The Capitol Update SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2012 CLIENT ALERT: ELECTION 2012 Election season is upon us. On November 6th which will hinge on results in the voters will head to the polls to cast their ballots battleground states of Ohio, Florida, for the Office of President, U.S. Senate, House Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, of Representatives, State Senator and State Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire. Representative. In the weeks leading up to As of this writing in late September, election day you can expect to be inundated with An update on Connecticut President Obama has 247 electoral State Government mail, television ads and phone calls describing votes in his pocket with Mr. Romney and Politics from The the virtues of one candidate and the failings of Government Affairs Group at 191. Ohio and Florida are “must win” of Murtha Cullina LLP. the opponent. states for Romney. No Republican has Elizabeth M. Gemski Here is a look at races of importance to ever been elected President without Michael J. Martone Connecticut. winning Ohio. It’s also hard to conceive David J. McQuade President of a scenario which has Romney losing Janemarie W. Murphy Florida and winning the election. Should Connecticut remains a solid blue state. The Romney win both Ohio and Florida, he last republican presidential candidate to carry Visit our website at: Connecticut was George Bush Toss Ups Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan www.govtaffairsgroup.com Sr. in 1988. In 2008, then Senator 247 100 191 142 37 68 100 57 58 76 Barack Obama defeated Senator 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win (Recent Race Changes) John McCain by a whopping WA VT NH 12 Murtha Cullina LLP 3 4 ME MT ND 23 percentage points. This 3 4 CityPlace I 3 MN OR 10 185 Asylum Street year’s race appears to be much 7 ID NY SD WI 4 29 Hartford, CT 06103 WY 3 10 MI MA 11 closer. Recent polls conducted 3 16 PA IA NV NE 20 6 OH RI 6 5 IL IN by the Rassmussen Group and UT 18 4 CO 20 11 WV 6 VA CA 9 5 the Quinnipiac Polling Institute KS MO KY 13 CT 55 6 8 7 10 NC TN show President Obama with an 15 NJ AZ OK 11 NM AR SC 14 11 5 7 9 6 AL GA In Boston: 8 point lead over Republican MS 9 16 DE 6 3 617.457.4000 LA candidate Mitt Romney. This TX 8 In Hartford: 38 MD 860.240.6000 race will no doubt be closer than AK FL 10 3 29 In Madison: DC 2008, but look for the President 3 203.245.9991 In New Haven: to pick up Connecticut’s seven HI 4 203.772.7700 electoral votes. In Stamford: OBAMA/BIDEN ROMNEY/RYAN 203.653.5400 Solid Likely Solid Likely In Woburn: Nationwide, political pundits Leans Toss up Leans Toss up 781.933.5505 see this as a very tight race Map Produced by Real Clear Politics, 9-20-12 www.murthalaw.com Copyright © 2012 Murtha Cullina LLP. would still need 32 electoral votes from the states District 2 – Eastern Connecticut will once again return mentioned above to claim the presidency. Should Congressman Joe Courtney (D) to Washington for his the President win the 18 electoral votes in Ohio or fourth term. This very popular, former state legislator the 29 electoral votes in Florida he would be well on is running against Paul Formica who has served as the his way to reelection. Polling in these battleground First Selectman of East Lyme since 2007. states has been volatile giving the impression that District 3 – Look for long serving Congresswoman Rosa they are toss-ups. DeLauro to continue to represent the Greater New U.S. Senate Haven area. This is another Democratic stronghold where Republican Wayne Winsley will struggle to get Get ready for a barn burner here. Linda McMahon, who lost his message out. the 2010 senate race to Richard Blumenthal by a twelve point margin, is once again the Republican candidate District 4 – Congressman Jim Himes (D), who defeated having defeated former Congressman Christopher Shays long standing incumbent Christopher Shays four years in the Republican primary in August. She has worked hard ago, is the clear favorite to win this Fairfield County to redefine herself to appeal to women and independent seat. He is being challenged by Stephen Obsitnik, a voters, two groups where she badly under-performed two Naval Academy graduate and former Naval officer. years ago. To date she has spent $14M and appears to be District 5 – The 5th Congressional District, which on track to spend whatever is necessary to get her message stretches from the Farmington Valley down through out. New Britain and Waterbury and west to Danbury Congressman Chris Murphy, who easily outlasted former and the Northwest Hills will feature one of the most Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the