Off Ramps from CONFRONTATION in SOUTHERN ASIA EDITED BY Michael Krepon, Travis Wheeler and Liv Dowling Off Ramps from CONFRONTATION in SOUTHERN ASIA May 2019 © Copyright 2019 by the Stimson Center. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Visit www.stimson.org for more information about Stimson. 4 Off Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia Contents Preface................................................................ 7 Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................ 9 Introduction...........................................................11 Michael Krepon PART 1: EXPAND EXISTING CONFIDENCE -BUILDING MEASURES . 13 Launch an Expanded Missile Flight-Test Notification Regime ................14 Frank O’Donnell Modernize the South Asia Nuclear Facility “Non-Attack” Agreement ........ 24 Toby Dalton PART 2: SUBSCRIBE TO NUCLEAR RESTRAINT . 34 Back to Basics: Pledge Nuclear Restraint...................................35 Manpreet Sethi Pursue a Triangular MIRV Restraint Regime in Southern Asia ...............43 Sitakanta Mishra Consider a Trilateral Asian ABM Treaty.................................. 50 Happymon Jacob No Indian BMD for No Pakistani MIRVs..................................59 by Sadia Tasleem Enact a Restraint Regime on MIRV Flight-Testing in South Asia.............66 Zafar Khan PART 3: ACCOUNT FOR HUMANITARIAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES . 71 Establish a Joint India-Pakistan Initiative on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons ..........................72 Arka Biswas 5 Convene a Joint Commission on the Consequences of a Nuclear War in South Asia ............................ 77 Saira Bano Use Environmental Diplomacy to Resolve the Sir Creek Dispute..............85 Saleem H. Ali PART 4: ESTABLISH CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURES WITH CHINA . 93 Create a Channel for a U.S.-China Dialogue on South Asia ................. 94 Yun Sun Avoid Incidents at Sea between India and China...........................101 Monish Tourangbam Clarify and Respect the Line of Actual Control............................111 Travis Wheeler PART 5: INCREASE TRANSPARENCY . 126 Join the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty’s International Monitoring System...127 Sylvia Mishra and Sarah Bidgood Address South Asia’s Fissile Material Conundrum .........................135 Mansoor Ahmed Share Nuclear Information . .143 Hannah Haegeland PART 6: IMPROVE COMMUNICATION . 153 Break the Impasse: Direct Talks Between Army Chiefs .....................154 Feroz Hassan Khan Launch a Hotline Between National and Nuclear Command Authorities to Manage Tensions .........................................162 Harry I. Hannah About the Contributors ................................................170 6 Off Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia Preface I am pleased to present the Stimson Center South Asia Program’s latest book, O ff Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia. This volume builds on three decades of Stimson research and writing on the threat of conflict between India and Pakistan and between China and India. Within these 18 chapters, the authors offer novel ideas and confidence-building mechanisms for how regional stakeholders might reduce the risk of conflict. As some despair that international arms control regimes are in decline, Off Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia offers a welcome exercise in creative problem-solving that could help policymakers, analysts, and students engaged with the region’s geopolitics. In the winter of 2019 — almost exactly two decades after the 1999 Kargil war, when the two recently overt nuclear powers fought a war in the heights of the Himalayas — India and Pakistan were again embroiled in another major inter-state crisis. In response to a terrorist attack on an Indian security force convoy claimed by a Pakistan-based terrorist organization, India conducted airstrikes on Pakistan’s undisputed sovereign territory, precipitating Pakistani retaliation that resulted in an aerial dogfight not seen since the 1971 war. Persistent dissatisfaction over territorial disputes and terrorist proxies periodically ignite tensions. This much is familiar. But the next decade’s developments in military technology, doctrine, nationalist domestic politics, and rising power competition could further intensify strategic instability in southern Asia. The aftermath of the 2019 crisis warrants new introspection and offers an opportunity to consider new ideas. The essays in this volume diagnose some of the region’s challenges but also propose fresh, pragmatic approaches for risk management, conflict mitigation, and escalation control. Short of conflict resolution and border dispute settlements, incremental forms of information-sharing, communication enhancement, and mutual restraint can have salutary effects and advance U.S. interests in a stable balance of power in southern Asia. The work by the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program has played a critical role for policy audiences, particularly in Washington, Islamabad, New Delhi, and Beijing, owing to decades of thoughtful leadership by Stimson Co-Founder Michael Krepon. The program has provided a fountain of new ideas for confidence- building and nuclear risk-reduction, a convening forum for visiting scholars and practitioners to engage with and learn from their counterparts, and an analytical platform to sharpen the next generation of national security scholars and strategists focused on southern Asia. A testament to this is that many of the essays in this volume are contributed by this next-generation cohort. Our South Asia Program team is grateful to Jenny Moore for her editing assistance and to Lita Ledesma for her graphic design of the book. We also wish to 7 thank Heather Byrne and Gillian Gayner for their editorial help, as well as Katie Howard for her administrative assistance. As always, we are grateful to the institutions that continue to invest in our ambitious agenda. Our work would not be possible without the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and the National Nuclear Security Administration. The views and opinions expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the Stimson Center or of our funders. Sincerely, Sameer Lalwani Director, South Asia Program, Stimson Center 8 Off Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia Abbreviations and Acronyms A2/AD Anti-access/area-denial ABM Anti-ballistic missile ASAT Anti-satellite weapon ASW Anti-submarine warfare BMD Ballistic missile defense CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CBMs Confidence-building measures/mechanisms CD Conference on Disarmament CMD Credible minimum deterrence COLREGS International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty CTBTO Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization CUES Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea DGMO Directors general of military operations DRDO Defence Research and Development Organization FBRs Fast breeder reactors FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FMT Fissile Material Treaty HEU Highly enriched uranium HINW Humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons IAEA international Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental ballistic missile ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams IGMDP Integrated Guided Missile Development Program IMS International Monitoring System INCSEA Incidents at Sea Agreement INFCIRC/549 Information circular 549 IPFM International Panel on Fissile Materials ISR Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance KE Kinetic energy LAC Line of Actual Control LEMOA Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement LoC Line of Control 9 MDA Maritime domain awareness MEA Ministry of External Affairs MIRVs Multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles MOX Unirradiated mixed oxide MRVs Maneuverable re-entry vehicles MW Megawatts MWe Megawatts electric MWG Military Working Group NCA National Command Authority/Nuclear Command Authority NFU No first use NMD National missile defense NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NRRC Nuclear risk reduction center NRRMs Nuclear risk-reduction measures NSAs National security advisors NSAB National Security Advisory Board NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NSSs Nuclear Security Summits PHWRs Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAN People’s Liberation Army Navy Pu Plutonium S&ED Strategic and Economic Dialogue SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SALT Stimulate, appreciate, listen/learn, transfer SLBM Submarine-launched ballistic missile SLCM Submarine-launched nuclear cruise missile SOPs Standard operating procedures SRR Strategic restraint regime SSBN Submersible ship ballistic missile, nuclear powered START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty TMD Theater missile defense UNGA Committee of the United Nations General Assembly 10 Off Ramps from Confrontation in Southern Asia Introduction Michael Krepon In 2017, the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program launched a new initiative. We called it the Off Ramps Project. The nuclear competition among China, India, and Pakistan was accelerating with the introduction of new ballistic and cruise missiles. China had begun to place multiple warheads on some of its ballistic missiles, Pakistan advertised its ability to do so, and India demonstrated this capacity in its space program by placing into orbit many satellites from a single space launch vehicle. China and India made down payments on deploying limited anti-ballistic missile defense programs. All three countries