DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PIRACY 1996 to 2013 : THE EVOLUTION OF SOMALI PIRACY by Keunsoo Jeong B.A. in Sociology, Sungkyunkwan University, 1993. M.A. in Sociology, New School for Social Research, 1997. Master of Public and International Affairs. University of Pittsburgh, 2008. Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in Foreign and Security Policy University of Pittsburgh 2017 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This dissertation was presented by Keunsoo Jeong It was defended on March 17, 2017 and approved by Phil Williams, PhD, Professor William N. Dunn, PhD, Professor Michael Kenney, PhD, Associate Professor Charles S. Gochman, PhD, Associate Professor Dissertation Advisor: Phil Williams, PhD, Professor ii Copyright © by Keunsoo Jeong 2017 iii DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL PIRACY 1996 to 2013 : THE EVOLUTION OF SOMALI PIRACY Keunsoo Jeong, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2017 In an attempt to provide a comprehensive explanation of Somali piracy, this study investigates not only a wide range of piracy issues from both historical and regional perspectives, but also the deeper context of Somali piracy as a particular regional phenomenon. This study adopts a multimethod research. It uses a quantitative approach as a nested framework for a comprehensive qualitative analysis. A process-tracing method based on classification and congruence techniques was then applied to construct a causal mechanism model, which helped to discover how the relevant factors worked together to produce Somali piracy. This study identifies and traces five evolutionary stages of Somali piracy from its genesis to its demise. Then, this study provides an evolutionary causal model to explain the complex dynamics of Somali piracy. This study explicitly argues that the full development of Somali piracy led to establishing a symbiosis with local governance and community through an embeddedness of crime. This study also discovers interesting and synchronizing trends among militia groups, including Al-Shabaab and the Somali pirate organizations. It finds that the synchronizing trend is inherently related to local state formations. Consequently, the linkage supports the main argument of this study that Somali piracy is a salient reflection of regional power dynamics with regard to state reformation processes. It also denotes the limits of Somali piracy that have resulted in its decay since 2011. This study leads to several conclusions. First, piracy is an inherently ambiguous issue since it transgresses conventional security boundaries based on the Westphalian concepts of state. Second, piracy is a salient manifestation of complex dynamics among diverse factors with regard to the state reformation process in Somalia. Third, it is necessary to build a causal mechanism consisting of multiple factors at various levels to overcome the limitations of previous studies. This causal model approach can be extended to other examples of regional piracy. Finally, sound policy-making should consider regional contexts as well as the dynamics of the multiple factors that have shaped Somali piracy. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 2.0 WORLD PIRACY: PAST AND PRESENT .............................................................. 7 2.1 PIRACY IN HISTORY ............................................................................................... 7 2.2 CONTEMPORARY PIRACY .................................................................................. 10 2.3 DIVERSE PATTERNS OF REGIONAL PIRACY ................................................ 17 2.4 LIMITS OF COUNTER-PIRACY MEASURES .................................................... 27 3.0 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS ................................................................ 34 3.1 QUANTITATIVE METHO ...................................................................................... 35 3.2 QUALITATIVE METHODS .................................................................................... 42 3.3 CONSTRUCTION OF A CAUSAL MECHANISM MODEL .............................. 50 4.0 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 57 4.1 LITERATURE REVIEW OF PIRACY AND CAUSES ........................................ 57 4.2 LIMITS OF EXISTING STUDIES .......................................................................... 63 5.0 ACTUAL CAUSES OF CONTEMPORARY PIRACY AND ALTERNATIVES .......... 68 5.1 PATTERNS OF WORLD PIRACY ......................................................................... 68 5.2 ANALYSIS FROM LOGISTIC REGRESSION TESTS ....................................... 73 5.3 ALTERNATIVES FOR A COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH ............................ 82 v 6.0 THE EVOLUTION OF SOMALI PIRACY ........................................................... 87 6.1 FIVE EVOLUTIONARY STAGES OF SOMALI PIRACY ................................. 87 6.2 SUMMARY OF THE EVOLUTIONARY STAGES OF SOMALI PIRACY ... 149 7.0 EVOLUTIONARY CAUSAL FACTORS ............................................................. 155 7.1 CHANGING CIRCUMSTANCES AT THE GLOBAL LEVEL ........................ 155 7.2 POWER RIVALRY AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL ............................................ 157 7.3 STATE COLLAPSE AND AUTHORITY CRISIS AT THE STATE LEVEL .. 159 7.4 GOVERNANCE CRISIS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL ........................................... 163 7.5 THE COASTAL DEFENDER ROLE .................................................................... 166 7.6 EMBEDDEDNESS OF CRIME IN LOCAL COMMUNITIES .......................... 168 7.7 CRIMINAL STARTUP BY A VIOLENT ENTREPRENEUR ........................... 173 7.8 CAPACITY BUILDING AND ORGANIZATIONAL EVOLUTION ............... 177 7.8.1 Development of Organizational Capacity .................................................. 178 7.8.2 Evolution of Financial Capacity .................................................................. 180 7.8.3 Network Capacity ......................................................................................... 182 7.8.4 Sub-Facilitators ............................................................................................. 185 8.0 DYNAMICS OF SOMALI PIRACY ..................................................................... 190 8.1 EVOLUTIONARY CAUSAL MECHANISM ...................................................... 190 8.2 FULL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOMALI PIRACY ENTERPRISE ............ 193 8.3 COMPLEX ARCHITECTURE AND DYNAMICS ............................................. 197 8.4 EVOLVING RELATIONS WITH MILITIA GROUPS ...................................... 205 8.5 LIMITS OF SOMALI PIRACY ............................................................................. 208 9.0 IMPLICATIONS OF SOMALI PIRACY ............................................................. 215 vi 9.1 POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS: RE-UNDERSTANDING SOMALI PIRACY ........... 215 9.2 POLICY IMPLICATIONS ..................................................................................... 219 10.0 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 226 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................... 230 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................... 272 SOURCE FOR INCIDENT PROFILES ................................................................................ 291 ENDNOTES............................................................................................................................... 301 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Comparison between Ancient and Contemporary piracy ............................................... 17 Table 2. Comparative Table of Different Piracy Incidents by Regions ........................................ 27 Table 3. Comparison of Counter Piracy Measures by Regions .................................................... 32 Table 4. Cross correlation table for Somalia ................................................................................ 71 Table 5. Cross correlation table for Nigeria .................................................................................. 72 Table 6. Cross correlation table for Indonesia .............................................................................. 72 Table 7.1. Results of Logit analysis for the 18 year term: Model A ............................................. 75 Table 7.2. Results of Logit analysis for the 18 year term: Model B ............................................. 77 Table 8. Stage 1 Frequency Features ............................................................................................ 88 Table 9. Features of Stage 1: 1991-1995 .................................................................................... 90 Table 10. Piracy Trends in East Africa in the Second Stage ........................................................ 91 Table 11. Features of Stage 2: 1996-2004 .................................................................................. 94 Table 12. Piracy Trends in East Africa in the Third Stage ........................................................... 98 Table 13. Features of Stage 3: 2005-2007 ...............................................................................