Volume 3 | Issue 2 | Article ID 2132 | Feb 15, 2005 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus Pyongyang Waiting for the Spring Gavan McCormack Pyongyang Waiting for the Spring To many, it seemed that a new round of talks expected early in 2005 might actually achieve a by Gavan McCormack breakthrough; some even thought the long- awaited Pyongyang Spring might be imminent. Then, came the North Korean Foreign With the lunar New Year, in Northeast Asia the Ministry's February 10th announcement that darkness of winter recedes, a pale sun gains the country was indeed a nuclear-weapons strength, daylight hours lengthen and the earth state, that such weapons were necessary stirs. However, in one of the bleakest and because of the American government's "ever- coldest corners of the region, North Korea, the more undisguised policy to isolate and stifle" it, land is still hard-frozen, spring is far off, and and that there was no point in resuming the political frosts have not melted for more than talks so long as this hostility continued. Only half a century. Yet all extremes are eventually "powerful strength," it said, "can protect justice exhausted and yield, as yang to yin, and even and truth." for North Korea that time may not be far off. Heading into a Korean Winter Relations between the United States and North Korea, having edged right up to the brink of As George W. Bush began his second term, his administration reviewed its intelligence and reconciliation and normalization in the last policy on North Korea. On the face of it, the days of Bill Clinton's presidency, went into outcome seemed, at the very least, milder than crisis with the advent of the Bush the uncompromising hostility of his first year or administration and have remained in a kind of so in office. This is perhaps hardly surprising, eternal, roiling crisis ever since. After North given that the ongoing war in Iraq has strained Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non- American military power to something like its Proliferation Treaty in January 2003, there limits and, for at least the last two years, were four sessions of talks aimed at break the Middle Eastern policy has simply absorbed all impasse between the two countries: a three- available Bush administration attention, in sided meeting (the US, North Korea, and effect trumping the more muscular approach to China) in Beijing in April 2003, and three various problems in Asia that America’s subsequent "Six-Sided" meetings (that added neocons had long dreamed of. South Korea, Russia, and Japan) in August 2003, February 2004, and June 2004. All Nonetheless, the overall effect of the Korean parties agree that the nuclear and other policy review was not so much to resolve the problems can be, and must be, resolved dilemmas on the peninsula, but to put forward through discussion; while North Koreana stance of studied ambiguity, of what might be officials claim that their country has no wish to called hostility-plus -- that is, plus readiness for possess nuclear weapons and is ready to give some kind of deal. Late in 2004, U.S. them up as long as its legitimate security government sources released accounts of what concerns are met. it called a "bold approach" toward settlement, 1 3 | 2 | 0 APJ | JF which had apparently first been placed on the But he too stressed the ongoing US mission to table in Pyongyang in October 2002 and was extend "democracy" to the benighted regions of still open. If the North Koreans would suspend the world: regimes would have to embrace and dismantle all their nuclear programs "freedom" either by changing themselves or by (military and civil) under appropriatebeing changed. Against all this, at least since international inspection, address proliferation the Beijing talks began Pyongyang's message, concerns about missile, biological and chemical often ridiculed as a stance of preposterous weapons, as well as conventional arms levels blackmail, had in fact remained constant: it and the lack of human rights in the country, the simply sought concrete assurance of survival. U.S. would, in return, "kick off negotiations" to convert the existing cease-fire agreement still Late in 2004, under pressure from its Asian in effect from the Korean War of the early allies, the Bush administration had evidently 1950s into an actual peace treaty, push for decided to shift from talking about the need for North Korean membership in international "regime change" in North Korea to "regime financial institutions, and provide energy transformation" -- a subtle distinction indeed. assistance and humanitarian aid. [1] As Jeong Se Hyun, former Unification Minister in South Korea, commented, "I don't This "bold offer" was quickly overshadowed by understand why the United States is beginning other disputed matters and died stillborn in to say that. If you go from telling someone else 2002. But it had itself