Africa Programme Meeting Summary Delivering Sustainable Growth in Africa: The Role for International Financial Centres Speakers: Geoff Cook Chief Executive Officer, Jersey Finance Speaker: Mark Pragnell Head of Commissioned Projects, Capital Economics Discussant: Dr Iwa Salami Senior Lecturer, School of Business and Law, University of East London Discussant: Olu Okubanjo Managing Director, Obsidian Occident Chair: Alex Vines Director, Area Studies and International Law; Head, Africa Programme, Chatham House 12 November 2014 The views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the speaker(s) and participants do not necessarily reflect the view of Chatham House, its staff, associates or Council. Chatham House is independent and owes no allegiance to any government or to any political body. It does not take institutional positions on policy issues. This document is issued on the understanding that if any extract is used, the author(s)/ speaker(s) and Chatham House should be credited, preferably with the date of the publication or details of the event. Where this document refers to or reports statements made by speakers at an event every effort has been made to provide a fair representation of their views and opinions. The published text of speeches and presentations may differ from delivery. 10 St James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LE T +44 (0)20 7957 5700 F +44 (0)20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Patron: Her Majesty The Queen Chairman: Stuart Popham QC Director: Dr Robin Niblett Charity Registration Number: 208223 2 Delivering Sustainable Growth in Africa: The Role of International Finance Centres Introduction International financial centres (IFCs) play a key role in encouraging foreign direct investment and sustainable economic development across the African continent. These services can help fill the investment gap in the African market by offering a more attractive opportunity to international investors. This event launched the Capital Economics report Jersey’s Value to Africa, which examines the scope for Africa to grow economically and addresses the issues of corruption and illicit activity in the developing world, which IFCs are often accused of perpetrating. The panel assessed the role of international financial centres such as Jersey in sustainable development and the extent to which these centres can be a catalyst for economic growth in Africa. Geoff Cook Cook opened the meeting with an outline of Jersey Finance’s objectives and its reasons for compiling the report. Jersey Finance is a public-private partnership between the financial services industry and the government of Jersey, set up to promote the island as an international financial centre. Jersey manages around £1.2 trillion in assets belonging to partners in 195 countries. Cook said that it attracts capital due to its political and fiscal stability, respect for the rule of law, independent judiciary, simple tax system, commitment to international standards including the fight against tax evasion and criminal activity, and excellent transport and communication networks. In 2013, Jersey Finance commissioned a study to quantify the economic and fiscal benefit of Jersey’s relationship with the UK. Cook said the study suggested that Jersey supports 185,000 British jobs, provides five per cent of Britain’s FDI stocks, makes a £9 billion contribution to the UK’s GDP and generates around £2.3 billion in tax contributions to the UK exchequer. He stated that a separate report found that allegations related to illicit capital flows from Jersey were ill-founded. They are also undermined by Jersey’s high compliance ratings from supervisory bodies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Financial Action Tax Force (FATF). Cook said that Jersey Finance identified Africa as a high growth, high potential market in its 2020 IFC Roadmap. Jersey’s overseas aid commission is committed to giving 0.7 per cent of GDP in aid and Africa is a major recipient and partner in that work already. He said that Capital Economics were asked to compile the report to evaluate Jersey’s current business footprint in Africa and the continent’s growth potential. In addition to this, Jersey’s Value to Africa analyses whether the focus on tax and illicit capital flows affects development of policy objectives and what Africa’s sources of investment capital are. Looking forward, it evaluates how Jersey can help Africa realize its potential and how the global community can ensure that Africans achieve an enduring benefit from international investment. Mark Pragnell Pragnell began his analysis of the report by noting that Africa is likely to remain the world’s poorest continent for some time. It currently accounts for 15 per cent of the global population but only four per cent of its economic output. This output is highly concentrated, with five countries accounting for almost two thirds of Africa’s total GDP. In spite of this, Pragnell stated that there are reasons for optimism. Annual growth has stayed fairly constant at five per cent per annum for the last decade, while there has been improved political stability and better governance overall. Pragnell said that the continent has a huge amount of potential yet to be realized. 3 Delivering Sustainable Growth in Africa: The Role of International Finance Centres Africa contains eight per cent of the world’s extractable oil and gas, 15 per cent of its gold, 40 per cent of its industrial diamonds and almost all of its platinum group metal reserves. Pragnell said that Africa’s wealth potential will be augmented in the coming decades by the demographic dividend. By 2040, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Tanzania and Uganda will join Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt among the top 20 countries in terms of population globally. This growth is projected to increase the working age population by 640 million people by 2040, and directly impact upon Africa’s productive capacity. Pragnell said that this will be the biggest working age population increase of any continent; and is especially favourable compared with Europe, which will see a decline of around 70 million. He warned that an increase of this magnitude can be a double-edged sword. If a country is unable to provide enough employment for its working-age citizens it will lead to a further drain and impact on public services and welfare. However, Africa has a unique chance to capitalize on its demographics. The report found that a continued five per cent growth per year until 2040 represents a cautious estimate for the future. Pragnell said that this growth would result in a fourfold increase in GDP from its current level, from $2.3 trillion to $8.7 trillion. He said that such growth rates would have a huge effect on the lives of Africans, although Africa would still be left with rates of GDP per capita on average only 14 per cent that of the United States today. Growth will not be spread evenly throughout the continent. The report predicts that Niger, Uganda and Mali will have higher than average growth rates, largely because this growth has started from a relatively low base. Niger will benefit from some of the strongest demographic growth in Africa, while Uganda has begun to see the benefits of more stable administrative arrangements and solid fiscal policies. Pragnell said that according to the World Bank, Africa accounts for 20 of the bottom 25 countries for ease of doing business, seven out of the bottom 10 for rule of law, and 23 of the bottom 40 for firms’ ability to access credit. There is therefore much policy work to be done to deliver on its potential for growth. Recent threats of ebola and Islamist fundamentalism have made implementing these changes harder. Pragnell argued that it is essential for African countries to gain investment in the basic physical assets required to deliver economic activity and growth, such as roads and power networks. Africa currently has the least capital of any continent other than Oceania, with two per cent of the global total. Its level of capital assets is just 15 per cent of the global average. In order for the fourfold increase in GDP to materialize, it must be matched by a six fold increase in capital stock across the continent. That would add up to a cumulative investment of $85 trillion, equivalent to roughly one year’s global GDP today. Pragnell said that 37 per cent of Africa’s GDP must be spent on investment projects each until 2040 to deliver this. Rates of investment presently stand at 24 per cent of GDP, and if this proportion continued to 2040 there would be an investment gap of $11.5 trillion. Pragnell said that some of the investment to fill this gap will come from aid, domestic economy activity and local governments. However, he said that due to the scale of investment needed, the majority of funding must come from foreign investment. International trade now accounts for 32 per cent of global GDP compared to 20 per cent 30 years ago. There is also greater mobility of labour and enterprise. The percentage of people living in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states who were born outside their country of residence has risen from 7.5 to 12 per cent in a decade. Pragnell said that in emerging markets there is a newly affluent, mobile and eager middle class who are willing to travel. In addition, multinational companies are creating a population of serial expatriates with postings around the world. IFCs are being created in a context of greater mobility in labour, capital and trade than ever before. Explaining the purpose of IFCs and their increasing prevalence, Pragnell said that IFCs provide a service to facilitate secure cross-border financial transactions.