spotlight europe # 2009/01 – January 2009 Kosovo 2009: Uncertain Future Johanna Deimel and Armando García Schmidt The status of Kosovo continues to controversial. Pristina and Belgrade are now even more at loggerheads than they were before the Kosovar Decla- ration of Independence in February 2008. Diverging interests in the EU and the United Nations have paralyzed the work of the international community. It is clear that the EU needs a new policy with which to cre- ate stability and make for clarity. Pristina must show some responsibility if it does not wish to jeopardize the future of Kosovo. Only a few months after the Declaration of I Independence the young state of Kosovo finds itself bogged down in a fundamental crisis in which the whole issue of the sov- What has happened since ereignty of the country is at stake. In con- the Declaration of trast to what the proponents of independ- ence had planned, during the past twelve Independence? # 2009/01 months the international community has not managed to come up with a new legal The Kosovo Declaration of Independence framework for the missions on the ground. in February 2008 was preceded by lengthy The international actors continue to be and nerve-racking negotiations. The proc- bound by Security Resolution 1244 (UN- ess was set in motion by the Norwegian SCR 1244) from the year 1999. This is re- diplomat Kai Eide, who in his report to the pudiated by the young state with its claim UN Secretary General in October 2005 in- to sovereignty and the European states dicated that it was imperative to resolve which have recognized Kosovo. The result the status question. of all this is a confused state of affairs which hinders the emergence of positive The former Finnish president Martti Ahti- developments and exacerbates conflicts. saari was entrusted with the task of work- spotlight europe ing out a compromise with Serbian and puted issues, the negotiations and the ensuing endeavours of the troika (EU, Russia, U.S.) ended inconclusively at the end of 2007. Serbia exercised its veto rights against every step which might have led to the resolution of the status question and ultimately to inde- pendence. At the same time the political process, once begun, could no longer be stopped. Openly supported by the U.S. and expecting to obtain unanimous ap- proval from the EU, Pristina declared itself independent on 17 February 2008. On 15 June the first constitution of the new state entered into force. Both the Declaration of Independence and the constitution of the Republic of Kosovo refer to the Ahtisaari plan and its im- plementation. Before the Declaration of Independence 2 the EU had given the impression of be- Page ing united on the issue. As late as 4 February 2008 the 27 EU member states emphasized that they were will- ing to assume a leading role if Kosovo agreed to implement the Ahtisaari plan. It was unanimously agreed to despatch the EULEX rule of law mission and an EU special representative for Kosovo. Yet since the Kosovar Declaration of In- dependence the EU is no longer in Kosovo 2009: Uncertain Future Future Uncertain 2009: Kosovo agreement on the issue. Whereas 53 UN states, including the neighbouring states of Albania, Croatia, Macedonia and Montenegro, have recognized Kos- ovo, five EU states have still not done so–Greece, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Cyprus. They refuse to recognize # 2009/01 Kosovo for reasons associated with do- mestic policy issues and international Kosovar representatives. In March 2007 legal reservations. Ahtisaari presented a plan which contains fundamental guarantees for the Serbian The international community also remains minority in Kosovo and envisages condi- divided on the issue. The expected wave of tional independence for Kosovo under in- recognition from other regions, including ternational supervision. the Islamic and Latin American countries, has hitherto failed to materialize. Russia, Although the Ahtisaari package is the net which until the middle of 2006 still sup- result of lengthy negotiations and contains ported the views of the Balkans Contact detailed compromises with regard to dis- Group (Germany, France, the United King- spotlight europe dom, Italy, U.S., and Russia) on the nego- bids Serbian troop movements in Kosovo tiations under Ahtisaari, is using Kosovo and in the border areas adjoining the for- to further its global political ambitions. mer Serbian province. Despite the fact that it has counteracted its own arguments based on international In practice Serbia continues to resist the law by its recognition of South Ossetia and new realities. It simply refused to cooper- Abkhasia, in the United Nations Security ate with the European EULEX rule of law Council Moscow has blocked all attempts mission and the International Civilian Of- to re-order the legal framework