Quantum Technology and Submarine Near-Invulnerability GLOBAL SECURITY POLICY BRIEF Katarzyna Kubiak December 2020 The European Leadership Network (ELN) is an independent, non-partisan, pan-European network of nearly 200 past, present and future European leaders working to provide practical real-world solutions to political and security challenges. About the author Dr Katarzyna Kubiak is a Senior Policy Fellow on nuclear and arms control policy at the ELN. Previously, she was a Transatlantic Post-Doc Fellow for International Relations and Security at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS), an associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a research assistant at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), a field researcher for the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) and a fellow in the German Bundestag. Following her PhD thesis on NATO nuclear extended deterrence her research areas include nuclear arms control and disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation as well as ballistic missile defense. The author is grateful for conversations with and/or commentary on earlier drafts of this report by Prof. Angelo Bassi, Prof. Kai Bongs, Admiral Lord Michael Boyce, Prof. Dr. Tommaso Calarco, Rear Admiral John Gower, Dr Michal Krelina, Bruno Leone, Dr Jarosław Miszczak, Prof. Mauro Paternostro, Andreas Persbo, Admiral Lord Alan West, Dr. Eric Wille, Dr hab. Michał Zawada. Published by the European Leadership Network, December 2020 European Leadership Network (ELN) 8 St James’s Square London, UK, SE1Y 4JU @theELN europeanleadershipnetwork.org Published under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 © The ELN 2020 The opinions articulated in this report represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Leadership Network or any of its members. The ELN’s aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe’s capacity to address pressing foreign, defence, and security challenges. Introduction “Although quantum technology has not This paper looks at how quantum made it into broad technology applications might affect public security nuclear weapon capable submarines debates, it is vital (SSBN) near-invulnerability. Could sophisticated means of surveillance to now have a detect and track submarines in an conversation on its unprecedented manner and diminish possible impact on their status as nearly invisible and thus security and defence, invulnerable in the open ocean? especially on nuclear weapons.” For most of us, quantum technology is a spooky matter. “Schroedinger’s” cat, dead and alive at the same time, is merely a native of science fiction with The race is on no resemblance to the kitten purring on our couch. Impossible to hack, quantum The first quantum revolution resulted communication or quantum computers from building applications that followed that could solve problems traditional the rules of quantum mechanics. It devices cannot, are only few of the brought inventions such as nuclear many applications quantum technology energy, transistors, computer chips, promises. This fantasy-like futurism digital cameras, lasers or magnetic increasingly makes up for the fog of resonance, transforming entire the future. In fact, the quantum race is societies, not to mention the conduct of 1 already on, but we can tell neither its war. consequences nor who will win it. We are currently facing a second Although quantum technology has quantum revolution based on the ability not made it into broad public security to precisely control the rules governing 2 debates, it is vital to now have a quantum mechanics. Manipulating conversation on its possible impact single quantum objects and using on security and defence, especially quantum phenomena like entanglement on nuclear weapons. Such debate or superposition, quantum mechanics is imperative to designing sound is finding its way into communication, nuclear deterrence doctrines and force computing, sensing and precision postures, predicting possible risks and (positioning, navigating, timing). shaping risk reduction and arms control measures. 1 The ELN / Quantum Technology and Submarine Near-Invulnerability “The NATO Science without GPS, to name but few. At & Technology the same time, experts suspect that Organization called quantum communication could disrupt the process of authenticating codes security and military used to control nuclear weapons,10 applications of quantum computing could “render quantum technologies nuclear secrets un-securable,”11 and one of the “major quantum radars could discern through 12 strategic disruptors stealth mode. over the next Technological readiness differs 20-years.” from application to application – not to mention from estimation to estimation. The biggest obstacles to In addition to applications in the the development of quantum-based commercial sector,3 Quantum 2.0 applications are aligning technology also promises to become a “game- with end-user needs, reducing the size, changing differentiator”4 in defence weight and power consumption of and security.5 For instance, the NATO enabling technologies, reducing and Science & Technology Organization surpressing hardware errors, correcting called security and military applications background noise, developing the of quantum technologies one of the quantum repeaters necessary for long- “major strategic disruptors over the next distance communication and increasing 20-years.”6 Gary Aitkenhead, the Chief the number, quality and circuit depth of Executive of the UK’s Defence Science qubits in quantum computers. and Technology Laboratory, argued that quantum technology will be “a game- Yet because quantum R&D is the changer for defence and society”.7 new gold mine, it is only a matter Finally, according to Robert Ashley, of time until we overcome some of Director of the US Defense Intelligence these obstacles. China has already Agency, quantum technology will “figure funded multi-billion National Quantum prominently in future warfare.”8 Laboratories13 to develop quantum- based technology applications for Prospective security and military “immediate use to the Chinese armed advancements will likely include forces”, possibly including targeting improved underwater detection of stealthy submarines.14 Washington non-spherical submerged objects, invests $1.2 billion15 to “accelerate understanding building structures from quantum research and development for the outside, detection of underground the economic and national security of tunnels and bunkers or even fissile the United States.”16 The UK invested materials9 or improving navigation £1 billion to “secure the UK’s status as 2 The ELN / Quantum Technology and Submarine Near-Invulnerability a world leader in quantum science and “Recent political technologies.”17 The EU funds the €1 debates on submarine billion Quantum Technologies Flagship replacement, to “place Europe at the forefront of the second quantum revolution, bringing procurement and transformative advances to science, programs – especially industry and society.”18 Other precursor in the UK – have states include Australia, Austria, reignited old concerns Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Japan, on the possibility of the Netherlands, Russia, Singapore, technology making South Korea and Switzerland.19 And the quantum gold rush goes well beyond oceans “transparent”. governmental funding.20 The concern of epitome of strategic stability.25 They are meant to be a relatively undetectable, transparent oceans near-invulnerable capability with little potential for escalation. Although Recent political debates on submarine submarine survivability was never replacement, procurement and universal,26 because of how hard it is to programs – especially in the UK – have detect, track and target them, enemies reignited old concerns on the possibility are considered less likely to strike a of technology making oceans nuclear attack first knowing that they 21 “transparent”. Indeed, scientific would suffer retaliation from a hidden advances in understanding ocean submarine. environments and the emergence of new technologies related to sensing, Second, the United States, Russia, the communication, computation, data UK, China and India currently spend high processing etc. make the expectation amounts of money modernizing old or of a higher degree of transparency building new nuclear weapon capable compelling again. But whether progress submarines to serve them for decades in relevant areas will leave undersea ahead.27 They need to ensure that deterrents relatively unchallenged,22 developments in new technologies will lead to “selective ocean transparency”23 not endanger their investments and the or likely make them fully transparent,24 status quo of SSBN near-invulnerability. is a highly contested debate. It is worth examining some of the Understanding whether and how terms and concepts at the heart of this advancements will impact nuclear debate; notably, the term “transparent submarines is important for two oceans”. It indicates that oceans are reasons. First, submarines serve as the either transparent or not. In reality, they 3 The ELN / Quantum Technology and Submarine Near-Invulnerability “A higher degree of constantly develop measures to transparency might counter novel technologies.28 But they be destabilising if may also, however, perceive a loss of this particular nuclear capability and try it would undermine to counter it. the foundations of contemporary nuclear