3rd Menai Crossing: Strategic Business Case Welsh Government 3rd Menai Crossing Strategic Business Case May, 2016 AECOM 3rd Menai Crossing: Strategic Business Case Welsh Government Quality information Document name Ref Prepared for Prepared by Date Reviewed by rd Welsh 3 Menai Crossing Neil MacDonald Jun-16 Craig Bell Government Revision history Revision Revision date Details Name Position 0 Mar-16 First Draft Neil MacDonald Associate Director 1 Apr-16 Second Draft Neil MacDonald Associate Director 2 Jun-16 Third Draft Neil MacDonald Associate Director This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited for the sole use of our client (the “Client”) and in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM Limited and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM Limited, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM Limited. AECOM 3rd Menai Crossing: Strategic Business Case Welsh Government Contents INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 THIS DOCUMENT............................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 SCHEME CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................ 3 1.3 WELSH GOVERNMENT NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMME ......................................................................... 5 1.4 STRATEGIC OUTLINE CASE CHECKLIST ............................................................................................... 5 STRATEGIC CASE ......................................................................................................................................10 2.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................10 2.2 PROBLEM IDENTIFIED .......................................................................................................................10 2.3 SCOPE ...........................................................................................................................................27 2.4 OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................................................................28 2.5 STRATEGIC FIT ................................................................................................................................30 2.6 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL DRIVERS FOR CHANGE .................................................................................35 2.7 MEASURES FOR SUCCESS .................................................................................................................36 2.8 OPTIONS ASSESSED ........................................................................................................................38 2.9 CONSTRAINTS AND INTER-DEPENDENCIES ..........................................................................................49 2.10 STAKEHOLDERS ...............................................................................................................................49 2.11 IMPACT OF NOT CHANGING ................................................................................................................51 TRANSPORT CASE .....................................................................................................................................54 3.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................54 3.2 OPTIONS APPRAISED ........................................................................................................................54 3.3 ASSUMPTIONS .................................................................................................................................55 3.4 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL .....................................................................................................................56 3.5 APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLE ............................................................................................................60 3.6 VALUE FOR MONEY STATEMENT ........................................................................................................61 FINANCIAL CASE........................................................................................................................................63 4.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................63 4.2 APPROACH TO ASSESSING AFFORDABILITY .........................................................................................63 4.3 COSTS............................................................................................................................................64 4.4 BUDGETS/FUNDING COVER...............................................................................................................64 COMMERCIAL CASE ..................................................................................................................................67 5.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................67 5.2 OUTPUT BASED SPECIFICATION .........................................................................................................67 5.3 PROCUREMENT STRATEGY ...............................................................................................................67 MANAGEMENT CASE .................................................................................................................................71 6.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................71 6.2 EVIDENCE OF SIMILAR PROJECTS ......................................................................................................71 6.3 DEPENDENCIES WITH OTHER PROJECTS AND PROGRAMMES .................................................................71 6.4 GOVERNANCE, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND ROLES ....................................................................71 6.5 PROGRAMME/PROJECT PLAN AND REPORTING ...................................................................................72 6.6 ASSURANCE AND APPROVALS PLAN ....................................................................................................73 6.7 COMMUNICATION AND STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT ............................................................................73 6.8 RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY .........................................................................................................74 6.9 MONITORING AND EVALUATION..........................................................................................................74 6.10 PROJECT MANAGEMENT OPTIONS .....................................................................................................75 FINAL REMARKS ........................................................................................................................................78 7.1 SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................................78 7.2 NEXT STEPS AND OTHER RECOMMENDED SHORT TERM TASKS ............................................................79 AECOM Introduction 01 1 3rd Menai Crossing: Strategic Business Case Welsh Government Introduction 1.1 This Document 1.1.1 This report sets out the Strategic Outline Case (SOC) for the 3rd Menai Crossing and has been structured in broad alignment with the Department for Transport (DfT) guidance for a SOC. 1.1.2 The 3rd Menai Crossing would likely take the form of a new bridge constructed across the Menai Strait between the Isle of Anglesey and Gwynedd County, North West Wales. Although the exact location and design specification of the new crossing will be the subject of further study, it will likely be located in the close vicinity of the existing A55 Britannia Bridge. The new crossing, would effectively double the capacity of the A55 and would seek to address a number of specific transport objectives relating to: · Improved journey times and journey time reliability on the A55; · Improved network reliability during peak periods (including holiday periods); · Enhanced levels of service crossing the Menai Strait for non-motorised users; and · Reduction in the frequency and severity of personal injury accidents. 1.1.3 The remainder of this document is structured as follows: · Section 2: Strategic Case. Setting out the robust case for change that fits with wider public policy objectives; · Section 3: Transport Case. Demonstrating that the scheme offers the scope to deliver good value for money; · Section 4: Financial Case. To demonstrate that the proposed case is affordable within the proposed funding arrangements; · Section 5: Commercial Case. To evidence the commercial viability of the scheme and the proposed procurement strategy to facilitate delivery; · Section 6: Management Case. To show that the scheme is deliverable within the context of project management; risk