CLIMATE CHANGE 17 CLIMATE CHANGE: The Last Straw for Communities at Risk? Much has been said about the potential effects human induced climate change will have on Southern Africa, its biodiversity, its water resources, the economy of the region and the health of its people. However, this phenomenon is only one stressor in the lives of the area’s most vulnerable communities, and should not be viewed in isolation, experts warn. Lani Holtzhausen reports. ost scientists agree that undermine global poverty alleviation exactly what will happen to the climate change is happen- efforts, and have severe implications region as a result of climate change,” Ming, and will continue to hap- for food security, clean water, energy reports Prof Bruce Hewitson of the pen in the foreseeable future even if supply, environmental health and Climate Systems Analysis Group at the global gas emissions responsible human settlements. the University of Cape Town. The for this phenomenon are curtailed other universities who participated in significantly in the short to medium Research funded by the Water this collaboration were the universi- term. According to South Africa’s Research Commission (WRC) has ties of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Pretoria National Climate Change Response confirmed this, with credible regional and Witwatersrand (Wits). Strategy, approved by Cabinet in projections made available using the September 2004, there is now more latest general circulation models, as HIGHER TEMPERATURES, confidence than ever before that well as regional climate models and LOWER RAINFALL global climate change is a threat to empirical downscaling techniques. sustainable development, especially “This is the closest we have ever The country as a whole is projected in developing countries. It could come in South Africa in projecting to become warmer, with the highest The Water Wheel January/February 2006 18 CLIMATE CHANGE increases in the interior. Increases beating 1998 as the warmest year yet “Increases in temperature in temperature is already being ex- recorded. Higher temperatures mean is already being experi- perienced, with 2005 expected to more evaporation, which is projected become the warmest year on record, to increase by 10% to 20%. enced, with 2005 expected to become the warmest year on record, beating 1998 as the warmest year yet recorded.” This is not great news for a country such as South Africa which already has a high-risk hydroclimatic environ- ment, with low rainfall to runoff conversion and a high inter-annual variability of climate. According to Prof Roland Schulze of KZN Univer- sity this implies increased evapora- tion and water losses from dams and increased irrigation demand as soils will dry out more often. “The impact of climate change on the water sec- tor might be felt on the water sector sooner than we think. We could see a significant reduction in runoff in Left: Europe experienced a historic Courtesy of NASA Earth Observatory heatwave in 2003. Here the daytime land surface temperatures of 2003 compared to the previous three years are shown. COULD SA FARMERS SUE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE? n the not too distant future, the example of the 2003 European influence on climate has affected the Ia group of local farmers lose heat wave which led to more than risk of an extreme weather event.” their maize crops due to a severe US$10-billion of uninsured damages But who will be the defendants? drought. They go on to sue a and between 22 000 and 35 000 Allen explained that about 80% of number of international fossil fuel heat-related deaths. the present greenhouse as emis- companies for damages caused by sions emanated from the products human-induced global warming. According to Allen, the contribution sold by no more than 20 identifiable of past greenhouse gas emissions to companies. Improbable? Perhaps not, main- some present climate risks, includ- tains Myles Allen of the Department ing recurring droughts in southern Over the coming decade, both of Physics at Oxford University. Africa, may already exceed 50% the cost and inevitability of climate Speaking via telephone link at the – the threshold for civil tort actions. change will become clearer, fuel- National Climate Change Confer- By 2030 more than 50% of anthropo- ling demands for compensation ence in October last year, he said genic greenhouse gas loading will be for floods and droughts, heat wave that civil liability could be another due to post 1990 emissions. damages and deaths, threats to vehicle for redistributing the costs of water supplies, coastal erosion and climate change and reducing emis- “Plaintiffs must show that, more hurricanes, he maintained. “The risk, sions. “There is increasingly strong probably than not, their individual even if remote, of a successful class- evidence for the human influence injuries were caused by the risk factor action damages suit would have far on global and regional temperature in question, as opposed to any other more impact than any conceivable changes,” he told delegates, citing cause. So we must ask how human follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol.” The