Business Insights Update on the Packaged Food & Beverage Markets in Mexico May 2016 Mexican Economy Overview Mexico’s authorities recently revealed that GDP grew 2.5% in 2015. In a year full of economic and financial turmoil mainly influenced by China’s decreased growth and considerable drop in oil and commodity prices, the fact that Mexico managed to grow at this pace indicates the country holds solid macroeconomic fundamentals especially when compared to similar emerging markets economies such as other Latin American peers. Also, with Brazil in deep economic trouble, Mexico should see its position among emerging countries rise in Latin America which should reflect in an increase in foreign and local investments due a to a solid economy, political stability and positive middle to long term growth prospects. The consumer market in Mexico has responded well to the actual economic challenging environment by remaining budget cautions. There is a positive outlook for the Mexican consumer, despite a modest deceleration in consumer spending in early 2016 as rising inflation affects consumer spending. Strong labor market dynamics, favorable demographics and low price pressures support this strong outlook. In particular, consumer spending growth will boot the emergence of an upper-middle class, creating robust premiumization opportunities. Packaged Food Industry Performance in Mexico Beverage Industry Performance in Mexico Packaged food sales value recovered in 2015 after a deceleration in 2014 Soft drinks companies in 2015 fought to maintain their sales by changing caused by an increase in price, which included the IEPS tax on high-calorie formulas, launching additional “light” products with sugar substitutes, food. Packaged food is expected to recover over the next 5 years due to modifying packaging and fortifying their beverages to attract more health- sociodemographic and economic changes such as a growing middle class, conscious consumers. As a result, the categories most heavily affected by double-income households and urbanization and consumer spending. the IEPS tax on high calorie drinks, such as carbonates and juice, were able to recover in 2015. Historical & Forecast Sales Historical & Forecast Sales $885 $909 $629 $650 $841 $863 $609 $802 $821 $574 $591 $762 $559 $724 $534 $490 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Mexico Packaged Food Industry by Category Mexico Beverage Industry by Category The packaged food industry is comprised by producers of baked goods, The soft drinks industry is comprised by bottlers of carbonates, water, juice, dairy products, processed meats, confectionary products, among other among other categories. Carbonates is the leading category in this industry categories. In 2015, baked goods and dairy products represented slightly with a 58% market share, nevertheless, it is facing strong pressure due to more than half of the market share in this industry. more health conscious consumers and tax increases on the category. Sales by Category Sales by Category 2015 Sales: MXN $802 billion 2015 Sales: MXN $559 billion Other 12% Bottled Water Baked Goods 22% Oils & Fats 30% 4% Sw eet & Sour Snacks 6% Biscuits & Snack Bars Juice 6% Carbonates 11% Condiments 58% 6% Dairy Processed Meats & 22% Other Seafoods 6% 6% Confectionery Sports and Energy Drinks 8% 3% Leading Players in the Packaged Food Industry in Mexico Leading Players in the Beverage Industry in Mexico The packaged food industry is led by a combination of domestic players The beverage industry is led by Coca Cola with almost one third of the (Bimbo, Lala, Sigma, Alpura, Herdez) and foreign multinationals (Pepsico, market share. Coca Cola is bottled in Mexico by two major bottling Nestle, Unilever). Bimbo is the leader in the category with 12% of the market companies (Arca Continental and Coca Cola FEMSA) and other regional share in 2015. bottling companies. Sales by Company Sales by Brand 2015 Sales: MXN $802 billion 2015 Sales: MXN $559 billion Grupo Bimbo 12% PepsiCo Coca Cola, 27% 6% Grupo Lala 5% Nestle 4% Sigma Alimentos 3% Other, 60% Others Alpura Danone, 7% 3% 63% Herdez 2% Unilever PepsiCo, 7% 2% Source: Euromonitor Public Companies Analysis – Packaged Food & Beverage in Mexico Public Companies Analysis The following section