EMBU COUNTY (MBEERE) 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A Joint Report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)1 and Embu (Mbeere) County Steering Group (CSG) February 2021 1 Joseph Kamau Swala (Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries) and Hellen Avisa (State Department of Education) I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The short rains food and nutritional security assessment is a bi-annual assessment conducted by multi-agency and multi-sector representatives from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG); the County Steering Group (CSG) drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, health and nutrition as well as education as key sectors and various non-state actors. The assessment was aimed at achieving an objective, evidence-based, transparent food and nutritional security situational analysis in Mbeere sub-counties following the performance of short rains season in 2020 and taking into account the cumulative effects of previous seasons, to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The assessment covered the two main livelihood zones. The main food security threats were below average short rains performance, high food prices, livestock diseases and COVID 19 pandemic safety measures and restrictions. The performance of short rains was below average with the region receiving 51- 90 percent of the normal which were 43 percent of the average rainfall of 256.05 mm by uneven distribution in space and poor distribution in time. Production of maize, beans and green grams is expected to decline by 28, 47 and 42 percent respectively compared to the long term averages. The production of tomatoes and watermelons under irrigation increased by 25 and 50 percent respectively compared to the long term averages. Maize stocks held by farmers were 19 percent below the long term average. Stocks of maize held by traders were 27 percent below the long term average as traders disposed of their previous old stock. Milk production was near normal across all livelihood zones. In the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones, consumption of milk was one and 2.5 litres respectively. All markets functioned normally without any disruptions. The average maize prices in January 2021 was Ksh. 35 per kilogram, which was stable compared to the long term average of Ksh.36for the same period. The average price of a goat was Ksh. 5,545 for a medium-size goat. The terms of trade was 158 kilograms of maize from the sale of a medium-size goat compared to the long term average of 127 kilograms. The distance for domestic water in Mixed Farming livelihood ranged between 1-3 kilometers, which was within the normal of 0.5-3 kilometers. While in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the distance to domestic water ranged between 2-8 kilometers compared to the normal of less than five kilometers. In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the cost of water was Ksh. 2-5 per 20-litre Jerrycan, which was normal for the time of the year while in the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the cost of water was Ksh. 5-10 per 20-litre Jerrycan, which was also normal for the time of the year. Water consumption in the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones declined by 17 and 33 percent respectively compared to the normal. In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, consumption of water declined from 60 litres per person per day to 50 litres per person per day. In the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone, water consumption declined from 30 litres per person per day to 20 litres per person per day. The proportions of households with borderline and acceptable food consumption score was 20 and 80 percent respectively. In the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, households with acceptable food consumption remained above 90 percent in the January 2021 and same period in 2020. The proportion of households in the Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone with borderline food consumption score in January 2020 slightly increased from 35 percent to 37 percent in same period in 2021. In January 2021, the coping strategy index in the mixed farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones was 1.8 and 5.7 respectively. The proportion of children under-fives with Mid Upper Arm Circumference with colour categories measurement was normal (green) across the livelihood zones. The crude mortality and mortality are below the normal threshold. Mbeere Sub Counties was classified as ‘Stressed’ (IPC Phase ). II Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 County Background ............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Methodology and Approach ............................................................................................................... 1 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ............................................................ 2 2.1 Rainfall Performance ........................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 COVID 19 Pandemic ............................................................................................................................ 2 2.3 Other Shocks and Hazards .................................................................................................................. 3 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ................................................................. 3 3.1 Availability ........................................................................................................................................... 3 3.1.1 Crop Production ........................................................................................................................... 3 3.1.2 Cereals Stocks .............................................................................................................................. 4 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.4 Impact on availability ................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Access .................................................................................................................................................. 7 3.2.1 Markets ........................................................................................................................................ 8 3.2.2 Terms of Trade (ToT) .................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.3 Income Sources ............................................................................................................................ 9 3.2.4 Water Access and Availability .................................................................................................... 10 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.6 Coping Strategy .......................................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Utilization .......................................................................................................................................... 13 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns .............................................................................................. 14 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation......................................................................... 15 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity .................................................................................... 15 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition Sector in COVID -19 Pandemic ................................................................. 16 3.3.5 Public Interventions, Risk Communication and Community Level Actions ............................... 17 3.3.6 Coordination and Leadership in COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness and Response ................. 17 3.4 Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ............................................................................................ 18 3.5 Education .......................................................................................................................................... 19 3.5.1 Enrolment .................................................................................................................................. 19 III 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Schools ................................................................................. 19 3.5.3 Effects of Short Rains on Schools ............................................................................................... 20 3.5.4 School Feeding ........................................................................................................................... 21 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ................................................................................................................ 22 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions ....................................................................................................................