This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu MEMORANDUM ':OOc SENATOR DOLE FR: CHIP GATELY, FUNDRAISING OlRECTOR RE: CURRENT LAY OF 'l'HE LANO IN IOWA POLITICS OT: 8 AUGUST 1990 The following is information related to the Iowa political landscape and included are s.ome clips of the first Tauke-Harkin debate as well. 1. Republican Party of Iowa. RPI has raised more money than the Democrats in Iowa and have the best staff in over 10 years under Rich Schwarm, State GOP Chairman. The Tau.ke campaiqn is currently helping the Party raise money by havinq the PACs who've "maxed out" to Congressman Tauke 1 s campaign contribute to the State. The Democrats are beginninq to get big checks in the $20,000 to $50,000 range from PACs that are closely tied to Harkin (like Occidental Petroleum).. We suspect that we will need to pump even more money into the state party than oriqinally planned. 2. Branstad/Avenson Campaiqn. Incumbent Republican Governor Terry Branstad has maintained a comfortable 11 point lead over State Speaker Don Avenson according to the latest Des MOines Register poll ( B/5/90). This poll shows that Avenson has only picked up one point since the last poll. At this point it looks that Iowa might see only the second Governor in its history to serve for the maximum of 12 years (Governor Robert Ray was the first). On the downside, however, the Governor has fallen below 50% support in the most recent Regi.ster poll. With over $1. 3 million in the bank, and Roger Ailes standing by, the GOvernor seems in good pqsition. J. 2nd Congressional Race. Republican Jim Nussle of Dubuque is running against Eric Tabor for Congressman Tauke' s Conqressional seat that Congressman Tauke has held for 11 years. Nussle, a Delaware County attorney, is funding his campaign, like Congressman Tauke, with Iowa money. 4. Special Request. The one thing we would like Senator DOle to say, especially with the press, is that Iowa will retain a seat on the Agriculture Committee. ~ - • . Page 1 of 29 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu \. ·...... - . .,.\ -- IEWS AULYSIS . · _, .. --,---·-· ··-.. -..... __ ·-.... Page 2 of 29 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu ~PINION Mo&G AJ:~Iowa ·campaigp,s taking the high roa1 ' . : . : . • . 1 • . OULD WE BE headed toward some lDOthet' tu.SOD it is da.o(erous to~ the nm : high·road campaigns In Iowa in 1990? DAVID YEPSEN .., ·· · 100dayseanbeanentirely• positiYelltralr. · \, · CThere are some positive signs. · •Campaign adYilers for candidates on baCh · fnsidets' fot both Hartin 8nd Tauke 58>' the i · sides 5ay their polls and focus groups are sq- · -- Capi·t· ·1 nm clebale will baVti • much more future.ori. : ing people wretch at negative campaigns. As · ·•0 . ·D . 0 ~ eoted spin to it Thue soay be some wbQ enjoy \ Toin Harlan's campaign manager.Tun Raftis. ; · : . '· ·· · Hill ~ ~the ~ugressional Recwd, l?ut ~e· : · puts ir: "There will be a price to pay" foe a can- .•.. · · · · · gistl lllboth camps c:oncede each ~e ; didate who decides 10 mort to penonal or dis- · · ·' - · iot bogged down 11itl\ it a bit In tbe first : torted an;.cks this year. go-tOWld. • · · . : •The willingness of both Harkin and Tom The~ topic:..:.. abortiQn and~ policy : Tauke to agree to debates so early in the aml· ' · · ;....:. wjlJ be better because it ha.s more direct paign is also evidence of a desire for a more . ~ tO people th,n does toteign policy or positive campaign Ulan earlier predicted. Nei· paigN go to elaborate lengths_to keep from the~modeoftheMXmissile. tber believes they need to go negatift to win. beingcaught. .... · . · · · AISo, look for both 1D be talking a Jot about They both believe their messages and views· · Groups like the National Abortion' ~ ·· helping children beQuse being "pro.kid" will · are the ones that have the most appeal. ·; Action~. the Iowa~ Action C91m- ·· . be a W1fJ for both to look modenlte and 90ften The same with Tenr Branstad and Don cil.orthe.NationalRUleAuociationhlvebeeu · ·fueitpositionsooabottion. Avenson who are negotiating their~ ar· known to lawich mean. distorted attacks · ~ is &t10tber problem with arguments .• rangementsnow. · agaiost candidates theye>pp<Me and want to ' ·cM!rwhovotedforwbatameitdmentlixyears ! • Evidenee of a different tone can be seen trash. So if Tauke needs to chuck a .5J)eV at · . ago. Those votts ·ca.D become irrelevant u a : when compared to odler races. By tbis stage in· Harkin, be gets ·one ofl!lose groups to do his · ·fiide to future performance in roday's chang- ; both the 1982 and 1986 races for governor, · dirtf work for him aod lice versa: Some of ' ,world. , : Branstad and the Republicans bad·bashed Avenson's key Slaffen lllld supporters ~ .C-: · or example, neither Harkin or Taulce could ; away at. Roxarme Conlin and I..awell JuakiAS, tiveintheabortfon..riChtSmovemcnt. · · ·· · · be~ to.vote the·same way on inilitacy : effectively knocking them out·of the race· It Is time to end the c:barade about UldepeD- · spending as they did prior to the fall of the, .