THE ANTICIPATORY EFFECTS OF COMMUTER RAIL ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ORANGE COUNTY, FL By BENJAMIN LYTLE A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2014 © 2014 Benjamin Lytle ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my committee for their guidance throughout my graduate studies. Specifically I would like to thank Dr. Ruth Steiner for introducing me to new ways to look at issues I thought I understood, Dr. Paul Zwick for introducing me to the joys of ArcGIS ModelBuilder, and Dr. Abhinav Alakshendra for assigning the project that lead to this thesis. I would also like to thank the professionals who assisted with the collection of data. In particular, I would like to thank Sara Forelle for giving me the names of the best people to contact for building permit data: Dean Salmons, Elizabeth Dang, Sara Blanchard, and Keith Gerhartz who kindly arranged for me to have access to the data necessary for this project and answered questions regarding the permit records. I am also grateful to anyone within the planning offices who may have supported those listed above with the creation or packaging of this data. My parents and grandparents deserve thanks for their love and support. Without them, I don't know if I would have been able to complete this program. I am also grateful for the advice and conversation of David Wasserman and Marcos Bastian. David showed me that it was possible to graduate on time and Marcos convinced me that if I didn't it would take seven years. Finally, I would like to thank my fiancée Tracey for putting up with me over the last two years. Her patience and love have probably been more than I deserve. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 3 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 7 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................. 9 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 12 SunRail and Orange County ................................................................................... 12 Research Questions ............................................................................................... 15 Organization ........................................................................................................... 16 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 17 Theoretical Impact of Transit .................................................................................. 17 Case Studies .......................................................................................................... 18 3 METHOLOGY ......................................................................................................... 26 Data Availability ...................................................................................................... 26 Parcel Data ....................................................................................................... 26 Creating proximity indicators ...................................................................... 27 Creating noise indicators............................................................................ 29 Creating land use indicators ....................................................................... 30 Creating control group indicators ............................................................... 30 Permit Data ...................................................................................................... 31 Missing Data ..................................................................................................... 32 Analysis Procedure ................................................................................................. 33 Parcel Data Analysis ........................................................................................ 33 Permit Data Analysis ........................................................................................ 34 4 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 36 Overall Land Use Change ....................................................................................... 36 Land Value Change: All Land Use Types ............................................................... 37 Two Mile Buffer ................................................................................................ 37 One Mile Buffer ................................................................................................ 38 4 Other Distance Measures ................................................................................. 39 Land Value Change: Residential Land Use ............................................................ 41 Two Mile Buffer ................................................................................................ 41 One Mile Buffer ................................................................................................ 42 Half Mile Buffer ................................................................................................. 42 Quarter Mile Buffer ........................................................................................... 43 Linear Distance ................................................................................................ 44 Land Value Change: Commercial Land Use ........................................................... 44 Linear Distance ................................................................................................ 44 Half Mile Buffer ................................................................................................. 45 Quarter Mile Buffer ........................................................................................... 46 Land Value Change: Institutional Land Use ............................................................ 46 Land Value Change: Industrial Land Use ............................................................... 46 Building Permits by Jurisdiction .............................................................................. 47 Maitland ............................................................................................................ 48 Winter Park ....................................................................................................... 50 Orlando............................................................................................................. 51 Orange County ................................................................................................. 53 Building Permits by Station ..................................................................................... 55 Downtown (Church Street Station) ................................................................... 55 Urban Center (Florida Hospital Health Village Station) .................................... 57 Village Center (Maitland Station) ...................................................................... 60 Neighborhood Center (Meadow Woods Station) .............................................. 63 5 DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................... 65 6 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 68 Further Research .................................................................................................... 69 Limitations ............................................................................................................... 70 APPENDIX A PARCEL DATA ....................................................................................................... 71 B JURISDICTION-LEVEL PERMIT DATA ................................................................. 85 C STATION-LEVEL DATA ......................................................................................... 91 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 102 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 107 5 LIST OF TABLES Table page 4-1 Land use changes within a half mile of stations compared to total parcels in Orange County. .................................................................................................. 36 4-2 Permits issued within a half mile of SunRail stations compared to all permits issued by the City of Maitland. ............................................................................ 49 4-3 Permits issued within a half mile of SunRail stations compared to all permits issued by the City of Winter Park. ....................................................................... 51 4-4 Permits issued within a half mile of SunRail stations compared to all permits issued by the City of Orlando.............................................................................