Politics: US elections II Limping towards the Convention Bounce Bush’s incumbent bonus in the graph shows the extent to which the portrayal of candidates on ABC, NBC and CBS correlates media is turning into a problem for with voting intentions. Since the end of the pri- John F. Kerry maries, the networks have been portraying Kerry much more positively than the President. After a n election campaigns, challengers generally certain time lag, the variations in media portrayal I have a much harder time than incumbents were clearly refl ected by voting preferences – to a to make it onto the media agenda and into pub- slightly different degree for each candidate, how- lic awareness. In the US election campaign, the ever. John Kerry seemed to need a long-term and party convention with its centerpiece, the offi cial far more positive media echo than President Bush nomination of the presidential candidate, is con- in order to score points with voters. If the media’s sidered to be one of the greatest opportunities for assessment of the candidates turns only slightly the challenger to create the necessary awareness in favor of the President, John Kerry starts losing through the media. Still, two weeks before this ground in opinion polls. One obvious explanation year’s Democratic convention, ABC, NBC and for this asymmetry is the Senator’s lack of a clear CBS announced that they were not planning on media profi le. As a challenger, Kerry has to fi ght covering the party convention for more than one against President Bush’s incumbent bonus: Voters hour each day of the three days of the event. For have had the opportunity of getting to know him John Forbes Kerry, this reduced media attention during his four-year presidency, while John Kerry means a loss of a much-needed platform for him- still appears to be a somewhat unknown quantity. self and his stances on issues. While President President Bush must keep his supporters happy, Bush has been the subject of daily media report- while John Kerry still needs to convince them. ing by virtue of his offi cial functions, John Kerry, The opinion-leading US media did not do much after the fi rst half of the 2004 campaign year, has to counteract Kerry’s inherent disadvantage. been unable to convey either his program to his On the contrary: Once John Kerry had practi- voters or the reasons why they should elect him cally won the nomination on Super Tuesday, the the next President of the United States. media began to lose interest in the Senator (see chart 2 and 3). In June, they covered President Kerry’s lack of media profi le Bush twice as often as the challenger. The low made him lag in opinion polls media attention for Kerry had immediate effects: Although leading opinion research institutes oc- According to a Gallup opinion poll in July, the casionally suggest otherwise, John Kerry does not number of voters claiming not to have an opin- have a stable lead over President Bush in popular- ion on the Senator from Massachusetts was just ity ratings. A look at the media analysis illustrates as high as last March. The current results of a what opinion polling data alone cannot. The fi rst Pew Centers study confi rm the assumption that Comparison of evaluations in ABC, NBC and CBS evening news, 3/22 – 7/2004 30 positive values: Bush better rated than Kerry 6 George W. Bush Poll: John Kerry needs 20 Media Tenor Bush leads 4 complementary trend Poll: media attention 10 Bush-Kerry Kerry leads 2 more than President 0 0 Bush, in order to -10 -2 lead in opinion polls. John Kerry -20 -4 -30 negative values: Kerry better rated than Bush -6 3/22-28/2004 4/5-11/2004 4/19-25/2004 5/3-9/2004 5/17-23/2004 5/31-6/6/2004 6/14-6/20/2004 6/28-7/4/2004 3/29-4/4/2004 4/12-18/2004 4/26-5/2/2004 5/10-16/2004 5/24-30/2004 6/7/-6/13/2004 6/21-6/27/2004 Media: Difference between share of positive and negative evaluation of both Bush and Kerry (Bush:+, Kerry:-) Poll: “As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry, the Democrat or Bush, the Republican?” Source: Media Tenor Basis: 5,995 statements about Bush and Kerry 03/22 – 07/04/2004 in ABC, NBC, CBS evening news 12 Media Tenor Quarterly Journal No. 2/2004 Politics: US elections II Presence of Bush and Kerry Presence of Kerry January – June 2004 and opinion poll 100% 60% Volume of coverage 9,5 “So far, Kerry’s George W. Bush on Kerry most formidable 80% 50% Poll: no opinion on Kerry 7,5 political talent seems to be 40% 6,0 60% “not-ness”. He won 30% 4,5 the Democratic 40% primaries by not 20% 3,0 being Howard Dean; now he is