•. before theycoukigeton their feet forthe fall. dent expendlture groups. If they start throwing Berlin Wall and the collapse of <X>IDmvnism. ' Even thwgh Branstad is iii a tough.race in ~~ it will be as gQOd. as a~ I~ do- ,..- 1990, he is trying to my on a positive track. He -"""' d~peratel)' .needs apositiYewin, some<hlng he The sleazy track record of~ groups is can call a mandate, to have a mote SUCCt!SSful- · ·· · ·.;..,,,.;..._: governorship in tbe futiire. • Both of the challengers this •year - Avenson ~ Tauke-don't think they baYe to trash the oppooents to ~t themselves as altemafutes to the ina.lmbents. Given the weak Ieam of Tom Harkin and B~ - and the · anti-ina.lmbent sentiaienis around t)\t elector· · ate - they may be carrect and _will not haw to resort to attack adve~ to reduce the.ad- vantages~ usually haft. -. • Evidence of voter dililike of nepti¥e cam· . paigning. or at least the inetrecliveDesl of it, coi.nes from John Chtystal's campaign in the. primary. He Wll5 the onJy candidate to employ such attack advertising. He finished in third place. .· . He went negame because be WU gdtUlg • ·desperate and that is the reason cbe 1990 cam· . Tbis has to be sicnifk:aat: Aa:ording to the paign could stilfget n.uty. Iowa Poll, the typical !bnsra.d voter owns 8 · Come early October, IQC!lt caNfic!etes may pairs of shoes. An Avem<m .voter owna six. feel they have nothing to lo:;e. Harkin and Taw vocen each ~Y they OWJi i ' . sewn. They'll reason that ~ negative "works" ' and is the""ore ~ed. (It but wheth- wom ... ..." - -· ...... er one think5 it i$ justified probably <:oincides . with ones views of V!'~r, ~of cMm.ical : · "• .. weapons ili justified.) . · · · . · . ·... .... __ ___ _ . ·- ····----- .-.• -- -- . It really doesn't work. P~ are lo:ii.ng . -.. _ -----.... theil' ability to govern and lead as a result of negative campt1ign$. Voten are s0 5ic:k of poli- tiC$ llnd ~ that leaden hal't dil'!iclltty . ~rsuadi.ng voters to do anything or change course. All politiciam are seen as liars. George Bush didn't help the trade with his.revenal ~ "read my Ups, N ·, . The danger of negative• campaigning IS more likely tQ coirie from "indepe~nt expendi- ture" group1 who supposedl)r ~ outside the campaigns. They really ck>n't, but the cam· · Page 3 of 29 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu -KJ~· ·. ~ I(~ .. I \ .. .. ,.:.::-.-- ~ _____. ~ . .. .......- ·· ~ · ·· . •· ........ __ .. ... -. ,- • o': ~- - ' ... ' Page 4 of 29 This document is from the collections at the Dole Archives, University of Kansas http://dolearchives.ku.edu . _i ----~- - -~ · -- .... Harkin, Tauke trade· ct1irges - Drake professor ~7( }6 says 1st debate was a draw ltI•Jn IlrC!Jim![•iMI•Z!D1'mlJl!lllltlml · -.---- - .. ····- ··-· ' ···-- ·-· ---- · ···---.... -- .. ----·-'"- --··---------. ---·-· ------ ·· ~. ·~-.-~· ··. ·-· · ,.· "- · --1 - - - ------ --- - · -- ~ - _-::! ., .. Debate: 'Read his lips'; 1Check yOt.Jr facts' • From page 1A • ·· 1 ·"' ·· .... Harkin told reportera ·aftet" c;ani &eedled like a pnident Jll.'Oll'lllQ that baa had tom11 .... tha debate that he ~ble4 idea. Ha said bl bu aJ.nce abuses bill wb1cll ia naven.ti.; · Iowa'• sli.an . Qf federal 4rUC cbanpd l:Ua ant.nil OQ that COD· ' less valid. Jiarkln said. Tauke -- money In the 1lr&t year be i;ept. ~ ·· lw opposed the prosram. said':.' headed his budget subc:oinmi&- ''Tom. you fora« to check ' Harkin. ... , tee. yow- facts... Tauke. abot at ' "lC )'(1\1 want to set into tb.1' .. .. • Harltin attacked we of Hark.In when Harkin cbaraecl · money thins. we can talk about Tauke's c:encral themes - that 1-~ Witb INf)portinc the MX : th1s all ni.cht." Harkin Ulld '::_ · he hat been a )Qngtime roe of m.lss.Ue. · . Tauke when 'l'allile kept re.:: . - mWtary 11pending - b)' chart- . "I Just don't think that'a a twning to the que,,tlon o{,... · Ina that 1'auk.e voted to depl~ very brlib.t idea," Tauke eaicl , wnpalgn finances. ... : .· tbe MX missile. · wheQ Haridn•suaested wiirli • The Sen.ate race prom1Se1 to · .. AU l can say is. 'Don't read. troops to brine LatUi American be the moct expenslYe 1n IOW& .~. his l.lpa. Read ·hit record.'• drug ldncPlnl to the United ·history, with the candid.a•.:. Harkin said of his ewonent. St.ta · . , ~a total of $1l million,,, Tiiuke told reporters a.Iler Taub has palnt9!1 Haricin as · - $6 milllon for Harkin, $5 the debate that Harkin !wt · a liberal Wg spender who ls O\lt million for Tauke.