EUSKOBAROMETER: FIGURES AND COMMENTS THETHE EUSKADIEUSKADI THATTHAT BREATHESBREATHES ACTIVITYACTIVITY ANDAND SOLIDARITYSOLIDARITY June 2000 EUSKOBAROMETER Nerea Garai Vote estimation position, having also lost Gi- In the event of hypothetical autonomic elections in puzkoa. Euskadi, according to the June Euskobarometer, the elec- Eusko Alkartasuna-EA Euskal herritarren toral results in the Basque Autonomous Community could loose a seat in Gipuz- %85 ez dago would be as follows: koa, while Izquierda Unida Euskadi uzteko The Basque Nationalist Party (United Left) (IU), could prest, ezta beste –PNV would obtain the same majo- recover it in this territory. inon lan eta bizi The Basque rity it has at present, closely follo- Unidad Alavesa (Alavan wed by the Popular Party– PP, the Unity) (UA) would loose baldintza berdinak citizens give low only party that improves its votes one of its two seats. Accor- qualifications to eskainiko the Spanish and seats. These are the two main ding to the figures of the balizkiete ere Parliament, estimations if autonomic elec- Euskobarometer, the par- Justice, the tions were to take place in Eus- ticipation in the hypothe- kadi. The estimations are based tical elections would be around 70%. Political Parties, on the direct intention of vote, the Security Forces plus the liking and a projection They prefer the present legislature to go on of the State and the Army of vote of 9% of occult inten- until its time is up tion and 9% of interviewed 68% of those who were asked prefer Lehendakari Iba- who had not made up their minds, and rretxe to finish the present legislature, and 33% would calculated on different political indicators taken from the rather have immediate elections. The first option wins in spring Euskobarometer. all electorates, from the minimum 42% of UA voters to According to the conclusions obtained last June, there the maximum 87% among PNV voters. would be a virtual draw between nationalists and non- Among those who want immediate elections, only the nationalists. Therefore, only a mixed coalition of nationa- voters of the opposition parties surpass the sample average: lists and non-nationalists would provide stability for the 42% of UA voters, 40% of PP voters, 33% of PSE-EE future of the Basque Government. voters and 27% of IU voters. In relation to historic territories, PNV would win in Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa, whereas PP would win in Araba. Optimism and positive assessment of economy The Socialist Party of Euskadi-Euskadiko Ezkerra (PSE- The Euskobarometer indicates that optimism is still EE) would obtain the same results as in the last election, strong: 7 of every 10 interviewed declare that last year has recovering the third position. As for Euskal Herritarrok- been a good one in personal matters, the same rate declare EH, they would loose three seats, and move back to fourth that in 10 years Euskadi will be a better place. Therefore, it is not surprising to find that 85% would not leave the country, even in the event that they would be offered the EVOLUTION OF THE PROBLEM OF VIOLENCE DURING THE LAST YEAR same life and work conditions elsewhere. ITSIGUE IS THE IGUAL SAME 19%19% (+7) (+7) Violence: the impact of the end of the cease-fire According to public opinion, if the cease-fire meant in last Euskobarometer, when the armed actions of ETA star- ted again, that 83% declared that matter had improved, now 64% believe it is now worse. ITHA HAS MEJORADO IMPROVED The most relevant information is that for the first time 17%17% (-68) (-68) the interviewed perceive massively that the tension deve- ITHA IS EMPEORADO WORSE 64% (+59)64% (+59) loped in the relations between the political parties since two years ago is increasingly provoking social strain. Last 4 EUSKOBAROMETROA: ZIFRAK ETA AZALPENAK Basque SOCIOMETER, Autumn 2000 year only 4 of every 10 interviewed shared this opinion, Spanish State, terrorism has become at present the most whereas now nearly 8 of every 10 agree with it. The main important problem for Basque citizens, and the worry reasons for this are, according to them, the lack of agree- about this problem has become the dominant feeling ment between the Basque nationalist forces and the state when talking about the peace process, as opposed to the parties (45%) and the Spanish Government resistance to high position occupied by hope in ’99, during the cease- change (35%). fire. The self-government institutions and the local institu- The opinion in relation to political parties and prac- tions get the best qualifications: the County Councils tically all leaders has worsened, and Lehendakari Iba- (5.8), the Basque Parliament (5.8), the Ertzaintza (5.7), rretxe is still the most valued political leader. Satisfac- the City Councils (5.7), the European Union (5.1) and the tion in relation to Basque Administrations is however Unions (5.1) are the only institutions which pass. Those still high. 89% of the population feel Basque, and in who fail, according to Basque men and women are the half of it the feeling of being Basque is stronger than Spanish Parliament (4.5), Justice (4.2), that of feeling Spanish. 29% disagree with independence the political parties (4.1), NATO (3.8) and 24% agree with it. Most of the Euskalduns and the Bake prosesua the security forces of the State (3.7) voters of nationalist parties believe that Euskadi is Euskadin: and the Army (3.5). formed by Bizkaia, Gipuzkoa, Araba, Nabarra and Ipa- herritarrak There is still a pervasive sense of rralde, and that it must have the option to decide about itxaropenetik satisfaction in relation to city coun- its independence. etsipenera cils (71%), the county councils (69%) and the Basque Government Progressing in life (64%), and of lack of satisfaction in relation The Basque population gives itself a qualification in to the central Government (52%). The satisfaction in relation to the social level, of barely pass. Personal efforts regard to the Basque Government increases in small are valued (48%), and although half the population believe towns and among the voters of PNV and EA, and the that poverty exists because society is unjust, 27% believe satisfaction with the Central Government increases in the it is inevitable. However, 52% of the Basque men and capitals and among the voters of PP. women believe that it is necessary to achieve a deep social transformation in order to banish poverty. The present Terrorism, the main problem situation of the Basque Country does not reach the passing In relation to preceding periods, terrorism becomes the scores, an in fact these scores have considerably decreased main problem of the Basque Country (65%), surpassing since the beginning of the year, as has optimism in rela- unemployment (45%), which takes now the second posi- tion to the future expectations. tion. Interest in politics seems to be lower than in previous To sum up, half the Basque population believe our surveys, as well as the goal of independence. Political society is not fair and that a deep social transformation is liking decrease generally, as well as the qualifications necessary, although the social issues are not considered of given to the main political leaders. EH and Arnaldo Otegi the first importance in this moment. get especially low scores. As for the peace process, if in APPRAISAL OF BASQUE AND SPANISH POLITICAL SITUATION May’99 the main BASQUE SPANISH sensations were hope and worry, in WON’TNS/NC ANSWER (5%) (+2) 5% (+2) that order, at pre- AVERAGEREGULAR 29%29% (-13) sent worry is REGULARAVERAGE (30%) stronger and so is (-16)(30%) (-16) NoNo Nac. Nac. == 39% disappointment. GOODBUENA (31%) Hope and optimism (+3)(31%) (+3) have become BADMALA BUENAGOOD 9% (-17) clearly minority 61%61% (+34) (+34) feelings now. As it WON’TNS/NC 1% ANSWER (-4) Nac. = 39% has happened in the 1% (-4) BAD (34%) (+11) 5.