CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA ANNUAL REPORT OF THE MONETARY BOARD TO THE HON. MINISTER OF FINANCE FOR THE YEAR 2014 Price per copy Counter sales – Rs. 400 per copy Despatch by ordinary mail – Rs. 650 per copy Despatch by registered mail – Rs. 675 per copy Despatch abroad Air mail (1st Class) – US $ 40 per copy (Registered post) Air mail (2nd Class) – US $ 35 per copy (Registered post) Sea mail – US $ 25 per copy (Registered post) ISBN 978-955-575-304-3 ISSN 1391-359X Printed at Sharp Graphic House (Pvt.) Ltd. , No47, Old Kottawa Road, Pannipitiya, and published by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, No:30, Janadhipathi Mawatha, Colombo 01. Arjuna Mahendran The Governor Central Bank of Sri Lanka 30, Janadhipathi Mawatha Colombo 1, Sri Lanka April 27, 2015 The Honorable Minister of Finance Ministry of Finance The Secretariat Colombo 01. Dear Sir Annual Report of the Monetary Board 2014 In terms of Section 35 of the Monetary Law Act (Chapter 422), within four months after the end of each financial year, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka is required to submit an Annual Report to the Honorable Minister of Finance on the condition of the Central Bank and a review of the policies and measures adopted by the Monetary Board during the financial year and an analysis of the economic and financial circumstances which prompted those policies and measures. The Sixty Fifth Annual Report of the Monetary Board of the Central Bank, in respect of the year 2014, is submitted herewith in fulfillment of this obligation. Yours sincerely, CENTRAL BANK OF SRI LANKA THE MONETARY BOARD AJITH NIVARD CABRAAL Governor P. B. JAYASUNDERA Secretary to the Ministry of Finance and Planning MRS. M. RAMANATHAN Appointed Member NIMAL WELGAMA Appointed Member N. A. UMAGILIYA Appointed Member PRINCIPAL OFFICERS AS AT 31 December 2014 Deputy Governors B. D. W. ANANDA SILVA P. NANDALAL WEERASINGHE P. SAMARASIRI Assistant Governors MRS. J. P. MAMPITIYA W. M. HEMACHANDRA S. LANKATHILAKE C. J. P. SIRIWARDANA (Secretary to the Monetary Board) MRS. R. DHEERASINGHE K. D. RANASINGHE (On Release) S. S. RATNAYAKE S. R. ATTYGALLE (On Release) H. A. KARUNARATNE C. P. A. KARUNATILAKE D. WASANTHA DEPARTMENTAL HEADS Bank Supervision Department MRS. T. M. J. Y. P. FERNANDO - Director S. K. RANASINGHE - Additional Director Centre for Banking Studies C. N. WIJAYASEKERA - Director Communications Department S. J. A. HANDAGAMA - Director T. M. Z. MUTALIPH - Additional Director Currency Department MRS. C. M. D. N. K. SENEVIRATNE - Superintendent MRS. H. P. T. WIJESURIYA - Additional Superintendent MISS. S. H. GUNAWARDENA - Additional Superintendent Domestic Operations Department R. A. A. JAYALATH - Director H. B. D. KARUNARATNE - Additional Director Economic Research Department MRS. S. GUNARATNE - Director MRS. Y. M. INDRARATNE - Additional Director D. KUMARATUNGE - Additional Director MRS. K. N. N. M. BANDARA - Additional Director Employees’ Provident Fund Department P. W. D. N. R. RODRIGO - Superintendent T. D. H. KARUNARATHNE - Additional Superintendent M. S. K. DHARMAWARDENA - Additional Superintendent A. G. U. THILAKARATHNA - Additional Superintendent Exchange Control Department D. M. RUPASINGHE - Controller of Exchange R. R. JAYARATNE - Additional Controller of Exchange Facilities Management Department U. H. E. SILVA - Director H. SRIYARATNE - Additional Director K. D. R. PIYATILLEKE - Additional Director Finance Department P. V. L. NANDASIRI - Chief Accountant P. A. WIJERATNE - Additional Chief Accountant Financial Intelligence Unit H. AMARATHUNGA - Director D. K. WIJESURIYA - Additional Director Financial Sector Research Department H. M. EKANAYAKE - Director H. P. G. S. RATNASIRI - Additional Director Governor’s Secretariat Department MRS. K. DASSANAYAKE - Director Human Resources Department MRS. K. GUNATILAKE - Director K. M. ABEYKOON - Additional Director Information Technology Department MRS. R. A. S. M. DAYARATHNA - Director C. B. PATHBERIYA - Additional Director K. V. K. ALWIS - Additional Director Internal Audit Department A. M. N. GUNAWARDANA - Director L. D. D. Y. PERERA - Additional Director International Operations Department A. A. M. THASSIM - Director T. H. B. SARATHCHANDRA - Additional Director Payments and Settlements Department MRS. R. B. WEERASINGHE - Director A. J. L. PEIRIS - Additional Director R. M. JAYAWARDENA - Additional Director Policy Review and Monitoring Department MISS. K. SARAVANAMUTTU - Director MRS. R. A. PERERA - Additional Director Public Debt Department N. W. G. R. D. NANAYAKKARA - Superintendent and Registrar MRS. U. L. MUTHUGALA - Additional Superintendent M. Z. M. AAZIM - Additional Superintendent Regional Development Department M. J. S. ABEYSINGHE - Director A. M. R. K. ATTANAYAKE - Additional Director MRS. D. V. S. DAYAWANSA - Additional Director