ASEAN Rapid Assessment: The Impact of COVID-19 on Livelihoods across ASEAN one vision one identity one community Cover Photo: OlegD/Shutterstock.com ASEAN Rapid Assessment: The Impact of COVID-19 on Livelihoods across ASEAN The ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was established on 8 August 1967. The Member States are Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. The ASEAN Secretariat is based in Jakarta, Indonesia. For inquiries, contact: The ASEAN Secretariat Community Relations Division (CRD) 70A Jalan Sisingamangaraja Jakarta 12110, Indonesia Phone: (62 21) 724-3372, 726-2991 Fax: (62 21) 739-8234, 724-3504 E-mail: [email protected] Catalogue-in-Publication Data ASEAN Rapid Assessment : The Impact of COVID-19 on Livelihoods across ASEAN Jakarta, ASEAN Secretariat, November 2020 362.0959 1. ASEAN – Pandemic – Covid-19 2. Social Welfare – Labour – Education ISBN 978-602-5798-96-2 ASEAN: A Community of Opportunities for All The text of this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, provided proper acknowledgement is given and a copy containing the reprinted material is sent to the Community Relations Division (CRD) of the ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. General information on ASEAN appears online at the ASEAN Website: www.asean.org Copyright Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 2020. All rights reserved. ASEAN Rapid Assessment: The Impact of COVID-19 on Livelihoods across ASEAN was prepared by The Asia Foundation in partnership with The ASEAN Secretariat; and with the support of The Rockefeller Foundation and the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). The views expressed in this publication are the author’s alone and are not necessarily the views of the Australian Government or The Rockefeller Foundation. Executive summary The Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were affected early in the 2020 outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Thailand identified the first case on 13 January 2020. ASEAN Member States (AMS) and institutions responded rapidly, putting numerous measures and restrictions in place well before the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. As comparable restrictions were implemented throughout the world, economies suddenly slowed, domestic consumption and investment declined, global and regional supply chains were disrupted, and a global recession began. The impact of the pandemic threatens to increase inequalities and negate progress made on poverty reduction. The exclusion of vulnerable groups from policy responses risks further entrenching existing poverty and expanding the number of poor in ways that will be difficult to reverse; the situation will be compounded if multiple types of inequalities are allowed to rise simultaneously. Across Southeast Asia, workers have been hit hard by the pandemic’s economic toll, particularly those in informal labour markets. Additionally, unemployment rises rapidly: global data suggests that unemployment hit women workers the hardest. School closures have worsened the situation, affecting millions of students and their families. In ASEAN, and globally, policymakers must balance public health and economic concerns. The severity of the pandemic’s impact varies across countries, largely depending on the capacity of public health systems, the size of the informal sector, initial government containment measures, and economic stimulus responses. Evidence suggests that social distancing, quarantine measures, and travel restrictions help contain the spread of the virus, but these measures also create a serious economic cost, especially in countries that depend on trade and tourism. If ASEAN continues to experience outbreaks of the virus, it will be increasingly difficult to close parts of the economy because of lingering economic damage from the first wave and increased social and political opposition to shutdowns. This rapid assessment aims to support AMS and the ASEAN Secretariat in their efforts to respond to the pandemic. In doing so, it focuses on three crucial policy areas: Labour, Education and Training, and Social Welfare. The report begins with a brief assessment of the key economic and social impacts of the pandemic and follows with three sector chapters that provide a detailed analysis of current policy responses across AMS. The report continues with an overview of current ASEAN frameworks and mechanisms, concluding with a series of national- and regional-level recommendations for the consideration of AMS and the ASEAN Secretariat. It is difficult to underestimate the scope of the challenges ahead for the ASEAN region. In August 2020, the pandemic appears to be far from its peak; the global spread of cases continues to grow every day. Global estimates of the scale of economic and social impacts continue to grow: Poverty is increasing, more jobs are being lost, and more business are being closed. Despite these dire circumstances, there are opportunities for growth. As the pandemic and its impacts reach across borders, regional collaboration is more important than ever. AMS and institutions have a unique opportunity to work together, drawing on the region’s collective resources, to shape a new normal that can improve upon the livelihoods of citizens throughout the region. It is imperative that AMS invest in social and human capital to respond to a post-COVID-19 world flexibly and productively. Ultimately, shaping the future’s new normal means investing in people today. 5 Foreword The rapid assessment of the socio-economic impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the ASEAN region comes at a time when generating data and analysis has become a necessity in determining the most appropriate and targeted measures at mitigating the pandemic’s impacts. This report succinctly reviews the responses undertaken by ASEAN Member States thus far in the social welfare, labour, and education sectors. The report also identifies key challenges and scalable approaches and proposes a set of policy recommendations. On social welfare, the assessment points to the critical role of social protection measures in mitigating the impacts of the pandemic. Among the wide range of response measures, social assistance through targeted transfers was the dominant approach to reach poor households and individuals, particularly working age adults in the formal sector. Significant changes to the delivery of benefits and services were also made, including the use of digital platforms. However, there is much room for social protection measures to reach those in the informal sector as well as vulnerable groups, including older persons and persons with disabilities. The key recommendations of the report resonate with the Joint Statement of the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Social Welfare and Development: Mitigating Impacts of COVID-19 on Vulnerable Groups in ASEAN. This includes strengthening national social protection systems, that can be scaled-up to widen coverage, to facilitate access to social protection, and the concomitant public investments. On labour, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought devastating effects on the world of work. Lockdowns and related business disruptions, travel restrictions, school closures and other containment measures have had sudden and drastic impacts on workers and enterprises. Recognising this, on 14 May 2020, the ASEAN Labour Ministers adopted the Joint Statement of ASEAN Labour Ministers on Response to the Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Labour and Employment, solidifying its commitment to fully support ASEAN’s workforce amidst the impact of COVID-19 to the economies and industries of ASEAN Member States. Undoubtedly, this report provides invaluable inputs that contribute to the realisation of the Joint Statement. 6 On education, the assessment tells us that over 150 million children and youth in ASEAN may have been affected by school and university closures. In turn, these disruptions may cause long-run learning losses or lead to dropouts. The ongoing pandemic may also exacerbate existing inequalities owing to gender, poverty, and disability. Measures were immediately undertaken to protect the health and safety of students, teachers, and communities, including alternative modes of learning and assessment, among others. However, the pandemic’s ongoing effects on education has brought to the fore issues regarding education equity, quality, and efficiency. Indeed, while ASEAN Member States were quick to act and respond, collective action and effective policy coordination are still required to address the challenges faced by the sector. Ultimately, this report holds the potential of contributing to ASEAN’s current initiative on developing a comprehensive regional recovery framework and action plan. Building back better and strengthening resilience would necessitate more accessible, inclusive, and scaled-up social protection measures; more robust laws, policies and regulations on labour and employment to adapt to the new normal; and a strong focus on lifelong learning and future-ready education and skills development. Operationally, the report also contributes to the programming work of the ASEAN Senior Labour Officials Meeting (SLOM), Senior Officials Meeting on Education (SOM-ED), and Senior Officials Meeting on Social Welfare and Development (SOMSWD), particularly in the development of their