Mark Alexander Shalaby May 2011 THE THE LOCAL THE HOPE GLOBAL & THE HYPE Contents Key messages – Global Mobile Internet Consumers Providers • New devices: Proliferation of new • Voice revenues stagnating – connected devices – spurring ARPU levels dropping mobile Mobile Internet growth: • Data appetite – new revenue cameras, GPS, tablets, stream opportunity smartphones, etc. • Technological development – LTE • New uses: social networking, coverage & capacity commerce, etc. • Business model challenges – • Dropping entry costs – equipment value chain fragmentation & and dataplans consolidation • Better access - coverage "Mobile is going to be the next big internet phenomenon.” Eric Schmidt, CEO Google 2005 • + 5 Billion Mobile subscribers out of 6.9 billion people at the end of 2010 • Nearly 80% penetration • 0.5 Billion Mobile Internet users in 2010; increasing to 1 Billion 2011 • Mobile will overtake PCs • Usage will double in next 5 years A More Mobile World By the end of 2009… • 470 M daily circulation of all • 6 B total TV sets in use newspapers • 1.7 B total internet users incl • 825 M registered cars PC, mobile, web café • 950 M total cable/satellite TV • 1.8 B total unique holders of subscribers credit cards • 1.1 B total fixed landline • 2.2 B total unique holders of phones bank accounts • 1.2 B All types of PCs in use • 4.0 B total FM radios in use incl laptops, netbooks But 4.6B mobile phone subscriptions globally... Source: Tomi Ahonen A Look at M-Sports Around the World 2010 2010 - Mobile Dominates Globally • Mobile is “the” ubiquitous device • The Internet is becoming Mobile: Many Mobile Internet users are mobile-only, i.e. they do not, or very rarely use a desktop, laptop or tablet to access the Web. • In Egypt, already 70% of Mobile Internet users are mobile-only. Source: Tomi Ahonen The Insider’s Guide to Mobile 2010 Billions THE THE LOCAL THE HOPE GLOBAL & THE HYPE Contents 2010 Egyptian Telecom Indicators Source: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Company reports, Mobinil analysis Egypt ranks 21st globally in terms of Internet subs More Internet users than fixed line! 2nd largest number of Internet users in Africa after Nigeria Largest in MENA –but penetration still lags more developed nations – Egyptians love the Internet. – Adoption has been helped by “Free Internet initiative”: dial up Internet at cost of local call – Increasing availability of Internet services in work areas, libraries and Internet cafes – Falling PC costs – Increasing Smartphone penetration – Increasing Arabic & Local content Sources: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Business Monitor International (BMI) Broadband (DSL) - booming DSL is a very small – but rapidly growing market. – Introduced commercially in 2000 – spectacular growth rates – Adoption has been helped by government sponsored efforts to reduce subscriber costs – Arab Advisors 2008 survey found that 63.4% of Egyptian households share DSL connection with their neighbors – demonstrates extent of demand – Top 5 Internet Sites in Egypt (Alexa – 30th April) 1 Facebook 2 google.com.eg 3 YouTube - Broadcast yourself 4 Google 5 Yahoo! Sources: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT), Business Monitor International (BMI) http://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries;0/EG Internet Users by Mode of Access – December 2010 Internet Access thro Mobile or USB Source: Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology (MCIT) THE THE LOCAL THE HOPE GLOBAL & THE HYPE Contents The Broadband Opportunity In Egypt, as elsewhere in the world, there is a tremendous growth opportunity for Mobile Internet & Mobile Broadband – Voice reaching tipping point – both mobile & fixed operators suffering from drop in voice revenue and falling ARPUs – Continuing subscriber growth will not compensate for pricing pressures – Data opportunity to re-coup some of revenue shrinkage – but needs business model re-alignment, including increased efficiency, partnerships, etc. • Mobile voice continues to be largest • Mobile data services currently single contributor to total Egyptian contribute about 9% of total mobile telco revenue: service revenue – $4.2bn in 2010, representing + 50% – Pyramid forecasts this will increase of total telecom revenue. to 30% by 2015, stimulated by mobile • Data services, particularly Internet adoption. Broadband, have potential to support • Voice will still remain “bread & butter” future growth for operators of the business Source: Egypt: Political Instability Threatens Telecom Development, but Opportunities Remain, Pyramid Research February 2011 The Hope & the Hype: Potential & Obstacles • High adult illiteracy • Low income levels Mobile Internet and • Infrastructure limitations – fixed & mobile coverage and capacity, Broadband have especially outside of capital – huge potential – national digital divide but Egypt • Opaque pricing & 3G costs penetration still lags remain high for many behind other • Relatively High handset/ countries device costs • Lack of compelling local content Social Networks & Revolution 1/2 "People protested and brought down governments before Facebook was invented. They did it before the internet came along." --Malcolm Gladwell, February "This is the revolution of the youth of the internet, and now the revolution of all Egyptians." --Wael Ghonim, February 7 “The role of the internet in Egypt's revolution has definitely been overstated” --Micah L. Sifry, CNN February 11 Social Networks & Revolution 2/2 • Internet & social networks played role in the Egyptian revolution –supporting mobilization of already politicized groups & getting the message out to those already “on-line” • But social networking via Broadband was a tool – not the catalyst for revolt • But looking deeply see that of more importance: – Large % of youth as proportion of Egyptian population – Large urban population – Increasing social and income divisions Using Mobile Broadband for Health: Pilot project • Partnership between Qualcomm’s Wireless Reach initiative, Mobinil, Click Diagnostics and the Egyptian Ministry of Health, supported by the Ministry of Communication • Using Mobinil’s 3G HSPA Mobile Broadband network, physicians on location photograph patients’ skin conditions, write up symptoms in text and transmit the information to remote specialists to obtain or confirm diagnosis • Program pilot phase will be used to determine the potential success of a large-scale deployment across Egypt to provide specialist medical consultation for regions in need • 3G Mobile Broadband has the ability to dramatically improve the speed, efficiency and quality of health care, especially in developing countries where Example dermatology app for iPad: Logical medical resources may be limited. Images' VisualDX Source: http://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2011/04/21/qualcomm-and-mobinil- announce-pilot-program-using-3g-mobile-broadband-remot Thank You .