Knysna 2020 KNYSNA: AT A GLANCE Demographics……………………………………………………………………….. 4 Education ………………………………………………………………………..…… 6 Health………………………………………………………………………………….. 8 Poverty…………………………………………………………………………………. 10 Basic Service Delivery……………………………………………………………….. 12 Safety and Security………………………………………………………………….. 14 Economy and Labour Market Performance……………..…………………..... 16 Public Infrastructure Spend………………………………………………………..... 18 SOURCES 20 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 2 Knysna: At a Glance Population Estimates, 2018; Actual households, 2019 74 979 16 459 2019 2018 Matric Pass Rate 83.8% Gini Coefficient 0.64 Learner Retention Rate 51.2% Human Development Index 0.75 Learner-Teacher Ratio 30.3 2019 9 62.3% 0.0 11.7 Actual number of reported cases in 2019/20 712 331 731 28 140 Percentage of households with access to basic services, 2019 94.4% 93.0% 88.3% 75.4% 72.4% 2019/20 2019 Unemployment Rate COVID-19 11 (narrow definition) Low Economic Growth 19.0% 15 Governance Failures Contribution to GDP, 2018 Finance, insurance, real estate and Wholesale & retail trade, catering and General government business services accommodation 24.6% 18.9% 12.1% 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 3 KNYSNA DEMOGRAPHICS 52% 48% Population per km² 0 – 10 11 – 20 21 – 30 31 – 40 41 - 50 50+ Number of males per 100 females 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Kannaland 87.5 87.5 87.4 87.3 87.2 74 979 Hessequa 88.4 88.7 88.7 88.7 88.8 Current Population Mossel Bay 90.4 90.7 90.7 90.7 90.7 George 93.1 93.7 94.0 94.2 94.5 Oudtshoorn 88.0 88.5 88.6 88.8 88.9 Bitou 95.2 95.9 96.2 96.5 96.8 Knysna 93.0 93.5 93.7 93.9 94.0 78 146 2024 Garden Route District 91.5 92.0 92.2 92.4 92.6 Estimated Population Household size Population growth 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2020 3.2 1.1% 2021 3.2 2022 3.2 2023 3.1 2024 3.1 2021 2022 2023 2024 Age cohorts Population growth 2020 – 2024 Garden Route District +0.8% Bitou +3.1% Children: Working Age: Aged Dependency 0-14 Years 15-65 Years 65+ Years Ratio George +1.2% 2020 18 762 49 219 6 997 52.3 Knysna +0.9% Mossel Bay +0.7% 2023 19 024 51 128 7 226 51.3 Hessequa -0.3% 2026 19 510 52 295 7 666 52.0 Oudtshoorn -0.9% +0.7% +1.0% +1.5% 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality Kannaland -1.9% 4 Demographics Population The population of Knysna is 74 979 people in 2020, making it the fourth smallest population in the GRD after Bitou, Hessequa and Kannaland. This total is expected to grow to 78 146 by 2024, equating to an average annual growth rate of 1.0 per cent. Sex Ratio The overall sex ratio (SR) depicts the number of males per 100 females in the population. The data indicates that there are slightly more females than males in the Knysna municipal area with a ratio of 52 per cent (females) to 48 per cent (males). The SR for Knysna increases slightly year on year towards 2024 which could be attributed to a wide range of factors such as an increase in female mortality rates as well as the potential inflow of working males to the municipal area. Age Cohorts Between 2020 and 2026, the largest population growth was recorded in the 65+ aged cohort which grew at an annual average rate of 1.5 per cent. This predicted growth rate increases the dependency ratio towards 2025. Household sizes Household size refers to the number of people per household. The actual size of households is on a downward trend from 3.2 people per household in 2020 to 3.1 in 2024. Contributing factors to a stagnation in household size growth could include, but are not limited to, lower fertility rates, occurrences of divorce, ageing population, etc. Population density Amidst rapid urbanisation across the Western Cape, population density figures will aid public sector decision makers to mitigate environmental, individual health and service delivery risks. In 2020, the population density of the Garden Route District (GRD) was 27 persons per square kilometre. In order of highest to lowest, the various local municipal areas in the GRD compare as follows: • Bitou 68 people/km2 • Knysna 68 people/km2 • Mossel Bay 47 people/km2 • George 42 people/km2 • Oudtshoorn 26 people/km2 • Hessequa 9 people/km2 • Kannaland 5 people/km2 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 5 Educational EDUCATION facilities 19 Learner enrolment Number of 120 000 schools 100 000 80 000 60 000 15 40 000 Number of 20 000 no-fee 0 schools Garden Hesseq Kannal Mossel Oudtsh Bitou George Knysna Route ua and Bay oorn 2017 104 500 8041 35441 8706 4679 12326 16650 18657 2018 106 289 8376 36174 8682 4749 12513 16986 18809 2019 107 367 8508 36688 8618 4718 