Water Wheel January/February 2006 CLIMATE CHANGE 19 certain areas in the west of the coun- try by as early as 2015,” he says. WHAT THEY SAY ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE At the same time the eastern half of rom improved disaster management South Africa, especially the escarp- “Fand emergency response planning to ment and eastward is likely to the decisions we make about the materials become wetter, with more rainy days to build our houses, climate change will re- and increases in rainfall intensity, quire adaptation in almost all spheres of life.” which have implications for, for – Minister of Environmental Affairs & example, soil erosion and flooding. Tourism, Marthinus van Schalkwyk On the positive side, this might result in greater groundwater recharge. The interior regions to the west of e run the risk that our grandchildren the eastern escarpment show more “Wand great grandchildren may not be able to enjoy the visual splendour ambiguous changes in rainfall, with of the fynbos of the Western Cape or the daisies of Namaqualand.” some parts likely to experience slight – Minister of Minerals & Energy, Lindiwe Hendricks increases and other slight decreases. Worrying, however, is that most winter much neglected aspect of climate months in the Western Cape show a “A change understanding is the role that drying trend. This is consistent with the continuing and pervasive poverty that the suggestions that the region will afflicts more than a third of the people on experience weaker frontal systems, this planet has on climate change, and whose core will be further south than the impacts that climate change will in at present. There are also sugges- turn have on the most marginalised in the tions across the country of increased global context.” – Minister of Science & inter-annual variability. This means Technology Mosibudi Mangena we are likely to see more floods and droughts, with prolonged dry spells being followed by intense storms. limate change is a serious risk to poverty reduction and threatens to “Cundo decades of development effects.” – Minister of Agriculture, All aspects of the water sector will be Thoko Didiza affected, including water supply, the incidence of waterborne diseases, and even the Ecological Reserve. e have learned to live with the fact that our water resources are scarce South Africa might even have to re- “Wand highly variable in space and negotiate its international water agree- time. Now we will have to learn to adapt to ments with its neighbours with whom a climate that is already changing and will it shares 70% of its water resources. continue to change – possible for 100 years – irrespective of how successful we are in VULNERABLE reducing emissions of greenhouse gases into COMMUNITIES the atmosphere.” – Minister of Water Affairs & Forestry, Buyelwa Sonjica But climate change is not only about changes in the earth system, it is also about the impact of these changes water resources. We need a multi- scenario and require an effective on vulnerable communities. Accord- faceted approach to climate change, response. In communities where ing to Prof Coleen Vogel, Professor: focusing particularly on the human access to clean water is already a BMW Chair in Sustainability at Wits, dimension of this phenomenon.” problem, a slight decrease in rainfall research into climate change has has an amplified effect, for example. been largely one dimensional to It is believed that the impacts on both So climate change will become an- date. “For many, the focus thus far rural and urban communities, particu- other stress that cities have to deal has been on the projected impacts larly in the absence of effective risk- with, along with growing informal of climate change, for example, on reduction strategies, are expected to settlements, pollution, poverty, and the environment, human health, and be significant in a changing climate health issues, to name but a few. The Water Wheel January/February 2006 20 CLIMATE CHANGE Drier conditions exacerbated by climate change could see the Cape West Coast and Namaqualand’s floral splendour become a rare occurrence. “The most pressing challenge is larger-scale agricultural activities. access to resources, how well they to strengthen the social, economic The area is also characterised by are linked to development activities and environmental resilience of the high levels of poverty and other and, more critically, how those activi- poorest and most vulnerable against stresses, including HIV/AIDS, malaria ties are institutionalised. climate change and variability,” notes and cholera. Prof Vogel. In Müden, which is already prone “The impact of climate to droughts and flooding, research COMMUNITIES IN PERIL showed rather than climate change change on the water sector being the key and overarching The WRC research emphasised this might be felt on the ‘driving’ or ‘stress’ factor, there were with two case studies undertaken on several multiple stressors that the vulnerability of communities to water sector sooner than enhanced vulnerability and con- climate change in the Thukela catch- we think.