Center on Japanese Economy and Business China’s Economic and Trade Relations April 2012 erit E. Janow, Professor in the Practice of International Economic Law and International Affairs and Director of the Program in International Finance and Economic Policy at Columbia’s School of Inter- Mnational and Public Affairs, hosted an off-the-record, high-level conference on China’s economic and trade relations on November 10, 2011. The purpose of this interdisciplinary conference was to bring together a group of leading academic experts, practitioners, policymakers, and business executives to analyze and discuss certain key areas of both economic tension and potential economic opportunity between China and, particularly, developed economies. The conference focused on four areas: international trade, investment, capital markets, and technology and innovation. These areas were selected because they can be expected to present opportuni- ties for commercial collaboration and economic growth in the years ahead. Participants were invited to identify concrete steps that could be taken in each area and to be bold and constructive. The event was held in a round- table format to encourage discussion. Each topic began with four presenters making short speeches, followed by a discussion. China’s Economic and Trade Relations April 2012 can be used effectively. It was noted, for example, that the WTO process is lengthy and there are times when it is simply faster to try to negotiate a solution than litigate one. There are also market access problems that are not fully covered by the rules of the WTO. It appears that there are instances when the Appellate Body has so many cases under way simultane- ously that it has had to put off accepting any further cases. More fundamental operational issues occur at the panel level; for example, there are significant difficulties in obtaining and handling evidence and numerous difficulties organizing pan- els, among other factors. Thus, it was suggested that while the WTO dispute settlement system is working quite well, it Zhang Lanlan, Merit E. Janow, Robert Nederlander Jr. too faces limitations and challenges. A second focus of the trade discussion concentrated on INTERNATIONAL TRADE the rising importance of regional trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which has recently been pro- The first panel focused on China’s participation in the World moted by the United States and appears to have the endorse- Trade Organization (WTO), in regional trade arrangements, ment now of Japan. Asia is involved in two separate tracks of and China-U.S. trade and macro trends more generally. With regional trade agreements. One is the TPP, which currently respect to China’s participation in the WTO, several partici- excludes China, and the other is an agreement among the pants stressed the importance of the WTO’s dispute settle- Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which will ment mechanism and addressed how it is being used by China include and likely be driven by China, and may be enhanced by and by other jurisdictions with respect to their trade com- discussions between China, Japan, and South Korea. It was plaints vis-à-vis China. China has already been a very active argued that policymakers and business leaders should think participant in WTO disputes—as respondent, complainant, about the dynamics associated with a two-track approach to and third party. By some counts, there have been 14 disputes free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region and consider involving China. Most of these have occurred in the past five the long-term implications for the region. The long-term ben- years. In those instances where China is a respondent, the efits from economic integration, including between the United complainant is usually the United States or the United States States and China, are very great. There are many important with others. The subject matter of the disputes has encom- economic and political reasons to cooperate, even though we passed quite a few areas of the covered agreements of the should expect both competition and economic tension along WTO: trade remedies, discrimination, services, GATT, and the way. This is not going to be an easy negotiation for either intellectual property, among others. The compliance record track. Over time, it was argued, we should be thinking about to date for China of those few cases that have been fully liti- approaches that would link these two tracks and foster deeper gated is also quite good. One participant expressed the view economic integration for all the players, including cooperation that the WTO dispute settlement mechanism is working, that between the United States and China. In the near term, the it is increasingly being utilized by China and other countries U.S.-centric and the China-centric tracks are likely to attract with respect to trade disputes, and in fact it should be used and compete for new members. There will be differences in still more often to address sources of trade tension between what is covered and how economic issues are handled under China and its trading partners. Other participants argued that the respective rules. The biggest gains are likely to occur if there are practical limits to WTO dispute settlement. Some both the United States and China are part of the same inte- argued that an effective China trade policy requires a num- gration instruments, so this should be a long-term goal. It was ber of different elements working in concert; there are limits suggested that we need to utilize existing mechanisms such to the extent to which the WTO dispute settlement system 2 China’s Economic and Trade Relations Arvind Panagariya, Peter Petri, Jeffrey Shafer Chad Bown, Arvind Panagariya Claire Reade, Julia Ya Qin as APEC as well as the WTO itself in order to help facilitate the cussion about jobs in the United States will focus on a clus- evolution of these regional arrangements. ter of potential policy responses, including but by no means A third point of focus centered on the macroeconomic en- limited to international trade policies. It is also important, it vironment in which global trade is operating. Long-standing was argued, for the U.S. and Chinese authorities to reach an tensions over trade policies and exchange rates between agreement on a process for trade rebalancing that involves the United States and China were unlikely to recede, it was multiple elements, including savings-investment adjustment argued, and could very likely intensify in the current global macro– in both economies (in different directions) and real exchange economic environment. In the United States, the difficult rate changes. This needs to be monitored by both countries outlook for the U.S. economy reflects underlying conditions to ensure progress is sustained and trade pressures do not that are fundamentally different from those that prevailed become severe. before the crisis. For example, the monetary policy transmis- sion is badly damaged, the buildup of debt by households INVESTMENT and governments means that household spending is limited, and governments are constrained from using fiscal stimulus The second session of the conference focused on invest- measures. The debt situation of the federal government and ment and the potential for China to become a major outward state and local governments continues to be problematic. In foreign direct investor. There has already been a substan- a weak economy, countries have an instinct to block imports, tial amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China, with and trade liberalization initiatives tend to lose priority. In fact, measures estimating a stock of $1.3 trillion accumulating it was argued that virtually all of the major initiatives for trade between 1980 and 2010. This stands in stark contrast as a liberalization have occurred in the United States during peri- development strategy to that adopted by other countries in ods of relative economic health. Thus, it is unrealistic to expect Asia that have been far less willing to allow or encourage for- that politics in the United States can support trade liberaliza- eign direct investment. The new development is outbound FDI tion at present. At the same time, it may be possible to better from China, driven in part by resource interests, but increas- manage corporate trade concerns such as intellectual prop- ingly by a broader set of objectives as well. The discussion erty rights, innovation policies, and government subsidies. on investment focused on why Chinese firms are investing Chinese investment in the United States could also be an area abroad, in the United States and elsewhere; the obstacles where constructive actions occur. Nevertheless, we need to and constraints that they face, at home and abroad; and, be realistic, it was argued, about what the macro numbers are conversely, the investment/regulatory climate in China for likely to look like. It was also argued that the situation would foreign investors. not be improved by the passage of protectionist trade legisla- With respect to outbound Chinese investment, it was ar- tion, most particularly legislation such as the China currency gued that drivers such as the following were among the rea- bill that is currently under discussion. Some participants also sons for going abroad: Chinese firms’ need to diversify their noted that expanding trade and even expanding exports does exposure, the current reality that strong companies have a lot not necessarily equate to expanding jobs to the extent that of cash, and that foreign markets also provided real opportu- is necessary to address political issues in the United States. nities to generate returns. In China, state-owned enterprises Thus, developments that are good for U.S. multinationals (SOEs) are often the vanguard of global FDI and are sensitive and shareholders do not necessarily address sufficiently the to achieving adequate returns.