Regional Offices Monitoring Department D. A. G. K. WIJETUNGA - Director V. BASKARAN - Additional Director Secretariat Department M. I. SUFIYAN - Secretary B. W. JINASENA - Additional Secretary Security Services Department S. WANIGASEKERA - Director B. L. J. S. BALASOORIYA - Additional Director Staff Services Management Department E. A. HETTIARACHCHI - Director T. W. ARIYARATNE - Additional Director Statistics Department A. R. K. WIJESEKERA - Director K. H. A. S. ARIYARATNA - Additional Director Supervision of Non-Bank Financial Institutions Department J. P. R. KARUNARATNE - Director MRS. N. H. E. R. SIRIWARDENA - Additional Director AUDITOR W P C WICKRAMARATNE Acting Auditor General CONTENTS PART I Page 1. ECONOMIC, PRICE AND FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY, OUTLOOK AND POLICIES 1.1 Overview … … … … 1 1.2 Macroeconomic Developments Stability and Policy Responses in 2014 … … … 2 Real Sector Developments and Inflation ... … … … 2 External Sector Developments ... … … … 7 Fiscal Sector Developments ... … … … 10 Monetary Sector Developments ... … … … 12 Financial Sector Developments ... … … … 15 1.3 Global Economic Environment and Outlook … … … … 17 1.4 Medium Term Macroeconomic Outlook … … … … 17 1.5 Issues and Policies … … … … 22 2. NATIONAL OUTPUT AND EXPENDITURE 2.1 Overview … … … … 29 2.2 GDP,GDP per capita and Gross National Product (GNP) … … … … 30 2.3 Sectoral Output, Policies, Institutional Support and Issues … … … … 33 Agriculture … … … … 33 Paddy … … … … 33 Tea … … … … 35 Rubber … … … … 35 Coconut … … … … 36 Minor Export Crops … … … … 37 Other Field Crops … … … … 37 Vegetables … … … … 38 Sugar … … … … 38 Fisheries … … … … 38 Livestock … … … … 39 Forestry … … … … 40 Agricultural Policies and Institutional Support … … … … 40 Industry … … … … 44 Mining and Quarrying … … … … 45 Manufacturing … … … … 45 Processing … … … … 45 Factory Industry … … … … 45 Factory Industry Production Index … … … … 46 Industrial Policies and Institutional Support … … … … 48 Cottage Industry … … … … 50 Electricity, Gas and Water … … … … 50 Construction … … … … 51 Services … … … … 51 Wholesale and Retail Trade … … … … 51 Hotels and Restaurants … … … … 52 Transport and Communication … … … … 53 Banking, Insurance and Real Estate … … … … 54 Government Services … … … … 54 Private Services … … … … 54 2.4 Expenditure … … … … 54 Consumption … … … … 55 Investment … … … … 57 Availability and Utilisation of Resources … … … … 58 Savings … … … … 59 3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE 3.1 Overview … … … … 61 3.2 Economic Infrastructure Policies, Institutional Framework and Performance … … 62 Page Communication Services … … … … 62 Petroleum … … … … 63 Electricity … … … … 66 Road Development ... … … … 68 Road Passenger Transportation ... ... ... … 69 Rail Transportation … … … … 70 Civil Aviation … … … … 71 Port Services ... … … … 72 Water Supply and Irrigation … … … … 73 3.3 Social Infrastructure Policies, Institutional Framework and Performance … … … 74 Health … … … … 74 Education … … … … 76 Housing and Urban Development … … … … 79 Poverty Alleviation and Safety Nets … … … … 80 Environment … … … … 81 4. PRICES, WAGES, EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY 4.1 Overview ... … … … 83 4.2 Prices … … … … 84 Price Movements and Contributory Factors … … … … 84 Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI) … … … … 84 Price Movements in the Food Category … … … … 84 Price Movements in the Non-food Category … … … … 87 Core Inflation … … … … 88 GDP Deflator … … … … 88 4.3 Wages … … … … 90 Public Sector Wages … … … … 90 Formal Private Sector Wages … … … … 90 Informal Private Sector Wages … … … … 91 4.4 Population, Labour Force and Employment … … … … 92 Population … … … … 92 Labour Force … … … … 93 Employment … … … … 94 Unemployment … … … … 97 Foreign Employment … … … … 99 Labour Relations and Labour Market Reforms … … … … 100 Labour Productivity … … … … 101 5. EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS AND POLICIES 5.1 Overview … … … … 103 5.2 External Trade Policies and Institutional Support … … … … 104 5.3 Trade in Goods, Trade Balance, Terms of Trade and Direction of Trade … … … 107 Export Performance … … … … 107 Import Performance … … … … 110 Trade Balance … … … … 112 Terms of Trade … … … … 113 Direction of Trade … … … … 115 5.4 Current and Capital Account … … … … 116 Trade in Services … … … … 116 Transport Services … … … … 116 Travel and Tourism … … … … 120 Telecommunications, Computer and Information Services … … … 122 Primary Income … … … … 123 Secondary Income … … … … 123 5.5 Current Account Balance … … … … 124 5.6 Capital Account Balance … … … … 124 5.7 Financial Account … … … … 124 Direct Investment … … … … 124 Portfolio Investment … … … … 125 Equity and Investment Fund Shares … … … … 125 Debt Securities … … … … 126 Page Other Investment … … … … 126 Currency