12668 17399 18768 Learner-Teacher Number of schools Ratio 14 with libraries Garden Route 29.2 | 30.1 | 30.1 Bitou 30.4 | 32.2 | 32.3 George 28.9 | 29.9 | 29.6 Hessequa 27.7 | 28.6 | 28.9 Education Kannaland 28.3 | 31.4 | 31.6 31.2 | 30.0 | 30.3 outcomes Knysna Mossel Bay 28.4 | 30.2 | 29.7 Oudtshoorn 29.6 | 30.0 | 29.7 80.1 82.2 87.3 Oudtshoorn 83.5 83.1 84.7 Mossel Bay 72.4% 77.1% 83.8% Knysna Learner retention 89.2% 85.6% 85.9% Kannaland 67.6% Garden Route 87.4% 84.7% 91.5% 65.3% 62.9% Hessequa Bitou 56.8% 83.7% 79.9% 82.0% 55.5% George George 52.4% 73.0% 78.0% 82.2% 89.6% Hessequa 68.8% Bitou 66.8% 69.0% 82.0% 81.3% 85.1% Kannaland 64.4% 62.0% Garden Route Knysna 67.2% 59.8% 57.1% 2017 2018 2019 Mossel Bay 64.7% 59.2% 51.2% 5% Oudtshoorn 63.5% 66.2% 73.7% 85% 85% 66.4% 67.5% 59.4% 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 6 Education Learner enrolment, the learner-teacher ratio and learner retention rate Learner enrolment in Knysna increased by 1.4 per cent annually from 2017 to 2019, the highest in the district when compared to the other municipal areas. This could be attributed to a number of factors including demographics and socio-economic context. The Knysna learner-teacher ratio remained above 30 learners from 2017 to 2019 which is high in comparison with the areas in the GRD. Learner retention in Knysna has deteriorated from 64.7 per cent in 2017 to 59.2 per cent in 2018 and lastly to 51.2 per cent in 2019. Number of schools In 2019, Knysna had a total of 19 public ordinary schools. The low number of schools in relation to high learner enrolment relative to the other areas in the district further accentuate the need for additional schools in the Knysna area. Number of no-fee schools The proportion of no-fee schools remained at 78.9 per cent from 2017 to 2019, indicating that, given the tough economic climate, schools have been reporting an increase in parents being unable to pay their school fees. In an effort to alleviate some of the funding challenges the Western Cape Department of Education (WCED) offered certain fee-paying schools to become no-fee schools. This means that more than two thirds of the schools in Knysna, 78.9 per cent, are registered with the Western Cape Department of Education as no-fee schools. Schools with libraries and media centres Schools with libraries and media centres has gradually remained at 14 between 2017 and 2019 indicating a need for these facilities in the rest of the schools in order for the overall quality of education to be improved in Knysna. Education Outcomes (Matric Pass Rates) Education remains one of the key avenues through which the state is involved in the economy. In preparing individuals for future engagement in the labour market, policy choices and decisions in the sphere of education play a critical role in determining the extent to which future economic and poverty reduction plans can be realised. Knysna’s matric outcomes remained below 80 per cent in 2017 and 2018 but rose to 83.8 per cent in 2019. 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 7 HEALTH Tuberculosis Healthcare facilities 660 640 641 620 Regional hospitals 1 0 600 580 599 District hospitals 6 1 583 560 PHC facilities (Fixed clinics, 540 40 5 CHCs and CDCs) 2017 2018 2019 Community Day Centres 7 1 PHC Clinics (Satelite and 37 5 Maternal health mobile) PHC Clinics (Fixed) 33 4 Delivery Termination rate to Maternal of Garden Route Knysna women Mortality Rate pregnancy under rate 20 years Emergency medical services 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Garden Health Indicator Knysna Knysna 57.7 0.0 13.0 11.7 0.7 0.7 Route Garden No of operational Route 57.6 33.4 15.9 15.6 0.6 0.6 ambulances per 4 2 District 10 000 people Child health HIV/AIDS (per 100 000) Low birth rate 16.4 13.7 Registered patients Number of new ART Neonatal mortality rate receiving ART patients (per 1 000 live births) 9.2 7.4 Area 2018 2019 2018 2019 Acute malnutrition rate (under 5 per 100 0000 1.9 0.1 Knysna 3 948 4 265 508 356 Immunisasation rate (under 1) 67.7 62.3 Garden Route 23 317 25 738 3 009 2 576 Garden Route Knysna 85% 85% 2020 Socio-economic Profile: Mossel Bay Municipality 8 Health Healthcare Facilities According to the 2019 Inequality Trend report by Statistics South Africa, 75.1 per cent of households in South Africa usually use public healthcare facilities when a household member gets ill compared to 24.9 per cent who use some private healthcare facilities in 2017.This is associated with the low proportion of households with access to Medical Aid which is low at 16.9 per cent for South Africa and 25 per cent for the Western Cape in 2017.