Aylesbury Vale District Housing Land Supply Position as at end September 2010 – prepared December 2010 Introduction This document sets out the housing land supply position in Aylesbury Vale District as at 30th September 2010. Lists of sites included in the housing land supply are given in Appendices 1 and 2. Assessment of current housing land supply The current supply of housing land in the District is made up from: • Sites with planning permission; • Sites that do not yet have planning permission, but that have been approved in principle, subject to the completion of a Section 106 or planning obligation agreement; • Sites that are allocated in the Aylesbury Vale District Local Plan but that do not yet have planning permission or approval subject to a Section 106 agreement. All sites for 5 dwellings or more that are included in the supply have been individually assessed as being available, suitable and achievable. Wherever possible we have obtained up- to-date estimates of build rates from housing developers. All sites for under 5 dwellings that have full planning permission have been included in the supply, but the overall total has been subjected to a 10% discount to account for the fact that some sites will not be implemented. Summary of housing land supply position Number of dwellings (net of losses) Aylesbury Rest of District Total Deliverable sites with 4,768 2,322 7,090 planning permission Deliverable sites not yet with 395 180 575 planning permission but approved subject to S106 Deliverable sites identified in 147 36 183 AVDLP but not yet with planning permission or approved subject to S106 Total deliverable supply 5,310 2,538 7,848 2010-2026 Out of this total supply, the number of dwellings expected to be delivered in the next two five year periods is: Aylesbury Rest of District Total Deliverable supply 2,783 2,230 5,013 2010-2015 Deliverable supply 2,801 2,002 4,803 2011-2016 It can be seen that 5,013 dwellings are deliverable within the 5 year period 2010-2015 (an average annual figure of 1,003 dwellings). When these figures are compared against the trajectory of housing delivery that has taken place within the district, they indicate that there is 1 sufficient supply to deliver an increased level of housing over the next 5 years, compared to the previous 5 years (the average annual number of dwellings completed over 2005-2010 was 724). South East Plan policy MKAV1 states that provision will be made for at least 26,890 dwellings in Aylesbury Vale District between 2006 and 2026 as follows: Aylesbury 16,800 (840 per annum) North East Aylesbury Vale 5,390 (269.5 per annum) (South West Milton Keynes) Rest of District 4,700 (235 per annum) Total 26,890 (1344.5 per annum) Six tables are presented below. The first two show the five year housing land supply calculation for the whole District, for the two five year periods 2010 to 2015, and 2011 to 2016. The second two show the five year housing land supply calculation for Aylesbury, for the same two five year periods, and the final two show the five year housing land supply calculation for the Rest of District (excluding Aylesbury and North East Aylesbury Vale). District Wide Housing land supply for 1 st April 2010 to 31 st March 2015 SEP requirement (5 x 1334.5) 6,723 Adjustment for pre-2010 deficit* 750 Total 5 year requirement 7,473 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 5,013 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 67.1% (3.4 years) *In the period 2006 to 2010 the number of housing completions in Aylesbury Vale has fallen short of the SEP requirement for that period by 2,401 dwellings. This deficit is added to the requirement for the remaining 16 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2010 to 2015 needs to be increased by an additional 750 dwellings (5 x 2401 / 16). District Wide Housing land supply for 1 st April 2011 to 31 st March 2016 SEP requirement (5 x 1334.5) 6,723 Adjustment for (projected) pre-2011 deficit* 996 Total 5 year requirement 7,719 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 4,803 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 62.2% (3.1 years) *In the period 2006 to 2011 the number of housing completions in Aylesbury Vale is projected to fall short of the SEP requirement for that period by 2,989 dwellings. This deficit is added to the requirement for the remaining 15 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2011 to 2016 needs to be increased by an additional 996 dwellings (5 x 2989 / 15). 