Electrifying Africa A twelve leverage points approach to finding a faster electrification rate Mikael Rosander Jonatan Ala-Mutka Bachelor of Science Thesis KTH School of Industrial Engineering and Management Energy Technology EGI-2017 SE-100 44 STOCKHOLM -2- Bachelor of Science Thesis EGI-2017 Electrifying Africa Mikael Rosander Jonatan Ala-Mutka Approved Examiner Supervisor Date Mark Howells Per Lundqvist Commissioner Contact person -3- Abstract Future projections show that over 500 million people living in Sub-Saharan Africa will be without electricity in 2040 according to IEA, even though UN has set a goal of universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 2030. This shows that the rate of change is too slow and that there is a need for a greater electrification rate. In an attempt to solve this problem the 12 leverage points framework by Donella Meadows is applied on the SSA energy system to get an overview of different places to intervene in the system and what strength of leverage these hold. The result is a text analyzing leverage points within each of the 12 leverage point categories and high leverage was found in several categories. The results are subjective and the framework is evaluated in the context of these. Finally suggestions on how the framework can be improved are recommended and what types of applications for the framework that are viable. Sammanfattning Framtida projektioner pekar på att över 500 miljoner människor som bor i Sub-Sahara Afrika kommer att vara utan elektricitet 2040 enligt IEA. FN har satt ett mål om universell access till överkomlig, pålitlig och moderna energi tjänster till 2030. Denna diskrepans visar att förändringshastigheten är för långsam och att det föreligger ett behov av en högre elektrifieringstakt. I ett försök att lösa detta problem har 12 Leverage Points ramverket av Donella Meadows tillämpats på SSA energi system för att skapa en överblick över olika platser att ingripa I systemet och hur effektivt man kan ingripa vid dessa. Resultatet är en text som analyserar Leverage Points från de 12 olika Leverage Point kategorierarna och starka möjligheter för effektivt ingripande återfanns I flera kategorier. Slutligen rekommenderas förslag hur ramverket kan förbättras och vilken sorts tillämpningar av ramverket som är praktiskt. -4- Table of contents Nomenclature ............................................................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 10 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................................... 10 1.2 Problem statement .......................................................................................................................... 10 1.3 Goal of thesis ................................................................................................................................... 11 1.4 Limitations ........................................................................................................................................ 12 1.5 Structure ............................................................................................................................................ 14 2. Method ................................................................................................................................................ 16 2.1 Step 1: Gathering information ................................................................................................. 17 2.2 Step 2: Classification through the 12 Leverage points framework ..................................... 17 2.3 Step 3: Construction of a model interpreting the system dynamics ................................... 17 2.4 Step 4: Evaluation of the 12 leverage points framework ..................................................... 18 2.5 Models ......................................................................................................................................... 18 2.6 The Twelve leverage point framework ................................................................................... 19 3. Context ................................................................................................................................................ 26 3.1 Economy ..................................................................................................................................... 26 3.2 Demography ............................................................................................................................... 27 3.3 Energy in sub-Saharan Africa .................................................................................................. 27 3.4 Electricity in sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................. 29 3.5 Future Projections ..................................................................................................................... 32 3.6 Challenges ................................................................................................................................... 36 4. Application of the 12 Leverage points framework in the sub-Saharan African energy system 38 4.12 Constants, parameters and numbers ...................................................................................... 38 4.11 The sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows .......................... 39 4.10 The structure of material stocks and flows ........................................................................... 42 4.9 The length of delays relative to the rate of system change ................................................... 47 4.8 The strength of negative feedback loops relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against.................................................................................................................................................. 49 4.7: The gain around driving positive feedback loops ................................................................. 52 4.6 Structure of information flows ................................................................................................. 55 4.5 The rules of the system .............................................................................................................. 57 4.4 The power to add, change, evolve or self-organize system structure ................................. 59 4.3 The goals of the system.............................................................................................................. 62 -5- 4.2 The mindset, or paradigm, out of which the system –its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters - arises ............................................................................................................................. 66 4.1 The power to transcend paradigms .......................................................................................... 68 5. Results and discussion ....................................................................................................................... 70 5.1 Result 1: 12 Leverage points .................................................................................................... 70 5.2 Result 2: System Dynamics model of the SSA energy system .................................................. 72 5.3 Result 3: Evaluation of the 12 leverage points framework ....................................................... 75 5.4 Evaluation of our results within the 12 leverage points ............................................................ 77 5.5 Evaluation of method ..................................................................................................................... 78 6. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 82 7. Future recommendations .................................................................................................................. 84 8. References ........................................................................................................................................... 86 9 Appendixes ............................................................................................................................................... 90 -6- Table of figures Figure 1: Map of Africa showing sub-Saharan Africa and its main sub-regions as used within this thesis. (IEA, 2014) ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 3: The focal point of the thesis lies in the intersection of Economics, Technology and management. ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 4: The four step funnel-approach that breaks up the method. ............................................... 16 Figure 5: A conceptual stock-and-flow model of a system. ................................................................. 18 Figur 6: The twelve leverage points as described by Donella Meadows. (Meadows, 2008) ............ 20 Figur 7: Population and per capita energy demand by country in sub-Saharan Africa, 2012. (IEA, 2014)