The Art Market 2021 An Art Basel & UBS Report Prepared by Dr. Clare McAndrew Founder of Arts Economics Contents Tables and Figures 4 Auction Sales Online Sales Economic Impact and Conclusions Acknowledgments 11 3 5 7 Director’s Foreword 14 Key Findings 102 Key Findings 210 Key Findings 330 Foreword by UBS 15 3.1 | Auction Sales in 2020 104 5.1 | The Online Art Market 212 7.1 | Employment in the Art Market 3.2 | Price Segmentation in Fine Art Auctions 120 5.2 | The Online Retail Market 216 in 2020 332 Key Findings 17 3.3 | Fine Art Sectors 132 5.3 | Online Auctions 230 7.2 | Dealer Sector Employment 333 3.4 | Post-War and Contemporary Art 136 5.4 | HNW Collectors and Buying Online 242 7.3 | Auction Sector Employment 338 3.5 | Modern Art 148 5.5 | Website Traffic and Social Media 250 7.4 | Ancillary Economic Impact 340 3.6 | Impressionism and Post-Impressionism 154 5.6 | Conclusions 260 7.5 | Conclusions 343 The Global Art Market in 2020 1 3.7 | Old Masters and European Old Masters 160 3.8 | Conclusions 168 Key Findings 28 Global Wealth and Appendix – Sources Used in 1.1 | Overview of Global Sales 30 Collector Perspectives The Art Market 2021 352 1.2 | Global Market Share 34 Art Fairs 6 1.3 | Regional Performance 35 4 Key Findings 266 Key Findings 172 6.1 | Global Wealth in 2020 268 4.1 | Art Fairs in 2020 174 6.2 | Wealth Distribution and Millionaires 272 Dealer Sales 2 4.2 | Art Fair Calendar and Cancellations 6.3 | Billionaires 277 in 2020 175 6.4 | Art Collectors Survey 281 Key Findings 50 4.3 | Art Fair Survey 2020 180 6.5 | Description of the Collector Sample 287 2.1 | Dealers Surveyed in 2020 52 4.4 | Impact on Gallery Exhibitions in 2020 184 6.6 | HNW Collections of Art 292 2.2 | Dealer Sales 58 4.5 | Art Fairs and HNW Collectors 196 6.7 | HNW Collectors’ Expenditure on Art 2.3 | Dealer Margins 66 4.6 | Conclusions 205 in 2020 296 2.4 | Buyers 74 6.8 | Buying Channels for HNW Collectors 2.5 | Artist Representation 79 in 2020 306 2.6 | Artist Representation by Career Stage 82 6.9 | Collector Motivations 318 2.7 | Artists’ Gender and Representation 86 6.10 | Collectors’ Outlook 323 2.8 | Outlook for the Dealer Sector 90 4 Tables and Figures 5 Tables and Figures The Global Art Market in 2020 Figure 2.20 | Change in Sales 2019–2020 by Share of Female Artists Represented 89 1 Figure 2.21 | Perceptions of Level of Support Received by Dealers versus their National Peers 91 Table 1.1 | The Global Art Market: Value and Volume of Transactions 31 Figure 2.22 | Perceptions of Level of Support Received by Dealers versus Same Size Global Peers 92 Figure 2.23 | Dealers’ Perceptions of Performance in 2020 94 Figure 1.1 | Sales in the Global Art Market 2009–2020 32 Figure 2.24 | Dealers’ Outlook for Sales in 2021 96 Figure 1.2 | Growth in Sales in the Global Art and Antiques Market 33 Figure 2.25 | Top Business Priorities for Dealers in 2019 and 2020 98 Figure 1.3 | Global Art Market Share by Value in 2020 34 Figure 1.4 | Global Art Market Share of the US, UK, and Greater China 2011–2020 35 Figure 1.5 | Sales in the Major Art Markets 2009–2020 41 Auction Sales 3 Table 3.1 | Annual Growth and Share of Sales of Auction Sales by Price Segment 124 Dealer Sales Table 3.2 | Global Market Share: Old Masters Paintings in 2020 2 163 Figure 2.1 | Annual Sales Turnover of Survey Respondents in 2020 53 Figure 3.1 | Global Public Auction Sales 2011–2020 105 Figure 2.2 | Number of Years in Business 54 Figure 3.2 | Public Auction Market Global Share by Value in 2020 107 Figure 2.3 | Gallery Operating Restrictions and Measures in December 2020 55 Figure 3.3 | Share of Total Sales by Sales Channel (Second-Tier Auction Houses) 113 Figure 2.4 | Average Changes in Year-on-Year Turnover by Dealer Turnover Segment 2019–2020 59 Figure 3.4 | Number of Buyers in 2020 by Second-Tier Auction House Turnover Level 114 Figure 2.5 | Average Changes in Year-on-Year Turnover by Dealer Sector 2019–2020 60 Figure 3.5 | Local versus Foreign Buyers: Number and Share of Sales in 2020 115 Figure 2.6 | Volume of Sales by Price Bracket in 2019 versus 2020 61 Figure 3.6 | Share of Sales by Buyer Type for Second-Tier Auction Houses in 2020 116 Figure 2.7 | Dealers’ Outlook on Future Sales in 2021 62 Figure 3.7 | Share of Sales to Buyer Groups by Purchase History in 2020 117 Figure 2.8 | Share of Total Costs for Dealers in 2019 versus 2020 67 Figure 3.8 | Second-Tier Auction Houses’ Outlook for Sales in 2021 118 Figure 2.9 | Debt Ratios in the Dealer Sector 69 Figure 3.9 | Share of Lots Sold and Total Value at Global Fine Art Auctions in 2020 by Price Bracket 121 Figure 2.10 | Change in (Net) Profitability in 2019 versus 2020 70 Figure 3.10 | Share of Global Fine Art Auction Sales by Price Bracket (Online versus Offline) 122 Figure 2.11 | Number of Unique Buyers in 2020 75 Figure 3.11 | Growth of Sales