RECONSIDERING THE CONCEPT OF INFLUENCE: THE CASE OF TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST (2003-2014) A Ph.D. Dissertation by EYÜP ERSOY Department of International Relations İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara June 2016 to my wife Merve RECONSIDERING THE CONCEPT OF INFLUENCE: THE CASE OF TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST (2003-2014) The Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University by EYÜP ERSOY In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA June 2016 ABSTRACT RECONSIDERING THE CONCEPT OF INFLUENCE: THE CASE OF TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH THE MIDDLE EAST (2003-2014) Ersoy, Eyüp Ph. D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ersel Aydınlı June 2016 This thesis propounds a new conceptual analysis of influence in international relations. First, it advances a novel definition of influence, with additional clarifications on the relationship between influence and power(s). Second, this thesis addresses the causes of states’ quest for influence in international relations. This thesis identifies three motives of security, economy, and identity as existential imperatives of state conduct to seek influence in international relations. Third, this thesis presents an analysis of the patterns and causes of variations among these motives in states’ regional foreign policies. Finally, Turkey’s dyadic relationships in the Middle East between 2003 and 2014, specifically with the states of Syria, Iran, and Palestine, constitutes the case study of this thesis. Keywords: Influence, Power, Motive, Turkey, the Middle East iii ÖZET NÜFUZ KAVRAMINI YENİDEN DÜŞÜNMEK: TÜRKİYE’NİN ORTA DOĞU İLE İLİŞKİLERİ ÖRNEĞİ (2003-2014) Ersoy, Eyüp Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Ersel Aydınlı Haziran 2016 Bu tez, uluslararası ilişkilerde nüfuzun yeni bir kavramsal analizini ortaya koymaktadır. İlk olarak, nüfuz ve güç(ler) arasındaki ilişkiye dair ilave izahlar ile birlikte, nüfuzun yeni bir tanımını öne sürmektedir. İkinci olarak, bu tez, devletlerin uluslararası ilişkilerdeki nüfuz arayışlarının nedenlerini ele almaktadır. Bu tez, güvenlik, ekonomi ve kimlik saiklerini uluslararası ilişkilerde nufüz arayışındaki devlet icrasının varoluşsal zorunlulukları olarak tanımlamaktadır. Üçüncü olarak, bu tez, devletlerin bölgesel dış politikalarında bu saikler arasındaki çeşitlenmelerin şekilleri ve nedenlerine dair bir analiz sunmaktadır. Son olarak, Suriye, İran ve Filistin devletleri özelinde olmak üzere, Türkiye’nin Orta Doğu’da 2003 ile 2014 yılları arasındaki ikili ilişkileri bu tezin vaka çalışmasını oluşturmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Nüfuz, Güç, Saik, Türkiye, Orta Doğu iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In this thesis, I write somewhere that research is a journey of curiosity for a rendezvous with truth. In this journey, a challenging part of which comes to an end with this thesis, Prof. Dr. Ersel Aydınlı has been an unfailing source of inspiration and fortitude. Words are not enough, indeed, to express my gratitude. I have also had the privilege to have the guidance and encouragement of several distinguished scholars throughout this journey. Asst. Prof. Özgür Özdamar, Prof. Dr. Muhittin Ataman, and Prof. Dr. Şaban Kardaş deserve my most profound thanks. This journey has taken me to different parts of the world, from London to Mumbai, from Sarajevo to Dar es Salaam, in which I have met amazing companions. I always cherish my memories, sometimes scholarly, with them. I would also like to thank TUBITAK for providing scholarship. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT................................................................................................................iii ÖZET...........................................................................................................................iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS............................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS........................................................................................vi-x LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................................xi-xii LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................xiii-xiv CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION.................................................................................1 CHAPTER II: THEORIZING INFLUENCE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS.9 2.1 Power in International Relations………………………………………...11 2.1.1 Power as Capacity, Power as Capability………………………14 2.1.2 Power Accumulation…………………………………..………16 2.2 Influence in International Relations…………………………………......18 2.2.1 Definition of Influence…………………...……………………22 2.2.2 The Relationship between Power and Influence…...