Concepts of Terrorism Analysis of the rise, decline, trends and risk December, 2008 Deliverable 5, Workpackage 3 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................................ 4 PART A. .................................................................................................................................. 5 1. TERRORISM RISE AND FALL: ROOT AND TRIGGER CAUSES AND CAUSES FOR DECLINE ............................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Scholarly Research Overview....................................................................................................... 6 General Qualitative Analyses of Causes of Terrorism ............................................................ 7 Psychological Research on Causes of Terrorism....................................................................... 9 Empirical Analyses of Causes of Terrorism............................................................................... 10 1.2 Theoretical Framework................................................................................................................. 11 Approaches to Terrorism Analysis................................................................................................ 13 1.3 List of Root and Trigger Causes of Terrorism ...................................................................... 15 Root Causes.......................................................................................................................................... 15 Trigger Causes..................................................................................................................................... 18 1.4 Most Relevant Root and Trigger Causes................................................................................ 19 1.5 Concluding Remarks...................................................................................................................... 19 2. DECLINE IN TERRORISM: LESSONS FROM THE PAST.................................. 21 2.1 Comparative Literature on Decline and Demise ................................................................. 22 Qualitative Explanations of Decline or Demise of Terrorism.............................................. 22 2.2 Empirical Studies of the Decline and Demise of terrorism ............................................. 28 North America...................................................................................................................................... 28 The Middle East................................................................................................................................... 30 Central and South America............................................................................................................. 33 Europe..................................................................................................................................................... 35 2.3 Challenges in Drawing on Lessons from the Past .............................................................. 40 Defining Decline .................................................................................................................................. 40 Bringing About Decline..................................................................................................................... 42 Differences Between Countries ..................................................................................................... 43 Countering Terrorism........................................................................................................................ 43 2.4 List with most often mentioned factors in decline and demise..................................... 45 Factors of decline for terrorist organizations: ......................................................................... 45 Possible government measures to influence decline of terrorism ................................... 46 2.5 Concluding Remarks...................................................................................................................... 47 3. Linking Root and Trigger Causes and Causes for Decline......................... 49 PART B. ................................................................................................................................55 1. Trends in Terrorism ......................................................................................................... 55 1.1 Demarcations ................................................................................................................................... 55 1.2 Trend analysis.................................................................................................................................. 57 1.3 Four Waves of Modern Terrorism ............................................................................................. 58 Additions/Enhancements of Theory............................................................................................. 62 Adjusted Waves .................................................................................................................................. 62 Primary System-Contextual Factors Undergirding Terrorism Evolution........................ 64 Wave Dynamics................................................................................................................................... 66 1.4 Data Analysis.................................................................................................................................... 67 1.5 The Fourth Wave ............................................................................................................................ 70 Characteristics of the Fourth Wave ............................................................................................. 72 Fourth Wave Dynamics .................................................................................................................... 74 Two Types of Religious Terrorism ................................................................................................ 77 2. The Risk Terrorism Poses............................................................................................. 79 2 2.1 Quantifying the Risk of Terrorism ............................................................................................ 80 Indicators of Terrorist Groups’ Intentions................................................................................. 82 Indicators of Terrorist Groups’ Capabilities .............................................................................. 83 2.2 Consequences of Terrorism ........................................................................................................ 84 2.3 Capabilities of Terrorist Organizations ................................................................................... 92 2.4 Intentions of Terrorists................................................................................................................. 97 3. Risk and Trends: Where To Go From Here?..................................................... 100 PART C. .............................................................................................................................. 107 1. CASE STUDIES................................................................................................................... 107 1.1 Ethno-nationalist and separatist terrorist groups ............................................................ 107 IRA ......................................................................................................................................................... 108 1.2 Left-wing terrorist groups ......................................................................................................... 126 RAF......................................................................................................................................................... 126 Red Brigades ...................................................................................................................................... 135 1.3 Right-wing terrorist groups....................................................................................................... 143 Fact sheets.......................................................................................................................................... 143 History .................................................................................................................................................. 145 Databases............................................................................................................................................ 148 1.4 Religious groups............................................................................................................................ 153 Hizb ut-Tahrir al Islami .................................................................................................................. 154 The Hofstadgroep ............................................................................................................................. 159 Part D.................................................................................................................................. 164 1. General Bibliography....................................................................................................