been a study in'I'm going to kill you,' to 'If you become a good ambiguity - a mix of generous-soundingguy I might not kill you,' what will the other promises all of which depended on North guy think…" [2] Korea's initial and comprehensive surrender to American demands. It was an offer made in Whatever the words from Washington, the view order to rebut any future charges that the Bush from Pyongyang must have been grim. On administration had lacked interest inOctober 19, the North Korea Human Rights Act negotiating, and made on terms that it could be was signed into law, having been adopted by a certain the other side would never accept. unanimous vote of both Houses. It widened the Now, as 2005 began, it was evidently back on administration's playing field for multifarious the table, but so, it turned out, was the potential interventions short of all-out war, hostility. both along the North's borders and via the airwaves. It also supported an "East European" In her confirmation hearings to becomemodel of undermining and destabilizing the Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice struck an regime by non-military means. apparently upbeat note by declaring that the US had "no intention" of invading North Korea. Behind such actions lay the long-term lobbying At the same time, she explicitly included it of various American neoconservative among six "outposts of tyranny" that must be intellectuals with close ties to the dealt with and proclaimed that the US stood administration. And they now chimed in as with "the oppressed people" of all countries. well. The right-wing Hudson Institute's Michael For Pyongyang, "outpost of tyranny" must have Horowitz, one of the authors of the Human sounded no less menacing than "axis of evil." Rights Law, on December 23 stated his belief President Bush himself, in his 2005 State of the that North Korea would implode within the Union address, had little to say about North year. He also spoke of the possibility of finding Korea other than that the US was "working generals within the North Korean military closely with governments in Asia to convince prepared to work with the U.S. and using them North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions." to bring about a coup. "Defense Committee 2 3 | 2 | 0 APJ | JF Chairman Kim Jong Il," he added, "won't be weapon fuel. This program, however, was not able to enjoy the next Christmas." [3] He also controversial, in the sense that Pyongyang has mocked the South Korean government, which is repeatedly offered to sacrifice it as part of a absolutely opposed to such an approach, as comprehensive deal. The Bush administration, "hypercritical and irresponsible." [4] in dismissing any possibility of such a deal, has concentrated on an alleged North Korean In a similar vein, Nicholas Eberstadt of the “second track” weapons program, based on American Enterprise Institute, anotheruranium. This matter is highly controversial. prominent neo-conservative intellectual, wrote a November 2004 article entitled "Tear down The basis for this “second-track” charge was this Tyranny." Like Horowitz, he directed his the claimed confession of a Pyongyang official venom at both Korean governments, referring to Deputy Secretary of State James Kelly on a to "the pro-appeasement crowd in the South rare Bush administration official visit to Korean government" who had turned that Pyongyang in October 2002 that it had a secret country into a place "increasingly governed in uranium enrichment program. That confession, accordance with graduate-school 'peacein turn, was supposed to have prompted the studies' desiderata." [5] If the North Koreans U.S. to suspend its Agreed Framework needed another signal from the Bushcommitments (in particular the pledge of administration, the appointment of Georgetown 500,000 tons annually of heavy oil). Soon after, University academic Victor Cha as a Director North Korea withdrew from the Agreed for Asian Affairs at the National Security Framework and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Council was undoubtedly it. He had earned plaudits from neoconservatives for a 2002 No confirmation, however, has ever been article in the Council on Foreign Relations forthcoming for the US claim. North Korea journal Foreign Affairs, later developed into a denies any such “confession,” and South Korea, book, in which he argued for pressure to be China and Russia have all expressed skepticism brought to bear on Pyongyang by forming a about such a nuclear program despite dogged “coalition for punishment." The priority he Bush administration efforts over the last two- placed on "punishing" Kim Jong Il’s regime and-a-half years to persuade them of its suggested a view of "transformation" for North existence. Not only has Washington been Korea that was blood brother to those being unable to persuade allies and negotiating proposed by Horowitz and Eberstadt.