ReportNo. 3833-PAN Panama ULE(pv SpecialEconomic Report Public Disclosure Authorized MetropolitanUnemployment June7, 1982 Latin America and the CaribbeanRegional Office FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bank authorization. Currency Equivalents US$1.00 = 1.00 Balboa (B/.) Panama uses the U.S. Dollar as currency and has no Central Bank. The emission of Balboas is restrictedto coins. Glossary of Abbreviations CAT - Certificadode Abono Tributario (Tax' ertificate) CFZ - Colon Free Zone A0"f0 (Zona Libre de Colon) COkINA - CorporacionFinanciera Nacional (Finance Corporation) ILO - InternationalLabor Organization IMF - InternationalMonetary Fund Fiscal Year January 1 to December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY SYNOPSIS The Panamanian economy has recovered from the recession of the mid-1970s, mainly as a result of renewed private sector confidence. The public sector deficit has been reduced and the growth of the public external debt in relation to GDP has been reversed. However, recent changes in the internationalenvironment could slow the growth of the dynamic sectors and of the economy as a whole. Meanwhile, Panama is facing a problem of high unemploymentin the MetropolitanArea and this could become worse if output growth and job generationare not increased. The report identifiesthe main changes in policy needed to reduce the constraintsof a small domestic market and the anti-employmentbias inherent in the present system of incentives and labor regulation. These changes, coupled with an appropriatepublic investmentprogram, could enhance growth and employmentprospects in the 1980s. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. PANAMA SPECIAL ECONOMIC REPORT METROPOLITAN UNEMPLOYMENT Table of Contents Page Number COUNTRY DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .......... .................................. .. ....... i-ix I. INTRODUCTION .......................................... 1 II. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ........................... 2 III. UNEMPLOYMENT IN METROPOLITAN PANAMA ................... 11 A. Why Focus on the Metropolitan Area ............... 11 B. Composition of the Unemployed .................... 14 C. Metropolitan Labor Force in the 1980's ........... 15 D. Trends in Metropolitan Employment ................ 20 E. Employment Policy Implications ................ ... 25 IV. GROWTH AND EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS IN THE INTERNATIONAL SERVICE SECTORS ....... ................................ 28 A. The Financial Sector ............................... 28 B. Tourism ........ .................................. 31 C. Colon Free Zone ..................................33 V. The Manufacturing Sector .............................. 37 A. Recent Trends in Growth and Employment ........... 35 B. Propects for Growth ................ .............. 36 C. The Prospects for Employment in Manufacturing .... 42 This report was produced by an economic mission to Panama in September and October 1980 and a short updating mission in January 1982. The draft report was discussed with the Government in late March 1982. The members of the 1980 mission were Gladstone Bonnick (Chief); Ismael Dalla (the Manufacturing Sector); Marienne Lehwing (Human Resources Specialist); Luis Garcia (Public Investment Program); Miren Etcheverry (Research Assistant); and Bertha Cassorla (Secretary). TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page Number VI. THE PUBLIC SECTOR AND THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM .......... 46 A. The Need for Austerity in Public Investment ...... 46 B. The Public Investment Program 1982-1985 .......... 50 C. The Employment Impact of the Program in the Metropolitan Area ... ........... .................... 51 D. Key Decisions to be Made .............. ............ 53 VII. ECONOMIC GROWTH PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS ........ 57 STATISTICAL APPENDIX . ........................ ..... .. ................ 60 MAP Page 1 of 2 COUNTRY DATA - PANAMA LAND AREA POPULATION DENSITY (mid-1980) Total 77.1 thousand km2 1.8 million (mid-1980) 23.8 per km4 Agr. 17.3 thousand km2 Rate of Growth: 2.5% (from 1970 to 1980) 106.1 per km2 of Arable Land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS HEALTH Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 27.1 Population per Physician 1,008. Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 4.1 Population per Hospital Bed 250 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 21.2 INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP % of National Income, Highest Quintile 52.7 % Owned by Top 10% of Owners Lowest Quintile 2.1 % Owned by Smallest 10% Owners ACCESS TO SAFE WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1980) % of Population 79.7 % of Population 64.8 NUTRITION EDUCATION (1980) Calorie Intake as % of Requirements 101.0 Adult Literacy Rate 88.1% Per Capita Protein Intake 61.0 gms. Primary School Enrollment 88.0%a/ GNP PER CAPITA IN 1980 b/ US$ 1730 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1980 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (% constant 1960 prices) US$ Mln. % 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 .GDP at Market Prices 3,390.9 100.0 7.7 4.9 4.5 Gross Domestic Investment 926.3 27.3 16.5 5.1 0.6 Gross National Savings 694.3 20.4 17.6 12.4 -1.7 Current Account Balance -232.0 6.8 - - - Exports of Goods, NFS 1,614.8 47.6 7.8 3.5 - Imports of Goods, NFS 1,702.9 50.2 9.1 1.6 - OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1980 Value Added Labor Force V. A. Per Worker US$ Mln. % Thou. % US$ % Agriculture 559.5 16.5 142 27.3 3,940 60 Industry 796.9 23.5 65 12.5 12,260 188 Services 2,034.5 60.0 313 60.2 6,500 100 Total/Average 3,390.9 100.0 520 100.0 6,520 100 PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC SECTOR (Bl. Mln.) % of GDP 1981 1981 1978-80 Current Receipts 1,185 30.8 26.9 Current Expenditure 1,024 26.6 26.3 Current Surplus 161 4.2 0.6 Capital Expenditures 395 10.3 10.9 a/ Since partial change to eight years of basic school allocated students from primary to secondary track the enrollment ratios do not accurately reflect percentage of relevant age cohorts actually in a school. b/ 1981 World Atlas Methodology. Not available Page 2 of 2 COUNTRY DATA - PANAMA MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 (Million B/. outstanding, end period) Money and Quasi Money 792.2 944.9 1,162.4 1,454.4 1,718.2 Bank Credit to Public Sector, Net 315.1 167.3 257.7 265.1 390.1 Bank Credit to Private Sector 1,369.5 1,537.3 1,839.4 2,215.8 2,617.9 (percentage or index numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 36.5 38.4 40.9 42.9 44.6 Consumer Price Index (1977 = 100) 100.0 104.2 112.5 128.0 137.4 Percentage changes in: Consumer Price Index 4.5 4.2 8.0 13.8 7.3 Bank Credit to Public Sector 0.6 -46.9 54.0 2.9 47.2 Bank Credit to Private Sector 7.8 12.2 19.7 20.5 18.1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1978-80) 1970 1975 1981 US$ Mln. (Millions US$) Bananas 66.4 Exports of Goods, NFS 383.2 851.5 1,608.1 Refined Petroleum 71.6 Imports of Goods, NFS 422.5 992.1 1,785.7 Sugar 37.5 Resource Gap -39.3 -140.6 -177.6 Shrimp 39.6 Beef 2.3 Factor Income (net) -28.4 -20.8 -180.5 All other goods 116.7 Net Transfers 4.0 -5.0 -26.1 Total 334.1 Balance on Current Account -63.7 -166.4 -384.2 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1980 Direct Foreign Investment (net) 33.4 10.2 30.0 (Million US$) Net MLT Borrowing 86.4 175.8 76.3 Public Debt, Incl. Guaranteed 2,276.9 Other Capital (net) -52.1 -149.5 114.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt - Total Outstanding and Disbursed 2,276.9 Increase Net in Reserves -4.0 129.9 163.6 = increase) DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1980 30.9% RLATEOF EXCHANGE IBRD) LENDING, MARCH 31, 19-82 (Million US$) US$ 1.00 - B/. 1.00 B/. 1.00 = US$ 1.00 Outstanding and Disbursed 166 Undisbursed 145 Outstanding inc. Undisbursed 311 June 2, 1982 PANAMA SPECIAL ECONOMIC REPORT ON METROPOLITANUNEMPLOYMENT SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS A. Recent Performance i. The history of the Panamanian economy before 1978 has been amply documentedin earlier Bank reports and need not be repeated in detail here. 1/ The period 1960 to 1981 may be divided into three sub-periodsaccording to the behavior of the economy. Between 1960 and 1973 GDP grew at an average rate of 7 percent, and employment expanded rapidly. In the period 1974 to 1977 economic growth fell to an average of under 2 percent per annum and job creation came to a standstill. Subsequently,growth recovered to an average of 5.5 percent during 1978 to 1981 with a salutary effect on job generation. During the first period, buoyant demand for internationalcommercial and financial services permitted the expansion of the Colon Free Zone and the establishmentof internationalbanking, while a strategy of import substitu- tion encouraged the developmentof an industrial sector. The private sector flourished and a constructionboom transformedthe capital city. Unfortunate- ly the collapse of this constructionboom and the oil price rise in 1973, falling private sector confidencedue to the Canal negotiationswith the U.S., labor and price policies, and the Government'sinvestments in commercial ventures (sugar, citrus, and cement) provoked a recession in private investmentwhich lasted until early 1978. ii. By the beginning of 1976 the rapid increase in the public external debt and rising unemploymentbegan to cause concern among policymakers. In December of that year the Government suspended some provisionsof the labor code and introducedadditional tax incentives to stimulate private investment. In 1977 the Governmentcurtailed the growth of current expenditures,cut public sector investment,and increased taxes and public utilities tariffs in an effort to reduce the public sector deficit and slow the growth of the public debt.