Democratic contested races in the northeast. primary, will attempt to take his 5th Congressional District Chris Donovan, the current Speaker of the House, was popularity statewide. Murphy is a young, aggressive, the odds on favorite to win the Democratic primary thoughtful candidate. He is a relentless campaigner and and move on to November. However, his campaign fundraiser who should carry the Democratic mantle well. was derailed by an FBI sting which resulted in the However, his campaign has become mired in reports of his arrests of two high level campaign operatives and six failure to attend subcommittee meetings on financial issues others in a scheme to trade campaign contributions during the financial crisis and missed rental and mortgage for the Speaker’s commitment to defeat a bill aimed at payments. Mrs. McMahon has used her significant financial taxing “Roll Your Own” smoke shops. Although there advantage to attempt to define Murphy before he has was no evidence that Donovan knew of the plot, the the ability to define himself. Congressman Murphy has cloud surrounding his campaign was enough to deal countered that Linda McMahon is a wealthy woman looking his candidacy a death blow. to buy this election with little regard for the middle class. Recent polls show McMahon and Murphy in a dead heat. Elizabeth Esty, the Democratic nominee and wife of Washington pundits have moved this from “lean Democrat” Department of Energy and Environmental Protection to “toss up.” Expect this one to go down to the wire with Commissioner Dan Esty, is a very bright, articulate voter turnout the deciding factor. candidate with a nationwide network of supporters including EMILY’s list, a group that raises money U.S. House of Representatives for pro-choice, female candidates. Mrs. Esty ran a Most state residents will see very one-sided races for very focused primary campaign and now has the Congress. Expect Democrat incumbents to win easily in opportunity to take her message of moderate policies districts 1-4. and reaching across the aisle to get things done to voters in the most conservative district in the state. District 1 – John Larson will be returned to serve his eighth term in Congress. He is being challenged by Republican The Republican candidate, Andrew Roraback, a nine- John Decker who will struggle to compete for funding and term state senator from northwest Connecticut, name ID in this heavily Democratic district. survived a bruising four-way primary and now sets his sights on November. While very popular in the northwest, Senator Roraback will have to garner support defeated incumbent Ed Gomes and former Senator in the Farmington Valley and the greater Waterbury and Ernie Newton in a hard fought democrat primary. Danbury areas in order to be successful. He has retooled Expect him to easily defeat Republican Caz Mizera his staff and will need to rely on grassroots support in a in this heavily democratic district. campaign where he will likely be outspent by Mrs. Esty. The 30th Senatorial District is currently held Mitt Romney and Linda McMahon will run better here by Andrew Roraback. Long serving State than anywhere else in the state which can only help the Representative Clark Chapin of New Milford will Roraback campaign. seek to keep this seat in the Republican column. He Look for a very interesting campaign waged by two very is opposed by Attorney William Riiska, a Lakeville capable candidates both of whom have the ability to resident who has been politically active for many appeal to moderates in both parties. years. Riiska faces an uphill battle for a seat held by Republicans for many years. State Senate The current makeup of the State Senate is 22 Two long-term Democrat senators, Eileen Daily and Edith Democrats and 14 Republicans. The results in districts Prague announced their retirements in May. This turned 13, 19 and 33 will shape the makeup of the Senate for two safe Democratic seats into competitive open seats. the next two years. The 19th Senatorial District is comprised of ten towns in southeast Connecticut. It has been represented by Edith State House of Representatives Prague since 1994. Senator Prague was known as a tireless Twenty-six open seats and redistricting make this a advocate for the elderly and organized labor. Her retirement great opportunity for Republicans to pick up seats or leaves a vacancy that Republican Chris Coutu and Democrat for Democrats to increase their 99 – 52 majority. While Cathy Osten will compete to fill. Representative Coutu has many of the open seats are in districts dominated by earned a reputation as a tireless campaigner. Ms Osten, one party, there are some races that are up for grabs.