Business Expansion & Recruitment Program March 3, 2015 Prepared By: Kosmont Companies Project Background & Status • Kosmont was retained by the City for the preparation and initial implementation of Business Expansion and Recruitment Program • The purpose of the Program is to evaluate existing market conditions (with a focus on retail and industrial) and effectuate the recommended strategies to successfully promote economic growth within the City • An overview of the Program is presented herein 2 Plan Outline 1. Analysis a) Economic & Demographic Profile b) Market Demand Analysis 2. Strategy a) Trade Area Retailer Voids b) Opportunity Site Assessment & Prioritization 3. Implementation a) Summary of Findings b) Financing & Incentives c) Next Steps 3 Analysis Outline 1. Analysis a) Economic & Demographic Profile i. Population & Household Demographics ii. Unemployment & Employment by Industry b) Market Demand Analysis i. Household & Employment Growth ii. Supply, Vacancy & Lease Rates iii. Taxable Retail Sales Performance iv. Retail Sales Surplus / Leakage 4 1. Analysis Economic & Demographic Profile Population & Household Demographics 5 Demographic Highlights Population & Households • Population of ~97,800 and ~25,400 households within the City in 2014 • Population of ~1.03 million and ~282,400 households within 10 miles of Pedley Road & Jurupa Road Income • Avg. HH income ~$67,500 in City and ~$74,000 within 10 miles • 2.1% annual growth projected for HH income over next 5 years in City Other Demographic Characteristics • Average household size of 3.8 in City (relatively large) • Median age of 31 in City (younger) • 10% Bachelor’s Degree or higher (low) • 69% (approx.) Hispanic in City Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 6 Jurupa Valley City Limits City Limits 5 Miles Note: 5-mile radius shown for scale Source: ESRI (2014) 7 Jurupa Valley Census Designated Places Sunnyslope CDP Glen Avon CDP Rubidoux CDP Mira Loma CDP Pedley CDP *CDP = Census Designated Place Source: ESRI (2014) 8 Jurupa Valley Communities Source: City of Jurupa Valley (2014) 9 Radii & Drive Times (from Pedley Road & Jurupa Road) 10 Minutes 15 Minutes 5 Miles 10 Miles Source: ESRI (2014) 10 Population & Income Overview UPDATED 10/27/14 City of Jurupa Riverside 2014 California Valley County Population 97,781 2,279,642 38,120,066 Households 25,362 708,873 12,837,135 Average HH Size 3.82 3.17 2.91 Median Age 31.0 34.0 35.6 % Hispanic Origin 68.9% 47.8% 39.0% Per Capita Income $17,688 $23,430 $28,657 Median HH Income $53,215 $54,160 $58,469 Average HH Income $67,517 $74,355 $83,845 2014-2019 Ann. Growth Rate Population 1.00% 1.25% 0.77% Median HH Income 2.06% 2.65% 3.13% Source: ESRI (2014) 11 Population & Income Census Designated Places Rubidoux Mira Loma Glen Avon Pedley Sunnyslope 2014 CDP CDP CDP CDP CDP Population 35,069 22,980 20,517 12,968 5,430 Households 9,078 5,489 5,814 3,528 1,244 Average HH Size 3.83 4.18 3.51 3.63 4.26 Median Age 29.8 30.9 31.9 33.7 30.3 % Hispanic Origin 70.4% 70.1% 70.9% 56.8% 75.0% Per Capita Income $16,781 $19,280 $15,727 $21,831 $14,499 Median HH Income $50,996 $64,325 $41,185 $66,786 $50,178 Average HH Income $63,917 $80,601 $55,130 $79,080 $61,490 2014-2019 Ann. Growth Rate Population 0.92% 1.24% 0.74% 0.96% 1.46% Median HH Income 1.74% 2.83% 2.62% 2.55% 2.03% CDP = Census Designated Place Source: ESRI (2014) 12 Population & Income Radii & Drive Times 5-Mile 10-Mile 10-Minute 15-Minute 2014 Radius Radius Drive Time Drive Time Population 214,139 1,027,235 168,402 499,519 Households 56,155 282,394 44,031 137,993 Average HH Size 3.79 3.56 3.80 3.54 Median Age 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.3 % Hispanic Origin 68.1% 60.1% 68.9% 62.5% Per Capita Income $19,744 $23,753 $17,431 $19,162 Median HH Income $52,903 $55,876 $52,863 $52,461 Average HH Income $66,541 $73,987 $65,863 $68,039 2014-2019 Ann. Growth Rate Population 0.92% 0.92% 0.95% 0.95% Median HH Income 1.92% 2.42% 1.84% 2.14% Note: Radii and drive times centered at Pedley Road and Jurupa Road Source: ESRI (2014) 13 Income Profile City of Jurupa Valley – 2014 Households by Income Bracket HH Income Median Avg. City $53K $68K 21% County $54K $74K State $58K $84K 15% 14% 13% 11% 10% 10% 4% 3% <$15K $15K - $25K - $35K - $50K - $75K - $100K - $150K - $200K+ $25K $35K $50K $75K $100K $150K $200K Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 14 Age Profile City Population by Age Bracket in 2014 Median Age 15% City 31.0 13% County 34.0 12% 35.6 State 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 2% 1% 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 15 Race & Ethnicity City Population by Race & Ethnicity in 2014 Asian Alone: 3% Other: 1% Black Alone: 4% 2 or More Races: 5% White Alone Some Other 52% Race Alone 36% *Most respondents of Hispanic Origin additionally indicate “White” or “Some Other Race” Hispanic Origin of Any Race: 69% Note: U.S. Census Bureau defines race and ethnicity as two separate and distinct identities. One Census question asks respondents which socio-political race (of categories in pie chart above) they associate most closely with, and a separate question asks whether they associate with “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin” or not (defined as ethnicity). Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 16 Educational Attainment Population Aged 25+ by Educational Attainment City County State Percent Bachelor’s Degree or Higher 35% 34% City 10% 30% County 21% 29% 27% State 31% 25% 21% 21% 19% 19% 13% 11% 7% 7% 3% No high school High school graduate Some college or Bachelor's degree Graduate or prof. diploma or equivalent Associate's degree degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (2008-2012) 17 Housing & Household Size Housing Breakdown (2014) Avg. Home Value City County State City ~$241,000 60% County ~$282,000 56% State ~$439,000 50% 42% Avg. HH Size City 3.82 33% 3.17 30% County State 2.91 14% 7% 8% Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Vacant Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 18 Population Segmentation Profile Top 5 “Tapestries” in City Percent Sample Characteristics • Hispanic, foreign-born, large families w/ kids • Young, blue collar, renters, modest spenders 1. Urban Villages 47% • Spend on home improvement, groceries, fast food, Denny’s, movies • Similar to Urban Villages, lower educational 2. Barrios Urbanos 16% attainment, higher unemployment • Spend on necessities, do not dine out often • Similar to Urban Villages, but lower incomes 3. Las Casas 11% • More renters, spend on kids/baby products, fast food • Shop at Ralphs, Vons, am/pm for groceries • Older, settled households, educated, mostly married couples, high incomes (white collar) and net worth 4. Pleasantville 9% • Older, single family homes, low vacancy, • Shop online and in stores, from upscale to discount • Married couples in single family homes in low density neighborhoods, low unemployment 5. Home Improvement 4% • East out regularly at fast food and family restaurants, spend on car maintenance Source: ESRI (2014) 19 1. Analysis Economic & Demographic Profile Unemployment & Employment by Industry 20 Unemployment 21% Unemployment Rate (September 2014) 19% Rubidoux CDP 12.3% J.V. Cumulative 9.7% 17% Glen Avon CDP 9.6% 15% County 8.6% Mira Loma CDP 8.3% Sunnyslope CDP 7.5% 13% Rubidoux State 6.9% 11% Pedley CDP 6.0% Glen Avon Riv. County 9% Mira Loma Sunnyslope 7% California Pedley 5% 3% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Not seasonally adjusted; annual averages (2014 = average of January through September) Source: California Employment Development Department (2014) 21 Resident Employment by Occupation Civilian Employed Population Age 16+ by Occupation City County State 36% 29% 26% 25% 24% 23% 22% 19% 19% 19% 14% 13% 11% 11% 9% Management, Sales & office Service Production, Natural resources, business, science & transportation & construction & arts material moving maintenance Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2010); ESRI (2014) 22 Employment by Industry City Resident Employed Population (Age 16+) Workers Employed within City Retail trade 11.9% Transportation & warehousing 21.9% Manufacturing 11.4% Retail trade 11.1% Healthcare & social assist. 9.6% Manufacturing 11.1% Educational services 9.1% Educational services 10.0% Accommodation & food services 7.9% Construction 9.9% Admin. & support & waste mgmt. 7.5% Wholesale trade 6.9% Construction 7.1% Other services, except public admin. 6.0% Transportation & warehousing 6.1% Accommodation & food services 5.4% Wholesale trade 5.9% Healthcare & social assist. 4.8% Public administration 5.0% Admin. & support & waste mgmt. 3.6% Other services, except public admin. 5.0% Prof., scientific & tech. services 2.2% Prof., scientific & tech. services 3.8% Arts, entertainment & recreation 1.4% Finance & insurance 2.6% Management of companies & enterprises 1.2% Arts, entertainment & recreation 1.5% Information 1.1% Management of companies & enterprises 1.4% Real estate rental & leasing 1.0% Real estate rental & leasing 1.2% Public administration 0.9% Information 1.2% Finance & insurance 0.7% Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 1.0% Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 0.4% Utilities 0.9% Utilities 0.2% Mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction 0.1% Mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction 0.0% “Industries in which City residents work” “Jobs in the City” Source: U.S.