GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA Ministry of Finance NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF BERMUDA 2 0 0 8 GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA Ministry of Finance NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF BERMUDA 2008 Published by: Government of Bermuda Ministry of Finance February 2009 Government Administration Building 30 Parliament Street Hamilton HM 12 Bermuda Design: Department of Communication and Information Printed by: The Bermuda Press Ltd Contents Page I. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1 II. THE BERMUDA ECONOMY IN 2008 2 Personal Consumption and the Retail Sector 2 Capital Formation and the Construction Industry 3 External Demand 3 International Business 4 Tourism 4 Employment 5 Inflation in Bermuda 6 Balance of Payments 8 Interest Rates in Bermuda 8 III. 2009 GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 9 IV. 2009 OUTLOOK FOR BERMUDA 9 V. APPENDIX 11 A Detailed Look at the U.S. Economy and the Obama Stimulus Package 11 VI. ANALYTICAL NOTE 15 VII. LIST OF TABLES 16 I. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2007 2007 is the most recent year for which official GDP data have sector. Contributions to this sector also emanate from the been compiled for Bermuda. In 2007, the Bermuda economy trading operations of security and commodity brokerage, expanded 9.4 per cent based on current market prices. shipping, consultancy and other forms of international Nominal GDP was reported to be over $5.8 billion reflecting business activity. This sector is one of the main reasons for an increase of $503.1 million over the revised 2006 estimate of the growth in the economy. The ever increasing significance $5.3 billion. When adjusted for inflation, the level of economic of international business to Bermuda’s economy is reflected activity or real GDP increased by 4.6 per cent. This growth in the fact that this sector’s share of GDP has grown from rate remained above the five year average (2003-2007) of 19.5 per cent to 27.2 per cent over the last five years. 4.4 per cent. This result exceeded the Ministry of Finance’s The financial intermediation sector was the second largest forecast of real growth in the range of 2.5 per cent to 3.0. contributor to Bermuda’s economy accounting for $823.0 The greater than expected expansion in the economy can million in output. This represents 14.1 per cent of total be partially attributed to the addition of approximately 1,700 GDP expanding by 11.3 per cent over 2006. This growth newly registered international businesses during the year. was associated with increased licensing, supervisory and Figure 1 incorporation fees collected from international business entities and higher credit demand. BERMUDA 4,500,400 6.0 The real estate and rental sector was the third largest 4,000,400 contributor to GDP. This sector accounted for $821.7 million 5.0 in output or 14.0 per cent of total GDP. Growth in this sector 3,500,400 was negative 0.4 per cent, far below the five-year average 3,000,400 4.0 of 6.6 per cent. An excess supply of condominiums helped 2,500,400 3.0 to level prices in the real estate sector from the 2006 level. 2,000,400 The high cost of maintaining rental properties coupled with 1,500,400 2.0 % CHANGE $'000 1996 Prices depreciation, resulted in the slight decline in value added for 1,000,400 1.0 this sector. 500,400 The business activities sector provides professional and 400 0.0 other services to the international business sector and benefited from increased demand for these services in % CHANGE GDP AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES 2007. The sector contributed $550.8 million to the growth of The industry analysis of GDP provides useful information the economy representing 9.4 per cent of GDP. Output in this concerning the output of the 15 sectors of the Bermuda sector advanced 9.0 per cent economy. Table 14 provides this information in constant The wholesale, retail trade and repair services sector dollars while Table 15 presents it in current market prices. represented 7.2 per cent of GDP in 2007 with an output level Highlights of the larger industry sectors are summarized of $424 million. This sector posted a gain of 6.1 per cent when below. compared to 2006. Growth was driven mainly by stores selling In current market dollars, international business contributed apparel, food and household appliances. Domestic retail the greatest amount to the expansion of the Bermuda sales and overseas spending grew at similar rates of 4.7 per economy in 2007. This sector provided $1,593.0 million in cent and 4.9 per cent respectively. total output which represents 27.2 per cent of total GDP or a The provision of education, health and social services has 22.4 per cent increase compared to 2006. Value added from maintained its significant contribution