This Document is Approved for Public Release A multi-disciplinary, multi-method approach to leader assessment at a distance: The case of Bashar al-Assad A Quick Look Assessment by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA)1 Part II: Analytical Approaches2 February 2014 Contributors: Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia), Mr. Bradford H. Morrison (University of British Columbia), Mr. Ryan W. Cross (University of British Columbia) Dr. Larry Kuznar (Indiana University – Purdue University, Fort Wayne), Maj Jason Spitaletta (Joint Staff J-7 & Johns Hopkins University), Dr. Kathleen Egan (CTTSO), Mr. Sean Colbath (BBN), Mr. Paul Brewer (SDL), Ms. Martha Lillie (BBN), Mr. Dana Rafter (CSIS), Dr. Randy Kluver (Texas A&M), Ms. Jacquelyn Chinn (Texas A&M), Mr. Patrick Issa (Texas A&M) Edited by: Dr. Hriar Cabayan (JS/J-38) and Dr. Nicholas Wright, MRCP PhD (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Copy Editor: Mr. Sam Rhem (SRC) 1 SMA provides planning support to Combatant Commands (CCMD) with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are not within core Service/Agency competency. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff, J3, DDSAO and executed by OSD/ASD (R&E)/RSD/RRTO. 2 This is a document submitted to provide timely support to ongoing concerns as of February 2014. 1 This Document is Approved for Public Release 1 ABSTRACT This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources. The results are summarized in a two-part report. Part I provides a summary, comparison of results, and recommendations. Part II (this document) describes each analytical approach in detail.3 Data: The speeches used in the study were delivered by al-Assad from Jan 2000 to Sept 2013; the past six years was sampled most densely. Additional Twitter feeds were analyzed to gauge his influence in the region. Analytical Approaches: Five separate methods were used to analyze the speeches: 1. Approach 1: Integrative Complexity (IC) analysis as developed by Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia) is a measure of the degree to which a source recognizes more than one aspect of an issue or more than one legitimate viewpoint on it (differentiation), and recognizes relationships among those aspects or viewpoints (integration). 2. Approach 2: Thematic Analysis based on methodologies developed by National Security Innovations, Inc. (NSI) and conducted by Indiana University – Purdue University, Fort Wayne (IPFW). It provides general predictions of which themes will precede conflict and which will emerge as a reaction to conflict, an assessment of the major narratives al-Assad draws on to persuade his audiences, and analyses of themes that emerge around specific events. 3. Approach 3: Automated Leadership Trait Analysis using ProfilerPlus and the Language Inventory and Word Count (LIWC) software (JHU-APL). The primary objectives were to examine (1) the cognitive complexity through means independent from the UBC method in Approach 1; and (2) al-Assad’s leadership traits using Hermann’s (2002) method of political profiling. Selections of English translations of al-Assad’s speeches were analyzed using two pieces of software: ProfilerPlus; and Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC). Automated text analyses ingest and analyze the whole speech not simply randomly selected sections. 4. Approach 4: Geopolitical Discourse Development Analysis. CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) analyzed the common corpus of 124 speeches by Bashir al-Assad from 2000 to present. They provided qualitative interpretations of major themes that emerged in al-Assad’s discourse over the course of the 13-year period studied 3 Part II contains detailed analyses of each study that contributed to this effort, supporting appendices and summary chapters. 2 This Document is Approved for Public Release 5. Approach 5: Analysis of Influential Arab Twitter Feeds. A team of analysts from Texas A&M University analyzed the twitter feeds of 195 influential Arabs in the Middle East, in each 24 hour period before and after al-Assad delivered a speech for the months of August and September, 2013. They also examined the relative influence of al-Assad and other regional players in the Arabic Twittersphere to determine the extent the regime is able to influence public opinion. Major Findings: The major findings of these studies include: al-Assad is capable of recognizing other viewpoints and evaluates them in a nuanced and context-dependent manner al-Assad values logical argumentation and empirical evidence al-Assad’s integrative complexity is relatively high, but might be lower before he takes decisive action or when under intense threat al-Assad’s reasoning is consistent with his Arab nationalist Ba’athist political ideology, and with a consistent opposition to Israel and Western domination; al- Assad