Clemson Universi 3 1604 020 870 392 A TIME LINE: 2014 U __,,._ INIAN REVOLUTION RUSSIA ANNEXES CRIMEA, APART OF THE U ......... INE RUSSIA SUPPORTS PR -----.c- USSIAN SEP .&...A. TISTS IN EASTERN _____ INE WITH MILITARY ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE THE BEG ING OF COLD WAR II by Clinton H. Whitehurst, Jr. Emeritus Professor ofManagement and Economics and Senior Fellow, Strom Thurmond Institute Clemson University Clemson, South Carolina September 2015 .,_ _ · q Ll l •.- . ~ . 0 . J.~; -- L_~1,' l _ ~ . ,. , _,,,c, ~..,, r= L,,--' i '.~ '~ ~ . ,:::," ' ( r•" , I .- ~ :;.,•"•.>' ~ --L. - • r-, ~ ~ - - i 1 '~ I• ~ ,-. > -~ _.. ~ f:,, '" .r, 1 . l ......,, ) ~ ~ ~· p-.. !'-I"' ::::::_._ - - .:.. :::::==~~~;.,.... • _i-- • .. L,.., ... ;. ~ % ..... I _ 'a L: .,,.._ r~ I. -~- -- - - _!."I... ... 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' D- . .. -··... ,-,, -J .,- ~- ----~-- .._,,~........ .., -•~ .. • • - "-"-,. • ·- .~... ~ DK508.852 .W45 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR ...............................................................................i PREFACE ......................................................................................................ii UKRANIAN REVOLUTION 2014 ............................................................ 1 RUSSIA ANNEXES CRIMEA: A PART OF UKRAINE ........................ 2 MARCH 2014 ............................................................................................... 3 APRIL 2014 ................................................................................................... 4 RUSSIA SUPPORTS RUSSIAN SEPARTATISTS IN EASTERN UKRAINE WITH MILITARY AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE ......... 5 MAY 2014 ...................................................................................................... 6 JUNE 2014 ..................................................................................................... 8 JULY 2014 . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 1 0 AUGUST 2014 ............................................................................................ 12 SEPTEMBER 2014 ...................................................................................... 13 0 CTOBER 2014 . .. .. .. .. 15 NOVEMBER 2014 ...................................................................................... 16 DECEMBER 2014 ....................................................................................... 18 JANUARY 2015 . .. .. .. 19 FEBRUARY 2015 ........................................................................................ 2 0 MARCH 2015 .............................................................................................. 22 APRIL 2015 ................................................................................................. 22 MAY 2015 .................................................................................................... 22 JUNE 2015 ................................................................................................... 23 JULY 2 015 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. ... .. ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. .. .. 23 AUGUST 2015 ............................................................................................ 24 SEPTEMBER 2015 ...................................................................................... 24 CONCL USI ON........................................................................................... 25 APPENDIX A-MAP UKRAINE AND CRIMEA ................................... 26 APPENDIX B-ABSTRACT CIA WORLD FACT BOOK, UKRAINE .. 27 • About the Author Clint Whitehurst holds a PhD in economics from the University of Virginia and did post-doctoral work in defense studies at Edinburgh University (Scotland). A majority of his research and publications are in the area of transportation/logistics and defense studies. He is Em.eritus Professor of Management and Econon1ics at Clemson, an Adjunct Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC and a Senior Fello-w of the Strom. Thurmond Institute of Government and Public Affairs at Clemson University . • 1 Preface This research paper traces Russia-Ukraine events.