to the level of GDP in this industry contributed to more than half of the growth Bermuda. This sector represents the sixth largest contributor in Bermuda which accounted for 58.0 per cent of the total to GDP at 6.0 per cent of the total. The 2007 contribution of $353.8 increase in GDP for 2007. Companies in the insurance and million which increased by 8.0 per cent, was led by increased reinsurance industry are the biggest contributors to this demand for both public and private health services. NATIONAL ECONOMIC REPORT OF BERMUDA 2008 The construction and Quarrying sector increased by 4.7 While consumer expenditure estimates are not available per cent and accounted for $322.5 million in output for 2007. for 2008, the Retail Sales Index (RSI) for the January to Construction activity for the year was focused primarily November 2008 period provides insight into the expenditure on building installation and completion work from projects trends of consumers in Bermuda’s retail stores. Other than that neared closure at the end of 2006. Both the private and the relatively strong performance in the months of February public sector recorded increased building activity compared and April, the RSI shows that retail sales have been generally to 2006. soft during 2008. After removing the effect of inflation, there were many months where retail sales volume declined vis- à-vis the same month in the previous year. Concern of the II. THE BERMUDA ECONOMY IN 2008 ongoing global economic slowdown continued to impact Based on the available information at the time of printing, local consumer spending. In 2008, sales volume fell for nine Ministry of Finance estimates that Bermuda’s GDP expanded of the eleven months of measured sales activity. in real terms in the range of 2.0 to 2.5 per cent in 2008. At the time of writing, gross turnover stood at $1,026.8 million Personal Consumption and the Retail Sector which represents a modest 2.1 per cent increase over the same period in 2007. The Office of the Tax Commissioner estimated that employment income rose by 10.0 per cent for the first three All Sectors in the RSI recorded increased sales levels for quarters of 2008 compared to the same period in 2007. Rising the reporting period of January to November 2008, apart incomes tend to result in rising consumption which provides from the building material stores, motor vehicle stores and a positive contribution to GDP. For the 12 month period ending apparel stores. September 2008, total employment income was $3.04 billion, The service stations sector was the strongest performing $311 million or 11 per cent higher than the 12 month period sector within the RSI. The retail sales of this sector grew ending September 2007. by 10.3 per cent in 2008. The gain in sales was the result Figure 2 of high fuel costs in the first three quarters of 2008. In the fourth quarter the increased sales levels began to weaken COMPONENTS OF PERSONAL CONSUMPTION FOR THE YEAR 2007 with November exhibiting negatives sales due to falling fuel Government transfers 7% prices. Miscellaneous 2% NPO's Grocery store retailers had the next highest year over year 4% Food & non-alcoholic Financial Services beverages percentage increase in retail sales. This sector has made 1% 13% Life Insurance & Pension consistent monthly gains since September 2002 which Funds Alcohol & tobacco 0% 2% helped the food stores sector record increased sales of 7.7 Entertainment & recreation 3% per cent year over year. The 2008 increases were the result Health & personal care 4% of reported hikes in the price of food throughout the year. Foreign travel Liquor Stores and All other store types also posted positive 5% sales levels in 2008. Liquor stores recorded year over year Housing Education 30% sales increases of 2.0 per cent. The steady increase in 4% alcohol sales was responsible for the positive year in this Transportation sector. 8% Clothing, accessories All other store types, which include items such as furniture, Household goods Fuel & power & footwear & services 2% 3% 12% appliances, electronics and pharmaceuticals, increased sales by 0.9 per cent in 2008. This sector’s marginal sales The most recent estimates by the Department of Statistics gain arose largely due to increased spending on the above for household final consumption are for the year 2007. The mentioned items. total household final consumption for that year was $2.71 The number of residents traveling abroad decreased in the billion which represented an increase of 4.4 per cent over first three quarters of 2008 compared to 2007 from 77,763 2006. This increase is above the 2007 annual inflation rate of to 66,929 representing a 13.9 per cent decline. During that 3.8 per cent, which indicates that the volume of goods and time period overseas purchases declared by residents services purchased in Bermuda increased during that year.