National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Integrated Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Fire Island National Seashore Natural Resource Report NPS/FIIS/NRR—2020/2156 ON THE COVER Photograph of the Fire Island Light and associated buildings. Photograph courtesy of the National Park Service Integrated Coastal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Fire Island National Seashore Natural Resource Report NPS/FIIS/NRR—2020/2156 Glenn Ricci1, Donald D. Robadue, Jr.1, Pam Rubinoff1, Alanna Casey1 and Amanda L. Babson2 1Coastal Resources Center Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island Narragansett, RI 02882 2National Park Service Interior Region 1, North Atlantic – Appalachian University of Rhode Island Narragansett, RI 02882 July 2020 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado, publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics. These reports are of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate comprehensive information and analysis about natural resources and related topics concerning lands managed by the National Park Service. The series supports the advancement of science, informed decision-making, and the achievement of the National Park Service mission. The series also provides a forum for presenting more lengthy results that may not be accepted by publications with page limitations. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. This report received formal peer review by subject-matter experts who were not directly involved in the collection, analysis, or reporting of the data, and whose background and expertise put them on par technically and scientifically with the authors of the information. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available in digital format from the Natural Resource Publications Management website. If you have difficulty accessing information in this publication, particularly if using assistive technology, please email [email protected]. Please cite this publication as: Ricci, G., D. D. Robadue, Jr., P. Rubinoff, A. Casey, and A. L. Babson. 2020. Integrated coastal climate change vulnerability assessment: Fire Island National Seashore. Natural Resource Report NPS/FIIS/NRR—2020/2156. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 615/171157, July 2020 ii Contents Page Figures.................................................................................................................................................. vii Tables .................................................................................................................................................... ix Appendices ..........................................................................................................................................xiii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. xv Fire Island Light Station ............................................................................................................. xvii Island Change on the Bayside .................................................................................................... xvii William Floyd Estate .................................................................................................................xviii Cultural Resources....................................................................................................................... xix Natural Resources ........................................................................................................................ xix Facility Assets .............................................................................................................................. xx Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................xxiii List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................... xxv Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Purpose of the Assessment ............................................................................................................. 1 Context of Integrated Studies in NPS ............................................................................................. 3 Assessment Framework .................................................................................................................. 3 Assessment Process ........................................................................................................................ 8 Climate Projections ...................................................................................................................... 10 Caveats ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Focal Areas for Integration .................................................................................................................. 15 Fire Island Light Station ............................................................................................................... 15 Description of Resource and Value ......................................................................................... 15 Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 16 Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................... 18 Relationship of Vulnerability to Adaptive Capacity ............................................................... 18 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 21 iii Contents (continued) Page Island Change on the Bayside ...................................................................................................... 21 Description of Resource and Value ......................................................................................... 21 Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 22 Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................... 24 Relationship of Vulnerability to Adaptive Capacity ............................................................... 24 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 26 William Floyd Estate .................................................................................................................... 27 Description of Resource and Value ......................................................................................... 27 Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................ 27 Adaptive Capacity ................................................................................................................... 29 Relationship of Vulnerability to Adaptive Capacity ............................................................... 29 Recommendations ................................................................................................................... 31 Integration of Scoring across Program Areas ...................................................................................... 33 Cultural Resources ............................................................................................................................... 35 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................... 35 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................. 35 Archeological Sites .................................................................................................................. 39 Historic Structures ................................................................................................................... 39 Museum Collections ................................................................................................................ 39 Cultural Landscapes ...............................................................................................................