Review of Proposed Development at Britannia Beach December 2012 Prepared for: Squamish-Lillooet Regional District By: Coriolis Consulting Corp. REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background and Purpose ......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Developer’s Study ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Professional Disclaimer ............................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Development Concept ........................................................................................... 3 2.1 Site Location in Regional Context ............................................................................................ 3 2.2 Site Description .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Development Plan ...................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 Developer’s Market Analysis ................................................................................ 6 3.1 Demographic Trends and Housing Demand ........................................................................... 6 3.2 Market Competition and Absorption ........................................................................................ 8 4.0 Approach and Study Area ..................................................................................... 9 5.0 Evaluation of the Residential Market Performance of the Proposed Concept12 5.1 Development Capacity in the Study Area .............................................................................. 12 5.1.1 Existing Development Capacity and Potential Additional Supply ........................ 12 5.1.2 Competing Projects.............................................................................................. 13 5.1.3 Summary of Residential Development Capacity ................................................. 14 5.2 Indicators of Absorption by Type of Unit in the Study area ................................................ 15 5.2.1 Absorption Trends at Major Projects in the Britannia Beach Area ...................... 15 5.2.2 Development Trends in the Study Area ............................................................... 16 5.2.3 Population and Household Growth 2001-2011 .................................................... 18 5.2.4 Population and Household Forecasts 2012-2031 ............................................... 19 5.2.5 Summary of Indicators of Residential Absorption in the Study Area ................... 22 5.3 Comparison of Development Capacity with Potential Absorption ..................................... 22 5.4 Potential for Drawing New Demand to the Study Area ........................................................ 23 5.4.1 Active Commuters................................................................................................ 23 5.4.2 Affluent Metro Vancouver Residents Near Retirement Age ................................ 25 CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE I REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH 5.4.3 Former Whistler Residents and old Sports-Minded ............................................. 26 5.4.4 Young Sports-Minded .......................................................................................... 26 6.0 Summary of Potential Residential Absorption in the Study Area ................... 28 7.0 Upper and Lower Estimates of Absorption at the Proposed Project .............. 29 8.0 Evaluation of Commercial Development Potential Based on Market Indicators ............................................................................................................. 30 8.1 Developer’s Evaluation of Commercial Development Potential ......................................... 30 8.2 Evaluation of Supportable Retail/Service Potential ............................................................. 31 APPENDIX: Study Area Development Projects ........................................................... 33 CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE II REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH 1.0 Introduction 1.1 Background and Purpose Taicheng Development Corp. is proposing a large comprehensive project in South Britannia. The plan includes about 3,000 residential units of various types (with almost half proposed to be low-rise or high-rise apartments), 330,000 square feet of retail, office, and hotel, and a variety of recreational and community amenity facilities. We understand that the concept plan (including unit count) is being refined, but our analysis assumes that the project consists of about 3,000 units. The developer’s projected residential absorption rate is on the order of 300 units per year. The total project size, the residential unit mix, and the projected absorption rate can all be considered aggressive relative to past development and trends in the Sea-to-Sky Corridor. The Squamish-Lillooet Regional District (SLRD) is evaluating this development application and is interested in an independent opinion on the likely market performance of the plan. Because the project would have implications for infrastructure, school planning, land use planning throughout the corridor, and other planning considerations, SLRD is looking for advice as to whether the project would be likely to be absorbed in the time frame proposed by the developer. The SLRD is mainly interested in the residential and retail components of the project and wants a high level review at this time. The SLRD retained Coriolis to evaluate the proposed concept and comment on the likely absorption period and the mix of residential units. 1.2 Developer’s Study Our review of the development proposal for the subject site relies on information provided by the client. Our work references the market study entitled “Britannia Beach South, Howe Sound, British Columbia: Master Planned Community – Market Demand / Supply and Financial / Economic Impact Study” prepared by Site Economics Ltd. in December 2011 (plus partial update in the Fall 2012). 1.3 Professional Disclaimer This document may contain estimates and forecasts of future growth and urban development prospects, estimates of the financial performance of possible future urban development projects, opinions regarding the likelihood of approval of development projects, and recommendations regarding development strategy or municipal policy. All such estimates, forecasts, opinions, and recommendations are based in part on forecasts and assumptions regarding population change, economic growth, policy, market conditions, development costs and other variables. The assumptions, estimates, forecasts, opinions, and recommendations are based on interpreting past trends, gauging current conditions, and making judgments about the future. As with all judgments concerning future trends and events, however, there is uncertainty and risk that conditions change or unanticipated circumstances occur such that actual events turn out differently than as anticipated in this document, which is intended to be used as a reasonable indicator of potential outcomes rather than as a precise prediction of future events. Nothing contained in this report, express or implied, shall confer rights or remedies upon, or create any contractual relationship with, or cause of action in favor of, any third party relying upon this document. CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE 1 REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH In no event shall Coriolis Consulting Corp. be liable to the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District or any third party for any indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages whatsoever, including lost revenues or profits. CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE 2 REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH 2.0 Development Concept 2.1 Site Location in Regional Context The site is located at Britannia Beach in Electoral Area D of the SLRD. Nearby communities to the south include Furry Creek (6 km), Lions Bay (21 km), and Horseshoe Bay (33 km). Nearby communities to the north include Squamish (12 km) and Whistler (70 km). The site is connected to the surrounding communities by the Sea-to-Sky Highway 99, which offers easy access south to downtown Vancouver (51 km) and the entire Metro Vancouver region. Exhibit 1 shows Britannia Beach in a regional context: Exhibit 1: Britannia Beach in Regional Context CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE 3 REVIEW OF PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AT BRITANNIA BEACH 2.2 Site Description The proposed development is located south of the Britannia Beach town centre on a 600 acre parcel. The developer’s consultant indicates that site constraints limit the total developable area to approximately 310 acres. The irregularly shaped and sloping property has approximately 1 km of low bank waterfront on Howe Sound and has the potential to offer excellent views from the upland areas. Most of the property is separated from the waterfront by Highway 99 and the rail right-of-way, which run across the property. The site operated as a gravel pit in the past but is mostly undeveloped and parts are still forested. The property is mostly surrounded by undeveloped land. Exhibit 2 shows an aerial view of the site. The yellow outline indicates Crown land