a whisker 20% 10% 1,5 ahead in the polls John Kerry because he is not 0% 0% 0 January February March April May June March April May June Beginning of July George Bush.” 100%: All statements by or about the candidates 100%: All statements by or about the candidates; poll (The Economist, Source: Media Tenor Basis: 35,907 statements by or about Kerry and Bush Source: Media Tenor; Gallup Basis: 15,000 statements by or about Kerry July 24th) 01/01 – 06/30/2004 in 7 US media 01/01 – 07/13/2004 in 7 US media media coverage affected this lack of opinion. Ac- media have simply informed the public poorly in cording to that study, voters are more interested the second quarter. in the election this year than in the past three elec- tion years. They follow the media coverage of the Focus on foreign policy gives campaign more attentively and think about the Bush incumbent bonus election more intensively. Thus, the fact that vot- While President Bush was struggling with the ers have no opinion of Kerry cannot be explained consequences of Richard A. Clarke’s revealing by a general disinterest of the voters in the cam- book as well as the repercussions of the prison tor- paign or general indifference towards the candi- ture scandal in Iraq, the New York Times advised dates. The most plausible cause is the fact that the John Kerry to concentrate his campaign on voting Bush out of offi ce, instead of trying to distinguish Candidate coverage in the campaign himself with his stances on factual issues. How- year: Topic structure ever, after the fi rst six months of the campaign, it has become obvious that a candidate simply 100% cannot create a sustainable and impressive pro- fi le without addressing factual issues. The fourth graph illustrates the topical structure of candidate 80% coverage by the opinion forming US media in the fi rst half of the 2004 campaign year over time. In 60% the fi rst quarter of 2004, the media focused on the Democratic candidates’ campaigning during the Campaigning primaries. At that time, voters received only little 40% information on factual issues, and John Kerry, by virtue of winning most of the ballots, received almost the entire media attention. In March, af- 20% Issues ter the primaries were practically over, the media increasingly provided information on factual is- 0% sues. Campaigning only played a secondary role January February March April May June in the second quarter. Simultaneously, the media 100%: All statements by or about John Kerry continued to lose interest in Kerry. The chart on top of page 14 demonstrates the topical structure Source: Media Tenor Basis: 63,432 statements 01/01 – 06/30/2004 in 7 US media of reporting on John Kerry and George W. Bush. Media Tenor Quarterly Journal No. 2/2004 13 Politics: US elections II Coverage of Bush and Kerry: sue-focused profile of himself in the media? The Comparison of topic structure following two explanations are possible: Either Kerry’s communication advisers purposefully 100% Jan - March 2004 April - June 2004 and strategically decided to hold back issue-ori- ented concepts, or the John Kerry only media, in their news other 80% appeared in the selection, simply ig- media as long as his nored the information 60% campaign was Kerry provided. A look campaign at the media agenda interesting. suggests the answer. 40% The charts below show personality the topical agenda of the opinion forming Ameri- 20% can media on leading US politicians in the second quarter of 2004, compared with that of the same issues time period in 2000. In the first election year since 0% September 11 the campaign agenda has entirely Bush Kerry Bush Kerry shifted towards foreign policy, which stands out Share of coverage as a topic in the current election year, receiving Source: Media Tenor Basis: 20,256/15,000 statements about five times more attention than four years ago. 01/01 – 06/30/2004 Bush and Kerry in 7 US media The second most important topic is terrorism. This year, both issues seem to push all other is- John Kerry’s presence in the media primarily de- sues below the awareness threshold that used to pended on the journalists’ interest in campaign be very important in 2000: domestic policy, social issues, both in the first and the second quarter. security, the economy and health care. The strong When campaign coverage diminished, so did John focus on foreign policy automatically translates Kerry’s presence in the media. Had the senator into yet another incumbent bonus for President succeeded in raising attention by tackling factual Bush.