CHANGE IN THREAT STATUS OF SPECIES Biodiversity Species Core indicator 1. INDICATOR (a) Name: Change in threat status of species. (b) Brief Definition: This indicator uses an adaptation of the global World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List Index /and Sampled Red List Index methodology to show overall changes in threat status (i.e. relative projected extinction risk) of representative sets of species at the global level. It is also applicable at the national level for any country which has a national Red List, and which has fully assessed its species more than once over time. (c) Unit of Measurement: The number of species in each category of the IUCN Red List (Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered, Extinct in the Wild, Extinct), and the number of species changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in their conservation status. (d) Placement in the CSD Indicator Set: Biodiversity/Species. 2. POLICY RELEVANCE (a) Purpose: The indicator has the potential to illustrate the effectiveness of national, regional and global measures designed to conserve biological diversity and ensure its use is sustainable, including the measures implemented in fulfilment of obligations accepted under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and under the Millennium Development Goals). The Red List Index (RLI) is currently "ïn process" for adoption by the UN Statistics Division for the new BD indicator under MDG7, Target 9bis. (b) Relevance to Sustainable/Unsustainable Development (theme/sub-theme): The CBD recognises that biodiversity has its own intrinsic value and that biodiversity maintenance is essential for human life and sustainable development through the provisioning of ecosystem goods and services. Many biological resources, at gene, species and ecosystem level, are currently at risk of modification, damage or loss. (c) International Conventions and Agreements: The conservation of biological diversity and the sustainable use of its components are two of the three primary objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. This indicator is of particular relevance to several articles of the CBD, e.g., Article 6 - General measures for conservation and sustainable use; Article 7 - Identification and monitoring; and Article 10 - Sustainable use of components of biological diversity. This indicator is relevant to many other global agreements for which the maintenance of biological diversity is important, including: Convention on the Conservation of 242 Migratory Species of Wild Animals (Bonn); Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES); United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOSS); Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar); International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling. Related regional conventions and agreements include: Convention on the conservation of European wildlife and natural habitats (Berne); EU Habitats and Species Directive and the EU Birds Directive; Program for the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF); Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR); Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). (d) International Targets/Recommended Standards: The international community has committed “to achieve a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional, and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on earth by 2010”. This “2010 Target” was formally adopted by governments at the 6th Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2002, and endorsed later that year at the World Summit on Sustainable Development. The 2010 target, and the targets relating to the general objectives of the CBD, relate specifically to Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity but could also be used as a guide for non-Party states. The revised MDG monitoring framework, presented in 2007 to the General Assembly, includes the new target “Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss” under MDG 7 (Ensure environmental sustainability), in addition to the original target “Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources”. (e) Linkages to Other Indicators: The global IUCN Red List Index and Sampled Red List Index are part of the suite of indicators measuring progress towards the CBD’s target to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, which are being implemented by the members of the 2010 Biodiversity Indicators Partnership (2010BIP; www.twentyten.net). It refers to the CBD 2010 indicator on “Change in status of threatened species”, and comes under the headline indicator “Status and trends of the components of biodiversity”. 3. METHODOLOGICAL DESCRIPTION (a) Underlying Definitions and Concepts: Threatened species: A threatened species is one that is listed under the IUCN Red List Categories as Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically Endangered (i.e., species that are facing a high, very high or extremely high risk of extinction in the wild). Increasing numbers of threatened species represent actual or potential declines in biodiversity. Decreasing numbers of threatened species following management interventions is strongly indicative of successful conservation measures. ‘The IUCN Red List’: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species ™ is widely recognised as the most authoritative and objective system for classifying species by their risk of 243 extinction. Species are included in the following categories according to a range of data regarding their abundance, populations, ecology, and the threats they face, among others: Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered, Extinct in the Wild, Extinct, or Data Deficient. The 2006 release of the global IUCN Red List of Threatened Species ™ included assessments for 40,168 species, of which more than 16,118 are threatened with extinction. The assessment includes species from a broad range of taxonomic groups including vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and fungi. The small number of groups that have been comprehensively assessed once include birds, mammals, amphibians, and gymnosperms (primarily conifers and cycads). So far only birds have been comprehensively assessed more than once. Mammals will be have also been comprehensively assessed for the second time by 2008 and ‘back-casting’ is being carried out on the amphibians so they can be added as well. The IUCN SRLI is also going to allow for appropriate samples of under-assessed taxonomic groups to be included – inverts, plants, reptiles, fish, corals, etc. The data in the IUCN Red List, and used in the calculation of the RLI, and the SRLI is collected by members of the IUCN SSC Specialist Group network, Red List partners BirdLife International, NatureServe, and the Zoological Society of London as well as several botanical institutions and a number of global assessment projects (for mammals, amphibians, reptiles, freshwater and marine taxa). They are then reviewed by the appropriate Red List Authority and entered into the IUCN Red List database, which is uploaded annually to www.iucnredlist.org. There are strict data standards and guidelines for using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria, as described by the Red List Standards and Petitions Working Group (2006; see references). (b) Measurement Methods: The best known and most accepted methodology for assessing trends in the status of threatened species at a global level is the IUCN Red List Index RLI. The method for calculating the IUCN RLI has been published in detail by Butchart et al (2004, 2005), with revisions to the methodology published in 2007. The RLI is based on the number of species in each Red List Category, and the number moving between categories in different assessments owing to genuine improvements and deterioration in status only (i.e. category changes owing to revised taxonomy or improved knowledge are excluded). In the revised version of the methodology, the RLI value can range from 1 (when all species are categorised as Least Concern) to 0 (when all species are categorised as Extinct). An intermediate value indicates how far the set of species has moved overall towards extinction. Thus the RLI allows comparisons between sets of species in both their overall level of extinction risk (i.e. how threatened they are on average), and in the rate at which this changes over time. An upward trend means that the situation is improving and that expected rate of species extinctions is abating (i.e. the rate of biodiversity loss is decreasing), and a horizontal line means that the expected rate of species extinctions is remaining the same, although in each of these cases it does not mean that biodiversity loss has stopped. Hence, to show that the target of significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss may have been met, an upward RLI trend is 244 needed at the very least. A RLI value of 1.0 would show that biodiversity loss had been halted. Further details of the calculation methodology and formula are given in Butchart et al (2004, 2005, 2007). The indicator can be calculated for any taxonomic group for which Red List assessments have been carried out on all species at least twice. To date a IUCN Red List Index (RLI) has been developed for all bird species for 1988-2004