sees Arab resistance and his leadership, or at least that of the Ba’ath party, as essential. Key Recommendations: We used the doctrinal 7-Step MISO process to characterize al- Assad as a target audience of one, and we absorbed the relevant components of our multi- method analyses into the Target Audience Analysis format. The main practical recommendations are: Avoid direct threats to the Syrian Ba’athist regime’s hold on power; Appeal to al-Assad’s relatively high baseline level of Cognitive Complexity (ability to see different sides of an issue, flexible decision-making, openness to information), pragmatism, and respect for Arab nationalism to broker a negotiated settlement; and Identify and exploit al-Assad’s dynamic levels of Integrative Complexity to assess his relative susceptibility, develop arguments and recommended psychological actions and/or refine assessment criteria at a specific point in time. Table 1: Summary of Key Recommendations, Supporting Analyses, Part II Location, and Confidence Level. Recommendation Supporting Analyses Part II Confi Location dence Avoid direct threats to Syrian Approach 2: al-Assad frequently appeals to conspiracies against 4.3.1, 4.3.3, High Ba’athist regime’s hold on power Syria and the Syrian Ba’athist regime; direct threats to this power 4.3.4, 4.3.6, reinforce this narrative to his constituents. 4.4.4, al-Assad expresses a sense of duty to lead Syria and defend its heritage against outside threats; his removal from power, if desired, is a position to which one would have to build. Immediate demands for his removal will fail, since they appear non-negotiable at this point. Approach 3: al-Assad’s task orientation (or motivation for 5.3.2 High seeking/retaining office) is 0.79 where 0.71 is considered high. He is therefore likely to resist any notions of him relinquishing power, particularly as he views his responsibility (much like that of his father) as seeing Syria through the current crisis. 3 This Document is Approved for Public Release Appeal to al-Assad’s relatively Approach 1: al-Assad’s baseline IC (from 2000-2007) was 2.4, 3.1 High high baseline level of Cognitive relatively high but within the range of Middle Eastern leaders Complexity (ability to see during politically calm periods: e.g., prior to the Gulf War, when the range was from 1.1 for King Hussein of Jordan to 2.9 for different sides of an issue, Iranian President A. Rafsanjani. al-Assad’s average IC from Jan flexible decision-making, 2008 – Sept 2013 was 1.9, and his yearly averages after the onset openness to information), of the Arab Spring were within 1.7 and 1.9. These scores are pragmatism, and respect for Arab somewhat high relative to other political leaders of the region, nationalism to broker a but within the range for Middle Eastern leaders during a crisis, negotiated settlement. such as Saddam Hussein’s IC during the Gulf Crisis, which ranged from 1.2 to 2.2. Approach 2: al- al-Assad makes frequent appeals to Arab 4.3.1, 4.3.3, High nationalism and Syrian Heritage, which are key values, consistent 4.3.4, 4.3.6, with his Ba’athist political ideology. 4.4.4 Approach 3: This used three measures of cognitive complexity: 5.3.1.1 Mode Firstly, Conceptual Complexity (a component of ProfilerPlus rate Leadership Trait Analysis). al-Assad’s PP_LTA_CC score was 0.66, 5.3.1.2 where above 0.62 is considered high. His high conceptual complexity score coupled with his low self-confidence suggest 5.3.1.3 openness to contextual information. Secondly, ProfilerPlus Cognitive Complexity (PPCC score, calculated separately by ProfilerPlus), al-Assad’s mean PPCC Score of 5.8 (on a scale of 1- 7) suggests a level approaching the transition from moderate to high differentiation and high differentiation. Thirdly, al-Assad’s use of “thinking” words (Cognitive Mechanism score calculated by LIWC) in his speeches showed relative stability over time (mean of 18.08 and a standard deviation of 2.61). In summary, al- Assad exhibited moderate to high cognitive complexity and did so throughout the period analyzed, supporting the baseline findings of Approach 1. Approach 4: al-Assad has historically portrayed Syria as 6.2.1, 6.2.5 High essential in the region, and currently depicts the US as a malicious force. Identify and exploit al-Assad’s Approach 1: The pattern of IC rising or remaining stable when a 3.3 High dynamic levels of Integrative problem first occurs and develops, and then declining with Complexity to assess his relative continued stress, has been observed in previous studies. In this susceptibility, develop arguments particular case, the decline in al-Assad’s IC could be associated and recommended psychological with a high enough level of stress to have affected his problem actions and/or refine assessment solving resources, or with al-Assad committing cognitively to a criteria at a specific point in time.