1 Driving Automation Systems in Long-Haul Trucking and Bus Transit: Preliminary Analysis of Potential Workforce Impacts Report to Congress January 2021 2 List of Acronyms Acronym Meaning ADA Americans with Disabilities Act ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance Systems ADS Automated Driving System AFL-CIO American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations ALPA Air Line Pilots Association Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population ASEC CPS Survey ATA American Trucking Associations ATM automated teller machine ATRI American Transportation Research Institute ATU Amalgamated Transit Union BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS OES Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment Statistics CACC cooperative adaptive cruise control CCJ Commercial Carrier Journal CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CDL commercial driver's license CMV commercial motor vehicle DDT dynamic driving task DOC Department of Commerce DOL Department of Labor ELDT Entry-Level Driver Training FHWA Federal Highway Administration 3 FLSA Fair Labor Standards Act FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration FRA Federal Railroad Administration FTA Federal Transit Administration GAO Government Accountability Office GVW gross vehicle weight GVWR gross vehicle weight rating HAV highly automated vehicle HHS Department of Health and Human Services HMI human-machine interface HOS Hours of Service JES Joint Explanatory Statement LTL less-than-truckload MBTA Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NIOSH National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NTD National Transit Database NTTC National Tank Truck Carriers ODD operational design domain OEM original equipment manufacturer OES Occupational Employment Statistics OOIDA Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association 4 RFC Request for Comments SAE SAE International SARTRE Safe Road Trains for the Environment SOC Standard Occupational Classification STAR Strategic Transit Automation Research TAA Trade Adjustment Assistance TCAS traffic collision avoidance system TRACS Transit Advisory Committee for Safety TRB Transportation Research Board TRCP Transit Cooperative Research Program TTD Transportation Trades Department U.S. United States U.S. DOT United States Department of Transportation VAA Vehicle Assist and Automation VIUS Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey WARN Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification WIOA Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act 5 Table of Contents List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Legislative Direction ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 11 1.1. Report Scope ............................................................................................................................... 11 1.2. Historical and Economic Context ................................................................................................ 11 1.3. Driving Automation and Heavy Vehicle Research and Development Context ........................... 12 1.4. Methodology and Limitations ..................................................................................................... 14 1.5. Federal Roles ............................................................................................................................... 16 2. Workforce Impacts .............................................................................................................................. 17 2.1. Historical Perspective: Labor Market Impacts of New Technologies ......................................... 18 2.2. The Professional Driving Workforce ........................................................................................... 21 2.3. Workforce Impacts for Long-Haul Heavy Trucking ..................................................................... 23 2.4. Workforce Impacts for Transit Buses .......................................................................................... 47 2.5. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 63 3. Situation Awareness and Platooning .................................................................................................. 64 3.1. Situation Awareness and Driving Automation ............................................................................ 64 3.2. Visibility, Mobility, and Safety Issues Related to Truck Platooning ............................................ 65 4. Labor Force Training and Retraining Needs ........................................................................................ 67 4.1. Training Needs ............................................................................................................................ 67 4.2. Retraining Resources .................................................................................................................. 70 4.3. Apprenticeships .......................................................................................................................... 73 4.4. Effectiveness of Retraining Resources ........................................................................................ 74 4.5. Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 75 5. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 75 Appendix: Driving Automation Research, Development, and Commercialization Activity in the Commercial Motor Vehicle and Transit Bus Industries .............................................................................. 77 Automated Commercial Trucks .............................................................................................................. 77 Automated Transit Buses ........................................................................................................................ 78 References .................................................................................................................................................. 80 6 Legislative Request This report is consistent with the Joint Explanatory Statement (JES) on the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018:1 Of the total amount provided, up to $1,500,000 shall be for the Secretary of Transportation, in consultation with the Secretary of Labor, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact [of] ADAS and HAV technologies on drivers and operators of commercial motor vehicles, including labor displacement, within one year of enactment of this Act. The analysis shall include stakeholder outreach and examine: (1) reduced situational awareness caused by the operation of these vehicles and options for mitigating such safety risks; (2) visibility, mobility, and safety issues of platooning; and (3) minimum and recommended training requirements. The analysis should also examine labor displacement from the deployment of HAV and ADAS technologies, including: (1) the potential pace of job loss; (2) segments of motor carrier and passenger transportation that could be affected; (3) existing labor market programs that link workers to employment; and (4) recommendations for new public or private sector job training opportunities. The analysis shall not impede or delay any ongoing studies at the Department related to automated vehicles. 1 Joint Explanatory Statement on the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2018, HR 1625, 115th Cong., 2nd sess., Congressional Record 164 (daily ed. March 22, 2018): H 2876, https://www.congress.gov/crec/2018/03/22/CREC- 2018-03-22-bk3.pdf. 7 Executive Summary The 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act provided funding to the Secretary of Transportation for highly automated vehicle research and development, and requested that the Department, in consultation with the Secretary of Labor, “conduct a comprehensive analysis of the impact of ADAS [Advanced Driver- Assistance Systems] and HAV [Highly Automated Vehicles] technologies on drivers and operators of commercial motor vehicles, including labor displacement.” This report, developed by the United States Department of Transportation in coordination with the Department of Labor, Department of Commerce, and Department of Health and Human Services, analyzes the potential impacts of driving automation systems on the professional driving workforce in two industry segments: long-haul trucking and transit buses.2 This report uses SAE International J3016 terminology to refer to levels of automation (see Figure 1). It is based primarily on a review of published literature and analysis of existing datasets. The economic history of the United States includes centuries of innovations that have transformed American life and led to unparalleled prosperity. Innovative technologies foster economic opportunity through the creation of new businesses,