………….27 2.2.3 A Taxonomy of Influence……………………………..………32 2.3 What are a State’s Motives to Seek Influence in Sub-regional Dyadic Relationships?.................................................................................................35 2.3.1 Definitions of Relevant Concepts………………………..……36 2.3.2 Security……………………………………………...…………45 2.3.2.1 Unit-Level Security……………………………...…..49 2.3.2.2 Dyad-Level Security……………………...………….51 2.3.2.3 Regional-level Security…………………...…………53 2.3.2.4 International-level Security…………………..……...55 2.3.3 Economy………………………………...……………………..58 2.3.3.1 Trade……………………………………...………….63 2.3.3.2 Investment………………………...………………....66 2.3.3.3 Energy…………………………………………...…..72 vi 2.3.4 Identity……………………………………………...…………77 2.3.4.1 Person Identity………………………...……………..87 2.3.4.2 Role Identity……………………………...………….89 2.3.4.3 Social Identity………………………………...……...93 2.4 Why Do a State’s Motives to Seek Influence in Sub-regional Dyadic Relationships Differ among Each Other?.......................................................97 2.5 Why Do a State’s Motives to Seek Influence in Sub-regional Dyadic Relationships Differ within Each Other?......................................................102 2.6 What is the Relationship between Motive and Action in a State’s Sub- regional Dyadic Relationships?....................................................................108 2.6.1 Hierarchy of Motives………………………….……………..110 2.7 Brief Review…………………………………………………….……..112 CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY………………………………….…………….114 3.1 Research Design………………………………………………….…….118 3.1.1 Unit of Analysis…………………………….………………..121 3.1.2 Measurement………………………………….……………...122 3.1.3 Sampling………………………………….…………………..124 3.1.4 Case Study……………………………………………………129 3.1.4.1 Comparative Case Study……………………….…..132 3.2 Data Collection……………………………………….………………..134 3.2.1 Available Qualitative Data……………………………….…..136 3.2.2 Available Quantitative Data……………………………….…139 3.3 Data Analysis…………………………………………………….…….142 3.3.1 Process Tracing………………………………………………144 3.3.2 Descriptive Statistics…………………………………………146 3.3.3 Discourse Analysis…………………………….……………..147 3.4 Methodological Limitations……………………………………………149 3.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………..………151 CHAPTER IV : TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH SYRIA…………………….…154 4.1 Turkey’s Security and Syria……………………………………………164 4.1.1 Unit-Level Security…………………………………………..165 4.1.2 Dyad-Level Security…………………………………………168 4.1.3 Regional-Level Security……………………………………...173 vii 4.1.4 International-Level Security……………………………….....177 4.2 Turkey’s Economy and Syria…………………………………………..179 4.2.1 Trade………………………………………………………….181 4.2.2 Investment……………………………………………………188 4.2.3 Energy………………………………………………….…….193 4.3 Turkey’s Identity and Syria…………………………………………….197 4.3.1 Person Identity………………………………………………..199 4.3.2 Role Identity…………………………………….……………202 4.3.3 Social Identity………………………………………………..206 4.4 Turkey’s Motives and Syria……………………………………………210 4.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………………..216 CHAPTER V: TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH IRAN………………………….219 5.1 Turkey’s Security and Iran……………………………………………..229 5.1.1 Unit-Level Security…………………………………………..231 5.1.2 Dyad-Level Security…………………………………………233 5.1.3 Regional-Level Security……………………………………...237 5.1.4 International-Level Security………………………………….241 5.2 Turkey’s Economy and Iran……………………………………………245 5.2.1 Trade………………………………………………………….246 5.2.2 Investment……………………………………………………251 5.2.3 Energy………………………………………………………..255 5.3 Turkey’s Identity and Iran…………………………………….………..261 5.3.1 Person Identity…………………………….………………….263 5.3.2 Role Identity………………………………………………….266 5.3.3 Social Identity………………………………………………..268 5.4 Turkey’s Motives and Iran…………………………….……………….272 5.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………………..276 CHAPTER VI : TURKEY’S RELATIONS WITH PALESTINE…………………279 6.1 Turkey’s Security and Palestine………………………………………..291 6.1.1 Unit-Level Security…………………………………………..294 6.1.2 Dyad-Level Security…………………………………………296 6.1.3 Regional-Level Security……………………………………...300 viii 6.1.4 International-Level Security………………………………….301 6.2 Turkey’s Economy and Palestine………………………………………303 6.2.1 Trade………………………………………………………….305 6.2.2 Investment……………………………………………………308 6.2.3 Energy………………………………………………………..311 6.3 Turkey’s Identity and Palestine………………………………………...312 6.3.1 Person Identity………………………………………………..313 6.3.2 Role Identity………………………………………………….316 6.3.3 Social Identity………………………………………………..320 6.4 Turkey’s Motives and Palestine………………………………………..326 6.5 Conclusion……………………………………………………………..328 CHAPTER VII: TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST (2003-2014)……………….331 7.1 Turkey’s Power and the Middle East…………………………………..332 7.2 Turkey’s Influence and the Middle East……………………………….336 7.3 Turkey’s Motives in the