BROWN TO GREEN THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY | 2018 G20very low low medium high very high 2018 BROWN TO GREEN | 2018 ABOUT CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY AND THIS REPORT 14 20 80 PARTNERS MAJOR INDICATORS ECONOMIES Our global partnership Our mission is to encourage Our Brown to Green Report is the brings together experts from ambitious climate action in the world’s most comprehensive annual research organisations and G20 countries: we inform policy review of G20 climate action: we NGOs in the majority of the makers and stimulate national provide concise and comparable G20 countries. debate. information on mitigation, finance and vulnerability. Partners: Supported by: Funders: based on a decision of the German Bundestag Data Partners: 2 BROWN TO GREEN THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY | 2018 FOREWORD: A G20 Stocktake on Climate Action .......................... 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ......................................................... 8 THE GAP: Are the G20 countries on track to stay below 1 the Paris Agreement temperature limit? ................................10 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: What has happened in the 2 G20 countries since the Paris conference? ..............................14 BROWN AND GREEN PERFORMERS: Who are the leaders and laggards among the G20 countries? ....................................18 3 3.1 Emissions .............................................................18 3.2 Sectoral decarbonisation trends and climate policies .....................20 3.3 Financing the transition ...............................................30 FAIRNESS: What are the G20 countries doing to make 4 the transition just? ......................................................38 Endnotes ................................................................... 40 Authors and Acknowledgements ............................................ 43 BROWN TO GREEN: THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY | 2018 GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS BROWN TO(INCL. GREEN FORESTRY) :PER CAPITA (tCO2e/capita) AUSTR THE G20 TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY | 2018 19.3 8 Data from 2015 | Source: PRIMAP 2018 Australia G20 average GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS (INCL. FORESTRY) PER CAPITA RGENTN (tCO2e/capita) Based on implemented policies, Australia’s GHG emissions are expected The gap: to rise to 548 MtCO2e by 2030 (excl. forestry). This emission pathway is not 1 Is Australia on track compatible with the Paris Agreement. + 4° + 3° to stay below the Australia’s NDC is not consistent with the Paris Agreement‘s temperature 2 8.6 8 Current NDC + 2° Paris Agreement limit but would lead to a warming of between 2°C and 3°C.2 Data from 2014 | Source: Argentina BUR 2017 Argentina G20 average temperature limit? + 1.5° Australia’s policies are failing to address the need for structural change + 1.3° to help achieve the necessary emissions reductions. Eff ectiveBased onpolicies implemented are policies, Argentina’s GHG emissions are expected missing in every sector.3 ? to increase to around 470 MtCO2e by 2030 (excl. forestry). This emission The gap: pathway is not compatible withSource: the CAT Paris 2018 Agreement.1 Is Argentina on 2 + 4° Argentina is one of the few countries that has increased its NDC targets, Current NDC track to stay + 3° improving content and refl ection of national policies but the NDC is not + 2° below the Paris consistent with the Paris Agreement‘s temperature limit but would lead The current government The government has not On the subnational level, + 1.5° Agreement 2 Recent does not intend to introduce been ableto a towarming agree of onbetween 3°Cclimate and 4°C. action is more + 1.3° developments: any policy to temperatureachieve limit?establishingArgentina’s emissions sectoral policies stillvisible. fall shortFor of example,being consistent the with the What has happened emissions reductions in the standards temperaturefor light motorlimit, especially withAustralian respect Capitalto fossil fuels,Territory agriculture and ? 