Joe Biden and the 100-day obsession The true cost of long covid A history of post-pandemic booms How to tax capital MAY 1ST–7TH 2021 The most dangerous place on Earth Contents The Economist May 1st 2021 3 The world this week Asia 5 A summary of political 19 Japan’s China lobby and business news 20 South Korea’s economy Isolationist Australia Leaders 21 India’s covid-19-fighters 7 Superpower politics 21 The Taiwan Strait 22 Banyan Deforestation in South-East Asia 8 Long covid The aftershock China 8 American taxes Biden’s taxing problem 23 Is China shrinking? 9 Hungary’s universities 24 America’s China-watchers Viktor Orban’s grab 25 Chloé Zhao gets blocked 10 Hybrid diplomacy On the cover The virtue of virtual How to avoid war over the future of Taiwan: leader, Letters page 7, and briefing, page 14. 12 On money-laundering, United States Disillusionment with voting in Georgia, 27 Joe Biden’s fast start engagement has caused a shift tv European , Ebenezer 30 Students and speech in China analysis, page 24. Howard, simplifying Taiwan’s top chipmaker has a 30 Classics at Howard strategy for Sino-American Briefing 31 Bossing around firms ructions, page 52 14 China and Taiwan 32 Lexington In praise of The risks of war the Mormon right Joe Biden and the 100-day obsession He has gone from The Americas boring candidate to drawing amlo comparisons to Franklin 33 ’s military muscle Roosevelt. Are they justified? 34 Venezuelan quack cures Page 27. What an infrastructure 35 Bello The covid-19 bill bonanza could mean for America’s economy: Free exchange, page 64 The true cost of long covid Middle East & Africa Evidence is mounting that long covid is a real threat to global 37 A mess in the Holy Land health: leader, page 8, and 38 Strange bedfellows in Iraq analysis, page 65 39 Somalia’s crisis 40 Unfinished buildings A history of post-pandemic booms It looks as if things are about to get interesting, page 59 Schumpeter The magical realism of Tesla, page 58 → We are working hard to ensure that there is no dis- ruption to print copies of The Economist as a result of the coronavirus. But if you have digital access as part of your subscription, then acti- vating it will ensure that you can always read the digital version of the newspaper as well as all of our daily jour- nalism. To do so, visit economist.com/activate Contents continues overleaf 4 Contents The Economist May 1st 2021 Europe Finance & economics 41 Turkey and Armenia 59 Post-pandemic booms 42 Poland’s opposition 60 Biden’s capital taxes 42 The church in Spain 61 Buttonwood Private 43 Geeks v bureaucrats credit 44 Charlemagne Integration 62 India’s economy by stealth 62 Labour shortages in America Britain 63 Defending the lira 45 Upcoming elections 64 Free exchange 46 Sewage and covid-19 Infrastructure economics 47 The snp’s poor record Science & technology 48 Bagehot Sleaze and sofas 65 New evidence about long covid International 49 The growth of digital diplomacy Books & arts 68 Orhan Pamuk’s plagues 69 Resistance women 70 Jhumpa Lahiri’s new novel Business 70 Humans and animals 52 tsmc and geopolitics 71 The art of food 53 Privacy v digital ads 54 Indian steelmaking Economic & financial indicators 55 The warehousing boom 72 Statistics on 42 economies 56 Money from trees 56 vw’s works-council king Graphic detail 57 ceo Bartleby Lingering s 73 The true extent of China's military spending 58 Schumpeter Tesla’s magical realism Obituary 74 LaDonna Brave Bull Allard, fighter for a sacred place Volume 439 Number 9243 Published since September Subscription service Please to take part in “a severe contest between For our full range of subscription offers, including The best way to contact our Customer Service intelligence, which presses forward, digital only or print and digital bundled, visit: team is via phone or live chat. 