by Value in Auction Price Segments 2005–2020 127 Figure 2.12 | Share of Dealer Sales to Buyer Groups by Purchase History in 2020 76 Figure 3.12 | Market Share of the Fine Art Auction Market by Price Segment in 2020 128 Figure 2.13 | Share of Dealer Sales by Buyer Type in 2020 78 Figure 3.13 | Share of the Fine Art Auction Sales by Female Artists by Price Level in 2020 130 Figure 2.14 | Number of Artists Represented by Dealers in 2020 80 Figure 3.14 | Market Share by Value of the Fine Art Auction Market: Selected Years 2000–2020 134 Figure 2.15 | Share of Artists Represented by Primary Market Dealers in 2020 83 Figure 3.15 | Market Share by Sector of the Fine Art Auction Market in 2020 135 Figure 2.16 | Change in Sales 2019 to 2020 by Share of Artists (Primary Market Dealers) 84 Figure 3.16 | The Post-War and Contemporary Art Sector: 2009–2020 137 Figure 2.17 | Share of Female versus Male Artists by Dealer Turnover 86 Figure 3.17 | Market Share of the Post-War and Contemporary Sector in 2020 138 Figure 2.18 | Share of Female Primary Market Artists Represented by Dealers 2018-2020 87 Figure 3.18 | Sales in the Post-War and Contemporary Sector 2009–2020: Key Markets 139 Figure 2.19 | Share of Female Artists Represented by Dealers in 2020 88 Figure 3.19 | Sales by Price Bracket in the Post-War and Contemporary Sector in 2020 140 6 Tables and Figures 7 Figure 3.20 | Share of Sales by Living versus Deceased Post-War and Contemporary Artists in 2020 143 Figure 4.14 | Share of Art Fair Sales by Dealers in 2019 versus 2020 194 Figure 3.21 | Share of Sales within the Post-War and Contemporary Sector: Living and Deceased Artists 144 Figure 4.15 | Share of HNW Collectors Purchasing from Art Fairs in 2020 196 Figure 3.22 | Sales of Living Artists’ Works by Price Bracket in 2020 146 Figure 4.16 | Exhibitions and Events Attended by HNW Collectors in 2019 versus 2020 198 Figure 3.23 | The Modern Art Sector: 2009–2020 149 Figure 4.17 | Planned Attendance at Local and International Events in 2021 200 Figure 3.24 | Market Share of the Modern Sector in 2020 150 Figure 4.18 | Earliest Date Collectors Plan to Attend Gallery Exhibitions and Fairs in Next 12 Months 202 Figure 3.25 | Sales in the Modern Sector 2009–2020: Key Markets 151 Figure 4.19 | Dealers’ Views on Art Fair Sales for All Galleries in 2021 205 Figure 3.26 | Sales in the Modern Sector by Price Bracket in 2020 153 Figure 4.20 | Dealers’ Views on the Future of their own Art Fair Sales 206 Figure 3.27 | Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Auction Sales 2009–2020 155 Figure 3.28 | Market Share of the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector in 2020 156 Figure 3.29 | Sales in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector 2009–2020: Key Markets 157 Online Sales Figure 3.30 | Sales by Price Bracket in the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist Sector in 2020 158 5 Figure 3.31 | Old Masters Painting Sales 2009–2020 160 Table 5.1 | Website Metrics: Selected Companies in 2020 254 Figure 3.32 | Sales in the Old Masters Sector 2009–2020: Key Markets 165 Figure 5.1 | The Online Art and Antiques Market 2013–2020 213 Figure 3.33 | Sales in the Old Masters Sector by Price Bracket in 2019 166 Figure 5.2 | Share of Online Sales in the Art Market versus General Retail 2016–2020 214 Figure 5.3 | Average Share of Dealer Sales made Online (2019 versus 2020) 216 Figure 5.4 | Average Share of Dealer Sales by Value Made Online in 2019 versus 2020 by Level Art Fairs 4 of Turnover 218 Figure 5.5 | Share of Online Sales by Dealers by Buyer Category in 2020 220 Figure 4.1 | Share of Global Art Fairs (Live Events) Cancelled in 2020 (365 Fairs) 175 Figure 5.6 | Share of Online Sales by Buyer Category and Level of Dealer Turnover in 2020 221 Figure 4.2 | Fairs Held and Cancelled and Monthly Cancellation Rates in 2020 (365 Fairs) 176 Figure 5.7 | Most Helpful Online Strategies for Dealers in 2020 and 2021 223 Figure 4.3 | Fairs Held and Cancelled and Cancellation Rates by Region in 2020 (365 Fairs) 177 Figure 5.8 | Growth in Online Metrics from March to December 2020 (Artlogic) 224 Figure 4.4 | Share of Art Fairs Holding Online Editions in 2020 (365 Fairs) 178 Figure 5.9 | Increase in Share of Online-Only Sales: Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips 231 Figure 4.5 | Share of Enquiries at Online-Only Artsy-Hosted Fairs (69 Fairs) 179 Figure 5.10 | Share of Online Sales by Second-Tier Auction House Annual Turnover in 2020 233 Figure 4.6 | Share of Works Offered on Art Fair OVRs in 2020 (138 Fairs) 181 Figure 5.11 | Share of Online Sales to Buyer Categories by Share of Auction House Online Sales 234 Figure 4.7 | Share of Works Offered on Art Fair OVRs by Price Segment 182 Figure 5.12 | Share of Online-Only Lots Sold (Fine Art Auctions) in 2020 236 Figure 4.8 | Art