3 since the Paris energy sector. Instead it is vehicles, transport,which are but being Argentina is showinghas set some a progressnation-leading on renewable energy. Source: CAT 2018 conference? discussing subsiding fossil considered by a Ministerial target to achieve net zero fuel power generation. Forum. GHG emissions by 2045 and Victoria aims to reach net ? The government decidedzero inGHG emissionsIn by2016 2050. the government Argentina implemented a The Brown to Green Report 2018 consists of this summary report and in-depth country Recent 2017 to guarantee subsidies launched a US$5.7bn invest- carbon tax in 2017 (although developments: for gas exploitation until 2021. ment programme to push it does not include emissions What has happened renewable energies, and from natural gas) and Brown and green EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF since the ParisTRANSPORT EMISSIONS PER CAPITA CARBON INTENSITY OF THEreceived ENERGY funding from the has adopted important Green Climate Fund to climate policies such as performance: THE POWER SECTOR conference? (tCO2/capita) SECTOR (gCO /kWh) guarantee the investment the Renewable Energy Act, Where does 2 Tonnes of CO2 per unit of total and the Renewable Energy primary energy supplythrough (tCO2/TJ) the World Bank. Australia lead or lag ? Distributed Generation Law. profiles for each G20 country. The country profiles and a technical note on data sources compared to G20 763 countries? 1.13 4.04 ? 490 76 Brown and green SHARE OF BROWN PUBLIC SHARE OF NEW RENEWABLES ENERGY USE PER CAPITA performance: POWER FINANCE (EXCL. HYDRO) IN ENERGY SUPPLY (Total primary energy supply in GJ per capita) G20 average Where does G20 average (2013-2015 annual average)G20 average: 59% Argentina lead or Data from 2016 | Source: Enerdata 2018 Data from 2017 | Source:100 Enerdata% 2018 Data from 2017 | Source: Enerdata 2018 lag compared to 80.9 and methodology can be downloaded at G20 countries? 4.2% This country profi le is part of the Brown to? Green 2018 report. The full report and other G20 country profi les can be downloaded at: http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2018 G20 average: 67% G20 average: 5.4% 1 G20 average: 97.2 AUSTRALIA Country Facts 2018 Source: Oil Change International 2017 Data from 2017 | Source: Enerdata 2018 Data from 2017 | Source: Enerdata 2018 www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2018 This country profi le is part of the Brown to Green 2018 report. The full report and other G20 country profi les can be downloaded at: http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-climate-performance/g20report2018 1 ARGENTINA Country Facts 2018 3 BROWN TO GREEN | 2018 FOREWORD: A G20 Stocktake on Climate Action Alvaro Umaña and Peter Eigen The Global Stocktake established in Article 14 of Our Brown to Green Report supports the process of the Paris Agreement aims to “assess the collective raising climate ambition. It is a simple stocktake progress” towards the agreed goals: 1) holding on climate action (with a focus on mitigation and the increase in global average temperature to finance) of the G20 countries produced collectively well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the by 14 organisations from different G20 countries. increase to 1.5°C; 2) increasing the ability to adapt Setting an example: The Brown to Green Report to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster compares climate action of countries with their climate resilience; and 3) making all finance flows G20 peers as well as collectively and for some consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse specific policies against 1.5°C benchmarks. It gas (GHG) emissions and climate-resilient provides indicators on emissions, decarbonisation, development. climate policies and finance. Our report shows that At the moment, we are far away from taking the substantial information is already available on what action needed to achieve these three goals. Current countries are doing or not doing. This analysis can nationally determined contributions (NDCs) would inform the preparation of the next round of NDCs to lead to a global temperature increase of around be submitted by 2020 and can drive more ambitious 3.2°C. The Global Stocktake together with the NDCs climate action. are the key elements of the Paris Agreement aimed Ensuring accountability: To hold governments at ratcheting up the ambition of national climate accountable, transparency and a critical level of actions. Countries need to submit their revised NDCs public attention are required. Our country profiles by 2020. Those that have not yet submitted an NDC for all G20 countries are each 15 pages long, with a 2025/30 target must provide a new NDC. providing concise and illustrative information with All other countries are invited to strengthen their country-tailored messages. These help our global NDCs. Informed by the Intergovernmental Panel on partnership to inform national climate policy Climate Change (IPCC) 1.5°C Special Report and the agendas. We promote the findings of the Brown to Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, it is clear that these next Green Report in the media, in stakeholder workshops NDCs must increase the level of ambition through and in government briefings in the G20 countries much stronger 2030 targets. The cycle of assessing through local partners. collective progress and increasing the ambition of national climate actions will then continue with the first five-yearly Global Stocktake in 2023, to inform the submission of new and strengthened NDCs