Contents 1, Introduction 2, Electorate forecasts 3, Principles applied 4, Engagement and evidence gathering 5, New housing related planning permissions and possible additional electorate 6, Subdivision of polling districts 7, Development of our proposals Appendices 1 Schedule of divisions with proposed names, electorate sizes and variances from the target electorate 2, Map of Cornwall showing each proposed division 3, Maps of each proposed division 4, Narrative for each proposed division 5, Schedule of new housing related planning permissions 2 1. Introduction This is Cornwall Council’s response to the Local Government Boundary Commission’s first consultation for a pattern of divisions for Cornwall Council. This follows the Commission having determined that from the May 2021 elections Cornwall Council will have 87 Councillors. The Commission has consulted on the future Council size of 87 but, when visiting the Council in October last year, the Lead Commissioner at the time was clear that the Commission may develop a scheme of either 86 divisions or 88 divisions, instead of 87, if considered appropriate to ensure the scheme was sound. He was also clear that the variance was limited to only 1 division. It appears therefore that the Commission is open to proposals for 86, 87 or 88 divisions. The Council’s principal objective has been to develop a scheme of 87 divisions but we also looked at the possibility of a scheme of 88 divisions. The Council is not submitting a scheme of 88 divisions but recognises that others may wish to submit a scheme of either 86 or 88 divisions. This consultation response proposes 87 single Member electoral divisions for Cornwall that balance the Commission’s criteria. Based on the 2016 electorate forecasts, the Council’s proposal provides 53 divisions (60.9%) within 5% of the electoral equality target of 5163, 75 divisions (86.2%) within 7.5% of that target and 86 of the 87 divisions proposed are within 10% of the target. The mean variance from the target electorate is 4.3% and the median variance 3.7%. The Council’s submission is strong in terms of electoral equality. The single division outside of the preferred electorate range is below the range by small amount. The geographical and community considerations in this area of Cornwall are such that it is necessary for there to be a division outside of the electoral range if we are to create a wider grouping of compliant divisions. The response has been supported by the majority of Members present and voting at the Extraordinary Full Council meeting on 13 February 2018, on a cross party basis. This follows recommendations having been made to Full Council by the Electoral Review Panel. At its meeting on 15 December 2015, after receiving notification of the commencement of the review, the Council appointed the Electoral Review Panel to oversee and ensure full Member involvement in and support to officers in progressing the review by the Commission of the Council size and the unitary division boundaries in Cornwall. Since its appointment, the Panel has held a large number of formal and informal meetings and in doing so has been able to robustly and effectively discharge its responsibilities. The Panel comprises ten Members reflecting the political composition of the Council. Details of the Panel’s meetings, including the reports to them and the decisions made are available on the Council’s website: https://democracy.cornwall.gov.uk/ieListMeetings.aspx?CId=1152&Year=0 Through the Panel, the Council has ensured that its approach to the task of developing this consultation response has been methodical, inclusive, evidence-based and robust. 3 The Panel has, throughout, been cognisant of the three statutory criteria the Commission is required to balance: the need to secure equality of representation; the need to reflect the identities and interests of local communities; and the need to secure effective and convenient local government. This submission summarises the Council’s approach to the development of the scheme of divisions now proposed and is accompanied by: a schedule of the 87 divisions proposed by the Council that includes division names, the electorate for each division and variance from the target electorate of 5163 (Appendix 1) a map of Cornwall showing all 87 divisions (Appendix 2) larger scale maps of each of the proposed divisions (Appendix 3) a supporting narrative for each division (Appendix 4) a schedule of the additional significant housing related planning permissions to which the Council has had regard (Appendix 5) The Council’s proposed scheme of divisions is available through the interactive mapping on the Council’s website: https://map.cornwall.gov.uk/website/ccmap/?zoomlevel=1&xcoord=162690&ycoord= 64380&wsName=ccmap&layerName=Proposed%20electoral%20divisions 2. Electorate forecasts The work the Council has undertaken to develop a scheme of electoral divisions has been based, in relation to electorate numbers, on the electorate forecasts that were submitted to the Commission in October 2016. The Council appointed external consultants to generate the required electorate forecasts. The consultants proposed a methodology for developing the forecasts which the Panel required to be changed so that the electorate forecasts were constrained to be consistent with the sub-national population projections (SNPP) prepared by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Other requirements were stipulated by the Panel including known planning permissions for housing development being taken into account, following review of the planning permissions information by local Members. The base electorate used for the preparation of the forecasts was that derived from the Council’s electoral register for June 2016. A thorough exercise was undertaken with all Cornwall Councillors in mid-2016 to interrogate the planning permissions data and collate local intelligence to help inform the housing assumptions the consultants were to use in their calculations. Once the Panel was content with the outcomes of the engagement with local Members and the work undertaken by colleagues in the planning service in providing housing permission data, further detailed instructions were provided to the consultants. Thereafter the initial forecasts prepared by the consultants were presented to the Panel and, following further detailed scrutiny, the Panel instructed that adjustments were to be made to address an anomaly, namely that in a small number of polling districts the electorate 4 was forecast to drop from the electorate at June 2016. Although there was an explanation for these drops, because of the historic trends built into the assumptions used in the calculations, the Panel was clear that any negative growth had to be adjusted back to zero change. Ultimately the Panel recommended to Full Council a set of electorate forecasts that took account of all of the Panel’s requirements, including housing growth being factored in, the forecasts being constrained by the ONS SNPP and with negative growth adjustments. These were the forecasts submitted to the Commission in 2016 and which the Commission appears to have made available on its Cornwall review web pages. The total forecast electorate for Cornwall for 2023 is 449182 which, for a Council size of 87, gives an average target electorate of 5163. The Commission’s permitted variance of +/- 10% gives an electorate range of 4647 to 5679. 3. Principles applied The Council has had regard to the three statutory criteria the Commission is required to balance and noted the greater emphasis put on the electoral equality criterion by the Lead Commissioner when he attended a meeting with Members at our St Austell offices in October 2017. We are obliged for that meeting. In addition, the Panel sought to apply to its work the following locally determined principles: single Member divisions; a balance between preserving parish boundaries and Community Network Area boundaries, recognising both as fundamental priorities; a sympathetic approach be applied to the separation between rural and urban areas; and existing polling districts be kept, except where sub-divisions are necessary to assist in the creation of new divisions with appropriate numbers of electors but recognising that specific local conditions may affect the application of these criteria. 4. Engagement and evidence gathering Although the Council’s primary objective was to develop a scheme of divisions as the Council’s consultation response, the Council was keen to give others information and advice they could use for their own submissions. We encouraged everyone who engaged with us to give the Commission their comments, but also to share them with the Council to inform the development of our scheme. Significant efforts have been made to understand the views of Cornwall Councillors, parishes and the public, to help inform the development of a scheme of electoral divisions as the Council’s consultation response. Included in the information the Council made available were electorate forecasts, maps that could be printed and used by anyone wishing to develop a scheme of divisions and a set of illustrative divisions that were prepared in conjunction with the Council’s external consultants. These illustrative divisions were prepared having regard to the Commission’s criteria and reflecting the following parameters set by the Council’s 5 Electoral Review Panel: observing Community Network Area boundaries so far as possible respecting Parish boundaries as a fundamental priority following geographical features where appropriate creating only single Member divisions having an urban and rural separation as much as possible but recognising that some divisions would need to include both urban and rural elements The illustrative divisions were refined following consideration by the Council and they were then shared with Parishes and made available on the Council’s website. These illustrative divisions were only ever intended as an indication of what divisions might look like and to ignite interest in the debate that was needed to inform the development of a scheme of divisions.