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Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Publisher: The Economist. Printed by Times Printers (in Singapore). MCI (P) No.045/09/2020. PPS 677/11/2012(022861) The world this week Politics The Economist May 1st 2021 5 The Census Bureau reported her Democratic Unionist Party. that America’s population Its members have become Coronavirus briefs stood at 331.4m on April 1st increasingly agitated by the To 6am GMT April 29th 202 2020. That was an increase of post­Brexit deal for Northern 7.4% since 2010, the slowest Ireland, which in effect creates Weekly confirmed cases by area, m 2.5 rate of decennial growth since a border for goods crossing India the Depression. Texas gained from mainland Britain. 2.0 4m people, the most of any Western Europe 1.5 state; Utah’s population grew Somalia’s president promised 1.0 the most in percentage terms: to reverse legislation that Other 0.5 18%. California remains the would extend his term in office US 0 most populous state, but it will by two years, after fighting 2020 2021 India’s second wave of lose a congressional seat for broke out in the capital, Vaccination doses covid­19 gained strength. The the first time ever. Mogadishu. Mohamed % of adults with number of infections detected Abdullahi Mohamed was Total ’000 1st dose nd hit new records, with some California’s governor, Gavin supposed to have stepped Israel 10,468 97 91 380,000 on April 28th alone. Newsom, will probably face an down in February. Bhutan 480 94 0 The official death toll election to recall him from UAE 10,336 79 50 surpassed 200,000, though office later this year, after a More than 80 people were Maldives 382 72 22 evidence grew that many more conservative­driven petition killed when a fire, caused by an Britain 47,045 65 25 Malta 319 60 29 fatalities are going unrecord­ to remove him gathered oxygen cylinder, erupted at a United States 232,408 57 36 ed. Shortages of beds and enough signatures to qualify hospital treating covid­19 Chile 14,324 56 45 oxygen afflicted many hospi­ for the ballot. patients in Baghdad. Bahrain 1,207 52 41 tals. The government ordered Hungary 5,548 49 23 Twitter to remove posts critical Joe Biden used the 106th anni­ In a leaked audio tape Muham­ Sources: Johns Hopkins University CSSE; of its handling of the epidem­ versary of atrocities commit­ mad Javad Zarif, Iran’sforeign Our World in Data; United Nations ic, sparking widespread out­ ted by Turkeyagainst Arme- minister, said that the Revolu­ rage. India now accounts for nians during the first world tionary Guard dictates foreign Japan declared a state of around 40% of the world’s new war to define them as geno­ policy and took Iran into emergency in Tokyo and three recorded infections. cide, the first time an Amer­ Syria’s civil war at the urging of other prefectures. Unlike ican president has formally Russia. He also said that Russia previous restrictions, bars An Indonesian general died in done so. More than 1m Arme­ tried to stop Iran from agreeing selling alcohol and shopping a shoot­out with separatists in nians were deported or died at to a nuclear deal in 2015. Talks malls were told to close. Papua province, in Indone- the hands of the Ottomans. to revive the deal, which Amer­ sia's half of the island of New Turkey protested, but its ica ditched in 2018, resumed in Chile will keep its borders Guinea. Gusti Putu Danny reaction was less intense than Vienna. closed for another month, Karya Nugraha was the first some had feared. even though the number of Indonesian general ever to be In Israel Benny Gantz, the new covid­19 cases is easing. killed in action. Mario Draghi, the prime min­ leader of the Blue and White ister of Italy, laid out his gov­ party, was appointed justice America’s Centres for Disease Fighters from the Karen ernment’s plans for rebuilding minister after Binyamin Net­ Control revised its advice on National Liberation Army, an the economy after covid in the anyahu, the prime minister, wearing masks. Fully vacci­ insurgent group, captured an form of a €248bn ($300bn) tried to slide a member of his nated people do not need to outpost on the Thai border spending package. Almost all own party, Likud, into the wear one outside, it said, from the Burmese army. Sever­ the money will come from the position. Mr Netanyahu’s except in crowded venues, al rebel groups have taken eu, which has imposed some move was deemed illegal by like sports stadiums.