PRESSURES, PROMISES, AND PAYMENTS: EXPLAINING GOVERNMENTS’ REPARATIONS DECISIONS AFTER DOMESTIC HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES Claire Greenstein A dissertation submitted to the faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the College of Arts and Sciences. Chapel Hill 2018 Approved by: Milada A. Vachudova John D. Stephens Liesbet Hooghe Cameron Ballard-Rosa Graeme B. Robertson © 2018 Claire Greenstein ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT Claire Greenstein: Pressures, Promises, and Payments: Explaining Governments’ Reparations Decisions after Domestic Human Rights Abuses (Under the direction of Milada A. Vachudova) After governments commit human rights abuses against their own citizens, what motivates those governments (or their successors) to promise and pay reparations? In this dissertation, I combine insights from the literatures on transitional justice, democratization, and social movements to create the first generalizable theory explaining the motivations behind governments’ reparations decisions. I argue that governments promise and pay reparations due to the efforts of strong, pro-reparations victims’ rights organizations. I use a mixed-methods approach to support this argument. In Chapter 1, I introduce my theory about why governments promise and pay reparations to domestic victims of severe, government-sanctioned human rights abuses. In Chapter 2, I provide quantitative evidence for my argument by analyzing my original dataset on reparations promises and payments. This dataset records the domestic reparations outcomes for 180 cases of internal conflicts and dictatorships in Europe, Latin America, and Central Asia from 1939 to 2006. Using this data, I find that strength of pro-reparations victims’ organizations has a meaningful and statistically significant influence on reparations outcomes. Chapters 3-5 consist of three separate qualitative case studies that allow me to process-trace governments’ reparations decisions over time. In these chapters, I present qualitative data that I gathered in fieldwork conducted in Germany and Peru from 2015 to 2017 to examine the motivations behind the West German government’s reparations promises and payments to Jewish German citizens after the iii Holocaust, the West German government’s reparations promises and payments to Romani German citizens after WWII, and the Peruvian government’s reparations promises and payments to Peruvian citizens who were harmed in Peru’s 1980-2000 Armed Internal Conflict. Drawing on personal interviews, archival documents, primary sources, and selected secondary literature, I show that the efforts of victims’ organizations are the central factor in explaining the reparations outcomes in my three case studies. iv To Mom, who always knew just what to say and who gave me permission to do this when I wasn’t sure the timing was right; to Dad, who made a daunting task seem easier; to Seth, who is the best roommate and the best travel buddy; and to Paul, who always believes in me. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I could not have completed this dissertation without the invaluable help, advice, support, and generosity of a long list of people. Thank you to my wonderful advisor, Milada, who has a knack for distilling even my messiest thoughts into clear ideas and who somehow ensures that I leave meetings with her feeling heartened and capable of taking the next step. I simply could not have asked for a better advisor. Thank you to John Stephens, who has been a kind and steady source of support and advice since my very first year of grad school. Thank you to Liesbet Hooghe, whose prompt, insightful feedback always makes my work better. Thank you to Cameron Ballard-Rosa, who always gives helpful and practical suggestions, and who spent a great deal of time guiding me through countless iterations of the quantitative and theoretical portions of this dissertation. Thank you to Graeme Robertson, whose thoughtful and timely advice on creating my own dataset made the later stages of this project go much more smoothly. And thank you to Tom Carsey, who—with trademark patience and humor—helped me get this project off the ground and gave me the methodological foundation I needed to move it forward. Thank you to all of my interviewees, who were extremely generous with their time, expertise, and resources. I genuinely could not have done this project without you. The interview process was an absolute highlight of my research, and I know that I am truly lucky to have been able to speak with each and every one of you. Thank you for sharing your stories, knowledge, advice, books, and, in one memorable case, an umbrella with me. It was such a gift to get to talk to so many exceptional, thoughtful people who were so willing to discuss their work and experiences, particularly given the difficult subject matter. Even if you are not directly cited, vi your thoughts and insights shaped this project indelibly. I hope I did you credit in this dissertation and that the following chapters make it clear how much I respect your work and the experiences you shared with me. I also benefited from the expertise, encouragement, and advice of brilliant academics who were not at UNC. I can’t say enough good things about Karin Goihl, who has my deepest thanks and who made all of my European research possible. She runs the fabulous Berlin Program for Advanced German and European Studies at the Free University of Berlin with grace and enthusiasm, and I count myself lucky to know her. Thank you to Jelena Subotić for offering insightful feedback on various segments of this project at workshops and conferences. Thank you to Monika Nalepa for reading my early attempts at formal modeling, for giving constructive feedback, and for continuing to encourage me. Mike Bressler has had faith in me from day one (or perhaps two, although that’s my own fault; freshmen who need directions to your classroom don’t generally inspire confidence). He has been extraordinarily supportive through all sorts of ups and downs, and he will always be my teaching role model. Thank you to Kathy Powers for showing me that it was okay for political scientists to study reparations, for being a generous and encouraging academic role model, and for writing an article that I will always return to. I idolized Kathy long before I met her, and somehow she is even more wonderful in person. I owe a huge thank you to grad school colleagues (and friends!), too. Comparative Working Group offered valuable feedback on various drafts. My professors provided excellent training; thank you for making it possible for me to pursue this career. Santiago Anria helped me find my footing in grad school and mentored me on everything from picking classes to writing a prospectus. Martin Caver was the right person at the right time; thank you for the tennis, pizza, foreign films, and friendship. Paula Mukherjee helped me get excited about being a teaching vii assistant and generously shared her teaching expertise. Jelle Koedam read multiple drafts, offered clear feedback, and staunchly supported this project as one that was worth pursuing. Leah Christiani helped me stay on track in the summers and let me talk things through with (and at) her. In addition to opening my eyes to new ideas and alternative points of view, Tamar Malloy gave me excellent feedback and even better pep talks. I was lucky to have Cole Harvey in my cohort; I admire him as both a scholar and a person, and I am grateful to him for his suggestions and support. Bilyana Petrova explored multiple continents with me, made Peru lots more fun, helped me stay caffeinated, and gave generously of her time and expertise to help this dissertation take shape. Phi Sử is a peer role model of mine for numerous reasons, and I thank her for improving my work, helping me think beyond my discipline, and being my Berlin buddy. I will forever be grateful to Kate Moore for her easy, honest, and unconditional friendship. Her deep thoughts and uncanny ability to read me like a book lifted the quality of my scholarship as well as my spirits. Lars Stiglich talked books and German with me and made things more fun. Katie Aha has my eternal thanks for letting me bounce thoughts off her, reading drafts carefully and quickly, and laughing with me about all sorts of things. Thank you to non-grad school friends who cheered me on and helped me remember there is a world outside of academia. There are so many wonderful people in my life that I simply can’t thank all of you by name, but if you’re reading these words, then yes, I mean you. To all of these people, and to many more who were not mentioned individually, you have my sincere gratitude. Thank you. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………xii LIST OF FIGURES……………………………………………………………………………..xiii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………………...xiv INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………...1 CHAPTER 1: THEORY…………………………………………………………………………16 1. Transitional Justice Literature………………………………………………………..22 2. Democratization Literature…………………………………………………………..25 3. A Note on Victims…………………………………………………………………...29 4. Social Movement Literature…………………………………………………………34 a. Resource Mobilization Theory………………………………………………35 b. Political Opportunity Structure………………………………………………40 5. Reparations Theory…………………………………………………………………..45 CHAPTER 2: WHEN SURVIVORS SPEAK UP: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC REPARATIONS PAYMENTS………………………….49 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..49