips in Chicago (2014 - 2017) ..............................................................................................................23 13. Average Number of Lyft Trips (October 2017) ..................................................................................................23 14. Density of Lyft Pickups Per Census Tract in Chicago (Fridays at 5pm) ............................................. 24 15. Average Daily Lyft Trips and % of Average Daily Trips (ADT) ..................................................................25 16. Lyft Line Growth (2014-2018) .................................................................................................................................. 26 List of Tables 1. Congestion Trends Report Data Sources ..............................................................................................................9 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Executive Summary The evolution of Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) in This study the recent past has led major cities to attempt to evaluate the impacts of TNC services on mobility, equity, and congestion. found that Lyft trips on key The results of various studies concerning TNC contributions to congestion have been mixed. A recent evaluation of Lyft operations in New York City revealed study roadways that Lyft was not the primary contributor to the growth in congestion between represent less 2013 and 2017. Transpo Group sought to understand how recent and emerging than 4 percent trends in the Chicago metropolitan area (“Chicagoland”) might shed new light on of daily roadway the issue of TNC services and their contributions to congestion management. volumes. Understanding this issue requires acknowledgment that congestion and transportation system performance is a complex multi-variable problem. Congestion is driven by numerous factors including changes in demand, capacity, and mode split. Prioritization of bus, bicycle, and pedestrian activity can also increase congestion for motor vehicles, particularly when travel and parking The increase lanes are eliminated; in many cities, TNCs perform a vital function by reducing the demand for parking and connecting people to public transportation. in Lyft service since 2015 has KEY FINDINGS not caused a This study explored the drivers of congestion and evaluated various aspects corresponding of transportation system performance in the Chicago metropolitan region. Transpo Group worked to identify various publicly-available data sources related reduction in to economic growth, population and demographic trends, and transportation average speeds system management. After evaluating the drivers of demand, we obtained on Chicago’s Lyft data in order to understand how Lyft serves Chicagoland trips. freeways and streets. Chicago Congestion Trends Report • July 2018 1 Our evaluation of the congestion drivers revealed that trip growth is being driven by economic activity, justified by the following findings: Population is declining slightly while the fraction of employed people in the region is growing. Non-motorized commute trip share has increased, as well as the number of bicycle facilities . Speeds are declining throughout Chicago but fell most dramatically in the busiest neighborhoods in 2014, prior to the growth of Lyft service. On key study roadways, Lyft trips represent less than 4 percent of daily trips. Lyft Line now serves 30 percent of all Lyft trips in the City of Chicago. Additionally, Lyft and TNC registrations have grown by 339 percent while Lyft trips have increased by 1,476 percent. This points to the ability of the TNC ride-hailing model and complex management systems to efficiently route numerous trips. Travel speed reductions in River North, Streeterville, and the Loop, often understood as an indicator of congestion, are not concomitant with growth in Lyft trips. Based on this key finding, summarized on page 22, we can conclusively say that the increase in Lyft service since 2015 has not caused a corresponding reduction in average speeds. 2 July 2018 • Chicago Congestion Trends Report Congestion is generally perceived as an increase Introduction in travel times over a nominal value, a lack of free-flowing vehicles or The growth of transportation network company (TNC) services, such those provided by on-demand, pedestrians, and difficulty shared-ride mobility platforms, has enabled new of access to the facility economic opportunities and travel options for by a variety of users. It is people throughout cities all over the world. characterized by the extent of congestion, the duration Access to reliable transportation at a reasonable, known, and of congestion, and the agreed-upon cost has aided people in a wide variety of economic severity of the congestion. situations. TNCs have improved access for disadvantaged communities, people who live in areas under-served or not While congestion may served by transit, and people who seek to reduce their impact be seen as an indicator on climate change by choosing to not own a car or occupy of a thriving economy, valuable space on congested urban streets by parking a car. congestion that causes stop-and-go conditions TRANSPORTATION PERFORMANCE has a deleterious effect MODELING IS COMPLICATED on carbon emissions The very nature of TNC operations, however, is that TNC and can significantly ridership growth generally leads to more TNC vehicles operating impact economic activity. on the roadway network. This growth must be understood in Congestion impedes the overall context of congestion management, however, and predictable movement, may not be the sole contribution or even a major contribution increases crash rates, and to increased congestion. Understanding how TNC network contributes to undesirable and anti-social behavior growth affects congestion requires an independent and that threatens people objective assessment of transportation system performance. walking and people using Objectivity is achieved in such a study through the use bicycles. Addressing of widely-available, public agency data, aggregated congestion leads to and anonymized location-based data that is inherently increased economic objective, and analysis of changes in TNC use against competitiveness and an a baseline condition for TNC operations. improved quality of life. Chicago Congestion Trends Report • July 2018 3 It is clear from extensive research that many factors influence the growth of congestion. Simply examining traffic volume, This study was prepared by average speeds, and travel times can indicate the performance Transpo Group, a consulting of a facility but such an examination cannot address complex firm with expertise in socio-economic factors that lead to increased demand. Any transportation planning effort to thoroughly understand the drivers that influence