2 Aylesbury Housing land supply for 1 st April 2010 to 31 st March 2015 SEP requirement (5 x 840) 4,200 Adjustment for pre-2010 deficit* 480 Total 5 year requirement 4,680 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 2,783 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 59.5% (3.0 years) *In the period 2006 to 2010 the number of housing completions in Aylesbury has fallen short of the SEP requirement for that period by 1,535 dwellings. This deficit is added to the requirement for the remaining 16 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2010 to 2015 needs to be increased by an additional 480 dwellings (5 x 1535 / 16). Aylesbury Housing land supply for 1 st April 2011 to 31 st March 2016 SEP requirement (5 x 840) 4,200 Adjustment for (projected) pre-2011 deficit* 671 Total 5 year requirement 4,871 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 2,801 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 57.5% (2.9 years) *In the period 2006 to 2011 the number of housing completions in Aylesbury is projected to fall short of the SEP requirement for that period by 2,014 dwellings. This deficit is added to the requirement for the remaining 15 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2011 to 2016 needs to be increased by an additional 671 dwellings (5 x 2014 / 15). Rest of District Housing land supply for 1 st April 2010 to 31 st March 2015 SEP requirement (5 x 235) 1,175 Adjustment for pre-2010 oversupply* -66 Total 5 year requirement 1,109 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 2,230 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 201.1% (10.1 years) *In the period 2006 to 2010 the number of housing completions in the Rest of District has exceeded the SEP requirement for that period by 212 dwellings. This oversupply is subtracted from the requirement for the remaining 16 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2010 to 2015 needs to be reduced by 66 dwellings (5 x 212 / 16). Rest of District Housing land supply for 1 st April 2011 to 31 st March 2016 SEP requirement (5 x 235) 1,175 Adjustment for (projected) pre-2011 oversupply* -124 Total 5 year requirement 1,051 Total projected supply from deliverable sites 2,002 Projected supply as percentage of requirement 190.5% (9.5 years) 3 *In the period 2006 to 2011 the number of housing completions in the Rest of District is projected to exceed the SEP requirement for that period by 373 dwellings. This oversupply is subtracted from the requirement for the remaining 15 years of the SEP period, thus the requirement for 2011 to 2016 needs to be reduced by 124 dwellings (5 x 373 / 15). Details of individual sites The tables in Appendices 1 and 2 below list all the individual sites that make up the housing land supply figures given in the tables above. 4 Appendix 1: List of sites contributing to the projected housing supply Estimated number of completions Deliverability commentary Status as at Total number 2010-2026 * 2010-2015 2011-2016 Available Suitable Achievable 30/09/2010 of dwellings (five years) (five years) Aylesbury - With Planning Permission Berryfields Major AVDLP & 3000 3000 1115 1345 Under construction. Contact made with Development Area (MDA) Permission developers/agents. Estimated completion rate provided. Weedon Hill MDA AVDLP & 850 341 341 261 Under construction. Contact made with Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Weedon Hill MDA increase AVDLP & 172 172 172 172 Under construction. Contact made with (phases 3B and 5) Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Stoke Mandeville Hospital AVDLP & 121 69 69 46 Under construction. Contact made with (north part), Lower Road Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Stoke Mandeville Hospital AVDLP & 330 268 150 150 Under construction. Contact made with (south part & some land Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. outside allocation), Lower Road Former Schwarzkopf, Penn Permission 391 111 111 61 Under construction. Contact made with Road (Grand Central) developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Gatehouse Quarter Permission 370 370 231 209 Under construction. Contact made with developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. Walton Street (Viridian Complete 214 36 36 0 Development completed August 2010. Square) Former T.A. Centre, Oxford AVDLP & 94 94 94 94 Under construction. Contact made with Road Permission developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. 5 Hartwell Sidings, Oxford Road Permission 75 75 75 75 Contact made with developers/agents. Completion rate estimated based on information provided. J Sainsbury Plc, 13-19 Permission 40 40 40 40 Contact made with developers/agents. Buckingham Street Assumed to commence in 2013. Former Dayla, 80-100 High Permission 39 39 39 39 Contact made with developers/agents.