for the in- fice (ICO), which were set up on the basis ternational presence in Kosovo. of the Ahtisaari plans after the Declaration of Independence. Belgrade recognizes only II the United Nations mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), which operates on the basis of UNSCR 1244. Status revisited: Belgrade has the upper hand Since June 2008 UN Secretary General Ban has been trying to find a way out of this With the backing of Moscow Belgrade is impasse. He attempted to obtain Bel- pursuing a policy aimed at bringing the grade’s support for the reconfiguration of sluggish recognition process to a complete UNMIK and the deployment of EULEX, and standstill and once again making the issue put forward six points on which Belgrade 3 of the status of Kosovo the subject of nego- should in future continue to have a say. Page tiations. Furthermore, the Serbian gov- ernment has pulled off a stroke of diplomatic genius. At the UN General Assembly on 8 October 2008 77 states, including Mon- tenegro, supported the Serbian resolution requesting the Inter- national Court of Justice at The Hague to assess the legality of Kosovo 2009: Uncertain Future Future Uncertain 2009: Kosovo Kosovo’s Declaration of Inde- pendence. Six countries, includ- ing the U.S., voted against the resolution, and 74 abstained (including the neighbouring states of Bosnia, Croatia and Macedonia). The EU member # 2009/01 states disguised their differ- ences by abstaining. The ruling of the Court is not binding. The proposals suggested that in the Ser- However, if The Hague were to decide in bian enclaves and in the north of Kosovo favour of Belgrade, states which have al- matters relating to customs, police, jus- ready recognized Kosovo would be in deep tice, transport, telecommunications, and trouble. religious and cultural heritage would con- tinue to be dealt with under the aegis of Belgrade embarked on another attempt to UNSCR 1244, whereas EULEX would oper- turn back the clock at the end of Novem- ate under the umbrella of the United Na- ber, when President Tadic called into tions, that is, of UNMIK. question the Kumanovo Treaty, which for- spotlight europe Pristina did not participate in the negotia- the Security Council gave its assent to the tions between Belgrade, New York and deployment of EULEX within the frame- Brussels. It was easy to understand why work of UNSCR 1244 and under the um- the Kosovar leader- ship should have rejected the results with which it was confronted. Kosovo was in a quandary. Acceptance of the six-point plan would have been tantamount to un- dermining its sov- ereignty. Its inter- nationally super- vised independ- ence, which is based on the Ahti- saari package and enshrined in the 4 constitution, would Page have seemed totally absurd. However, if it rejects the six- point plan, the deployment of EULEX will brella of UNMIK, which thus continues in be endangered and relations to the EU and existence. The transfer of the full mandate the United Nations strained to the limits. to EULEX and the withdrawal of UNMIK are now dependent on Belgrade. III The police in areas mainly inhabited by Serbs will continue to be under the super- Status Neutral: OSCE and vision of UNMIK structures and is thus Kosovo 2009: Uncertain Future Future Uncertain 2009: Kosovo beyond the control of Pristina. The same is UNMIK true of customs. Here again UNMIK will The UN administration found itself in a supervise the border crossings between difficult position after the Declaration of northern Kosovo and Serbia, and not the Independence, and especially after the en- government of Kosovo. In northern Mi- try into force of the constitution. The di- trovica the judiciary will remain in the lemma was due to the fact that UNSCR hands of UNMIK for up to 60 days until # 2009/01 1244, on which the mandate of UNMIK is local judges and state prosecutors working based, continued to be in existence, on the basis of UNSCR 1244, which re- whereas there is no mention of UNMIK in mains in force, and not the Kosovar consti- the Kosovar constitution. The intention tution, will start their work. had been that UNMIK would operate in Kosovo only until EULEX had become fully The OSCE will also remain. In Ban’s report operative. to the Security Council it is in fact as- signed a key role. Its members–and in this Yet things were about to turn out differ- they resemble the EU–do not agree with ently. On 26 November 2008, after Bel- regard to the status question. Yet the grade, Brussels and Ban Ki-Moon had OSCE has only a political and consultative reached agreement on the six-point plan, mandate, and not an internationally bind- spotlight europe ing one. Furthermore, the organization has Only specialists make a distinction be- to defer to its member states Russia and tween ICO and EULEX, and the status of Serbia–and is thus status-neutral.