Photo by Alan D. Coogan Improving Access to Family Planning Can Promote Food Security in a Changing Climate Study Summary: Modeling Climate Change, Food Security, and Population Growth March 2012 FS-12-71 A growing body of evidence indicates that climate demonstrate that the lower fertility rates that would change is decreasing the productivity of many crops result from greater use of family planning can help around the world, thus exacerbating existing food to promote food security in two important ways: by security challenges. Ensuring sufficient food for a slowing population growth, thereby easing demand growing world population in the context of climate on strained agricultural systems; and by altering change will require innovative technologies and population composition in ways that can enable strategies to boost agricultural yields and improve improved nutritional outcomes among children access to nutritious foods for the world’s poorest under five—a group that is highly vulnerable to food people. New research demonstrates that slower insecurity. The study, which focused on climate population growth, achievable by addressing change impacts, food security challenges, and women’s existing needs for family planning, can population growth in Ethiopia, suggests that meeting also play a significant role in promoting future food women’s existing needs for family planning should security in a climate-altered world. be considered in broader strategies for adapting to the impacts of climate change on agriculture. In a ground-breaking new study, researchers at the Futures Group1 combined three models to Evaluation PRH Introduction Methodology Rising global temperatures and shifting precipitation As can be seen in Figure 2, the researchers combined three patterns are among the effects of climate change that models: 1) a demographic model to project population have already been observed as a result of increased growth,4 2) a food requirements model to project calorie concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.2 requirements necessary to maintain the health of the These changes are expected to reduce agricultural population,5 and 3) an economic model to project food productivity in many countries where high proportions consumption based on a number of factors, including the of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture, thus effects of climate change on agricultural yields.6 increasing the risk of food shortages. It is estimated, for example, that due to climate change, maize yields in Figure 2: Climate Change, Food Security, Africa may be 22 percent to 35 percent lower by 2030 and Population Model than would otherwise occur (see Figure 1).3 Figure 1: Climate change threatens Demographic model agricultural yields globally (low and medium fertility scenario) The predicted impact of climate change on maize productivity to 2030 Population by age and sex South & SE Africa W Africa C Africa E Africa C America Andean Food Economic requirements -5 model model -10 Per capita kcal Per capita food -15 requirements consumption based on age and with and without -20 sex of population climate change -25 Food security gap Child malnutrition -30 scenario without climate change -35 In carrying out this analysis, researchers examined how -40 different population growth scenarios would interact Percentage changes in maize productivity relative to a Source: Oxfam, Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a with future food requirements and food consumption in Resource-Constrained World, 2011 Ethiopia given the projected impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Two scenarios of population At the most basic level, ensuring food security requires growth: a “medium fertility” scenario in which fertility securing sufficient food for a given population. There in Ethiopia declines slowly, from an average of 4.8 are many factors that affect food security, including food children per woman today to 2.3 children per woman prices, trade, aid, poverty, distribution and access, and the in 2050; and a “low fertility” scenario, in which fertility nutritional content of food. The model constructed for declines to 1.8. Such fertility declines are feasible, given this study, which can be applied to any country, examined that currently, 25 percent of married women in Ethiopia how climate change is likely to affect food supply in a report that they either want no more children or want given country over time, and how different population to wait two years before having another child, but are 7 projections will affect the total and per capita calorie not using contraception. The fertility declines of both requirements of a country’s population. Using this model scenarios would require expanded access to and use of to better understand these foundational aspects of future family planning services throughout Ethiopia. food supply and demand can help to inform effective, holistic strategies to improve food security. 2 Key Findings Each of the above scenarios incorporates the “medium Using FAO methodology for estimating human energy fertility” population growth scenario that assumes requirements, researchers estimate that the average daily continued modest declines in fertility. However, when per capita calorie requirement needed to maintain the the “low fertility” population growth assumption is used, health of the population in Ethiopia is approximately the caloric shortfall shifts significantly. In a scenario in 2,200. Currently, 60 percent of the population consumes which climate change affects agriculture, a low fertility fewer calories than this daily physiological requirement;8 population growth assumption reduces the average per the average daily per capita calorie consumption is about capita shortfall in Ethiopia in 2050 from more than 500 1,980—a shortfall of about 220 calories per day, on calories per day to 127 calories per day (see Figure 4). average. This reduced shortfall is equivalent to the shortfall in the medium fertility scenario without climate change, In projecting how food production and consumption meaning that a low fertility scenario has the potential to may change in the future, researchers used a model that fully compensate for the impacts of climate change on incorporates Ethiopian and international economic data food consumption. about the production and trade of foodstuffs and other commodities, as well as their prices. In a scenario in Figure 4: Lower fertility would help to reduce which there is assumed to be no climate change and so no per capita calorie shortfall in Ethiopia effect on agricultural yields, the average per capita calorie consumption in Ethiopia would increase slightly by 2050 2,500 due to projected development gains, though still fall short 127 kcal per of estimated food requirements. person per 2,000 day shortfall However, in a scenario that accounts for climate change in 2050 and its impacts on the agriculture sector, average per Food requirements capita calorie consumption would decrease dramatically, 1,500 resulting in an average shortfall of more than 500 calories Food consumption with climate change Figure 3 per day by 2050 (see ). low fertility scenario 1,000 Figure 3: Climate change will affect food consumption in Ethiopia Daily Kilocalories per Person Daily 500 2,500 506 kcal per 0 person per 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2,000 day shortfall in 2050 Source: Authors’ calculations Food requirements 1,500 In addition to reducing fertility to levels consistent with Food consumption the low fertility population growth scenario, addressing without climate change 1,000 existing needs for family planning in Ethiopia would also Food consumption have numerous benefits for the health and well-being of with climate change women, children, and families. Because of these benefits, Daily Kilocalories per Person Daily 500 expanding access to and use of family planning is already a component of Ethiopia’s development strategy.9 0 The fertility declines of the low fertility population growth 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 scenario would also result in changes in population Source: Authors’ calculations composition. Lower fertility will result in fewer children under five years of age. In many countries, this age group is particularly vulnerable to malnutrition and food insecurity: in Ethiopia, for example, almost 30 percent of children under 5 are underweight.10 3 It is anticipated that overall development advances Ethiopia—a country with high fertility, high unmet need will result in fewer malnourished children by 2050, for family planning, and vulnerability to food insecurity but climate change is expected to confound progress due to climate change—investing in meeting women’s in reducing childhood malnutrition. In a low fertility needs for family planning would reduce fertility in ways that population growth scenario, the number of malnourished can significantly improve prospects for future food security. children would be dramatically lower by 2050, due to a smaller overall cohort of children under five and greater The conditions facing Ethiopia are shared by many per capita food consumption (see Figure 5). countries throughout the developing world. This analysis suggests that family planning interventions should be Figure 5: Lowering fertility can reduce child incorporated into national and international strategies malnutrition and plans for climate change adaptation and food security. Decision-makers, planners, and funders concerned with Number of malnourished children in 2050 climate change adaptation and food