presents key financial and market value information for public companies in the packaged food and beverage industries trading in the Mexico Stock Exchange (“BMV”). This report also includes information for public leading companies in packaged food and beverage industries trading in different stock exchanges across the world. Public Comparable Companies – Mexico Food Products Companies Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 05/04/2016 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company Company Country 05/04/2016 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value EV / EV / 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA Sales Industrias Bachoco S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $51.76 $2,683 12.9% $2,588 $1,943 4.7x 10.6x 4.9x 5.2x 4.2x 5.6x 0.7x Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $1.98 $564 10.1% $622 $762 10.1x 11.0x 15.6x 14.9x 13.5x 13.8x 1.4x Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $2.79 $12,722 11.5% $13,133 $17,117 10.2x 11.9x 13.3x 12.0x 12.0x 12.0x 1.4x Gruma S.A.B. de CV MEX $15.76 $3,383 15.6% $6,822 $7,488 5.8x 6.8x 8.0x 10.3x 12.7x 14.6x 2.3x Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $2.21 $949 17.7% $954 $1,681 7.0x 8.9x 12.7x 11.7x 9.6x 8.9x 1.8x Grupo Industrial Maseca, SAB de CV MEX $1.29 $921 18.5% $1,188 $1,172 7.4x 7.0x 7.7x 7.2x 7.0x 7.1x 1.3x Mean 7.5x 9.4x 10.4x 10.2x 9.8x 10.3x 1.5x Median 7.2x 9.8x 10.4x 11.0x 10.8x 10.4x 1.4x Historic TEV / EBITDA Multiples - Mexico Food Products Companies 18.0x 15.0x 12.0x Average: 9.63x 9.0x 6.0x 3.0x Industrias Bachoco S.A.B. de C.V. Grupo Bafar S.A.B. de C.V. Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. Gruma S.A.B. de CV Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. Grupo Industrial Maseca, SAB de CV Public Comparable Companies – Mexico Beverage Companies Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 05/04/2016 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company Company Country 05/04/2016 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value EV / EV / 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA Sales Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $6.60 $4,438 21.9% $11,053 $13,837 13.3x 14.0x 13.5x 11.7x 12.0x 14.4x 3.2x Organización Cultiba, S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $1.31 $2,159 9.5% $937 $1,523 NM NM 14.0x 10.9x 15.2x 8.1x 0.7x Coca-Cola FEMSA S.A.B de C.V. MEX $81.19 $8,844 19.2% $16,830 $20,007 9.3x 12.6x 14.3x 11.2x 11.1x 11.8x 2.3x Grupo Lala, S.A.B. de C.V. MEX $2.59 $2,797 14.1% $6,397 $5,892 0.0x 0.0x 14.8x 12.9x 13.3x 15.3x 2.2x Mean 7.5x 8.9x 14.1x 11.7x 12.9x 12.4x 2.1x Median 9.3x 12.6x 14.2x 11.4x 12.6x 13.1x 2.2x Historic TEV / EBITDA Multiples – Mexico Beverage Companies 18.0x 13.0x Average: 12.76x 8.0x 3.0x Arca Continental, S.A.B. de C.V. Coca-Cola FEMSA S.A.B de C.V. Grupo Lala, S.A.B. de C.V. Source: Capital IQ NM = Not Meaningful International Public Companies Analysis – Dairy Products Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 05/04/2016 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company Company Country 05/04/2016 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value EV / EV / 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA Sales Fonterra Co-Operative Group Ltd. NZL $3.99 $11,604 9.0% $6,393 $11,487 NM 10.2x 10.1x 13.2x 16.0x 10.0x 0.9x Dean Foods Company USA $17.17 $8,122 4.9% $1,575 $2,357 8.1x 8.3x 6.4x 8.0x 9.8x 5.9x 0.3x Parmalat SpA ITA $2.75 $6,997 7.1% $5,055 $4,741 7.2x 4.0x 7.3x 8.5x 8.5x 9.0x 0.6x Dairy Crest Group plc GBR $8.65 $1,995 5.2% $1,213 $1,572 6.0x 5.5x 6.9x 9.3x 12.8x 16.2x 0.8x Danone FRA $69.65 $24,341 16.7% $42,517 $51,739 11.1x 10.7x 10.9x 11.5x 13.2x 11.9x 2.0x Saputo Inc. CAD $30.82 $7,763 10.1% $12,099 $13,383 11.3x 10.8x 12.4x 13.6x 13.7x 16.1x 1.6x Mean 8.7x 8.3x 9.0x 10.7x 12.3x 11.5x 1.1x Median 8.1x 9.3x 8.7x 10.4x 13.0x 10.9x 0.9x International Public Companies Analysis – Soft Drinks Annual Avg. EV / EBITDA 05/04/2016 Price Revenue EBITDA Mkt. Cap Enterprise Company Company Country 05/04/2016 US$ MM Margin US$ MM Value EV / EV / 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA Sales Embotelladora Andina S.A. CHL $3.19 $2,650 16.2% $2,842 $3,754 8.8x 11.1x 12.6x 9.7x 8.3x 8.4x 1.3x Pepsico, Inc.