-a tin1e line-from the February 2014 "Ukraine Revolution" which deposed of Russian leaning Ukraine president, Vikor Yanukovych, to the September 2015 Ukraine proposal to grant autonomy to pro-Russia separatists living in eastern Ukraine. World reaction to these events during this period is also included. Primary research sources were the print media, which included CIA World Fact Book, The Greenville (SC) Ne-ws, Mjarni Herald, Ne-w York Times (cruise ship editions), Seneca (SC) Journal, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Secondary sources -were the broadcast and cable ne-ws channels. News stories were condensed into 5-10 line exerts. When longer sources were quoted, attribution of the source was acknowledged with permission to quote the source. The timeline shows a nation ill prepared to deal with pro-Russia Ukrainians in Ukraine's eastern provinces; Ukraine separatists armed and abetted by the Russian Federation. Although mostly bad there are some bright spots over this 17-month period NATO and the UN conde:mnation of Russia's instigation and intervention in the affairs of a sovereign nation follo-wed by economic sanctions. It also alerted the West that Russia was deadly serious about expanding Russian influence Soviet style in Europe. In response NATO forces -were stationed in the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). The tim.e line also shows a people weary of war but still managing to celebrate holidays, -weddings and other social events, events taken for granted in the West. • • 11 2014 Ukrainian Revolution February 2014. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, in an attempt to improve economic conditions in the Ukraine, in particular attracts capital, proposed an association agreeinent -with the European Union (EU). Under the proposed agreement the EU would provide funds contingent on a number of economic, judicial and social reforins and at the saine tiille the Ukraine w-ould break its economic ties -with the Russian Federation. The latter (break economic ties with Russia), Yanukovych refused to do considering the condition detrimental to the Ukraine in the long term. Instead, Yanukovych signed a treaty -with Russia, w-hich infuriated the EU­ leaning population in Kiev. On February 17th Russia announced the first paylllent of a loan negotiated in 2013. It -was $2 billion of an agreed $15 billion. At the same time Russia pressured the Ukraine to crush the growing protests. On February 18 protests against the Yanukovych government became more widespread leading to violent clashes between law- enforceillent personnel and the protestors. An estiillated 80 protestors w-ere killed. On February 21st President Yanukovych signed a compromise agreement with leaders that called for constitutional changes that would restore previously lost power to the Ukrainian parlian1ent. It was too little and too late. Continuing violence, no-w a revolution caused President Yanukovych to flee to Russian speaking eastern Ukraine and ultimately to Russia. The newly appointed interim government signed the EU agreement and also promised early elections. Russia accused the European Union and the United States of encouraging the revolution, a charge that both parties denied. Funds from the International Monetary Fund -were prom.ised an essentially bankrupt interilll government contingent on the Ukraine adopting the reforms proposed by the EU. Russia refused to recognize the interim government calling the revolution a coup d'etat. Primary source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 1 . Russia Annexes Crimea: A Part of Ukraine The removal of Viktor Yanukovych as President of the Ukraine can fairly be called the beginning of the Crimea crisis. On February 27 unidentified forces in Crimea took the regional parliament building and the building housing the Council of Ministers. The buildings were barricaded and the Russian flag rose. Later check points were established at points separating Ukraine and Crimea. As takeover of key points and buildings continued, on the political front, separatists named Sergey Oksyonov as the Prime Minister of the Republic of Crimea. Primary source: Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 2 March 2014 *Leaders of Crimea Republic ask Vladimir Putin for assistance to insure "peace and order" on the Republic's soil. Putin requests Federation Council of Russia to use Russian armed forces in Crilllea. *Russian forces have complete control of Crimea and federal city of Sevastopol. *Putin says Russia does not consider annexing Crimea. *Supreme Council of Crim.ea sets date for referendum. on status of Crimea. President Obanta orders sanctions over Russia take over of Crintea. *Supreme Council of Crimea declares formal independence. Russian ruble official currency. Crimea will switch to Moscow time. *Ukraine signs EU trade pact. Russia criticizes. *Ukraine orders its forces in Crimea to -withdraw-. Minister of Defense announces 50 percent of Ukrainian forces in Crim.ea defect to Russian Federation. *UN General Asselllbly adopts non-binding resolution declaring the Crintea referendum.