Climate change and food security: risks and responses Climate change and food security: risks and responses FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS | 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: RISKS AND RESPONSES The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-108998-9 © FAO, 2015 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected]. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through [email protected]. ii Contents Acronyms v Acknowledgments vii Summary ix INTRODUCTION 1 A. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY: OVERVIEW OF LATEST KNOWLEDGE 3 A.1 Main climate changes of importance for the agriculture sectors 3 A.2 Impacts on agro-ecosystems 8 A.2.1 Crops 8 A.2.2 Livestock and pastoral systems 11 A.2.3 Forests 15 A.2.4 Fisheries and aquaculture systems 16 A.2.5 Genetic resources 17 A.3 Economic and social consequences 19 A.4 Vulnerabilities determine the importance of the net impact on food security and nutrition 24 A.5 Impacts on food security and nutrition 29 A.6 Conclusions 34 B. ENSURING FOOD SECURITY AND GOOD NUTRITION IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: OPTIONS AND LESSONS LEARNED 35 B.1 Increase resilience of livelihoods 36 B.1.1 Devise appropriate social protection strategies 37 B.1.2 Address gender-related vulnerabilities 40 B.1.3 Conceive disaster risk reduction for food and security and nutrition in the context of climate change adaptation 41 B.2 Build resilience of agricultural systems 42 B.2.1 Crop systems 42 B.2.2 Livestock and pastoral systems 45 B.2.3 Forests 49 B.2.4 Fisheries and aquaculture systems 53 B.2.5 Building resilience at landscape level 55 B.3 Managing genetic resources 57 B.4 Investing in resilient agricultural development 60 B.4.1 Promoting agricultural development for economic growth, alleviation of poverty and reduction of vulnerabilities in rural areas, focusing on smallholder agriculture 61 B.4.2. Enabling in-farm and off-farm diversification 63 B.5 Investing in systems to assess risks, vulnerabilities and adaptation options 64 B.6 Enabling adaptation through policies and institutions 69 B.6.1 Building institutions and policies to support the transition to more resilient systems 70 B.6.2 Enhance markets and trade’s contribution to stability of food security 73 B.6.3 Strengthen regional and international cooperation 76 iii CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: RISKS AND RESPONSES ACTING NOW ON CLIMATE CHANGE, TO ENSURE FOOD SECURITY FOR ALL, NOW AND IN THE FUTURE 81 REFERENCES 83 iv Acronyms AgMIP Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project AMIS agricultural market information system ASIS Agricultural Stress Index System (FAO) BPACC Bonne Pratique Adaptation au Changement Climatique (Best CCA practices introduced by the project) CAC Central American Agricultural Council CATIE Center for Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education CAU China Agricutural University CBSUA Central Bicol State University of Agriculture CCA climate change adapation CEPAL Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean CCAFS Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food CFS Committee on World Food Security CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture CIRAD Agricultural Research for Development CMIP6 Coupled model intercomparison project CORDEX3 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment CPPs Country Programming Papers CSA climate-smart agriculture DA Department for Agriculture DAD-IS Domestic Animal Diversity Information System DLIS Desert Locust Information Service DRR Disaster risk reduction DRRM Disaster risk reduction and management EAF/EAA ecosystem approach to fisheries and aquaculture ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation EEZs exclusive economic zones FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FFS farmer field schools GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GIEWS Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture GIS geographic information systems HLPE High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition ICEM International Centre for Environmental Management ICTs information and communications technologies IDDRSI Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IGAD) v CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY: RISKS AND RESPONSES IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IICA Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture IMFN International Model Forest Network INDCs intended nationally determined contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPC International Plant Protection Convention IPPM Integrated Pest Management Programme IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature LDC least developed country MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry ME metabolizable energy MOSAICC Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change NANOOS Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems NAPs national adaptation plans NAPAs national adaptation plans of action NGO non-governmental organization NPPO National Plant Protection Organization ODA official development aid OTC over-the-counter PACFA Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture PAGASA Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Philippines) PICs Pacific island countries PGRFA plant genetic resources for food and agriculture PNA Parties to the Nauru Agreement PP Pratique Paysanne (farmers’ traditional practices) RCP representative concentration pathways RPP Regional Programming Paper SFDRR Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction SPS Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios SSA Africa south of the Sahara SSC South-South Cooperation UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VDS vessel day scheme WFO Word Farmers’ Organisation WFP World Food Programme WTO World Trade Organization vi Acknowledgments The preparation of this publication has been a collaborative effort involving professionals from within several departments of FAO, under the coordination of Vincent Gitz, Alexandre Meybeck, Leslie Lipper, Cassandra De Young and Susan Braatz, and with contributions from Philippe Ankers, Aslihan Arslan, Nadine Azzu, Stephan Baas, Caterina Batello, Julie Belanger, Agnes Bernis-Fonteneau, Shakeel Bhatti, Sarah Brunel, Sally Bunning, Andrea Cattaneo, Romina Cavatassi, Mona Chaya, Remi Cluset, Keith Cressman, Toufic El-Asmar, Aziz Elbehri, Jean-Marc Faures, Irene Hoffmann, Hideki Kanamaru, Rodica Leahu, Dan Leskien, Damiano Luchetti, Chikelu Mba, Annie Monard, Stefano Mondovi, Anne Mottet, William Murray, Nicolas Picard, Eran Raizman, Natalia Winder Rossi, Federico Spano, Henning Steinfield, Alvaro Toledo and Julia Wolf. Suzanne Redfern provided editorial support for the text and tables, and design; Fabio Ricci for the figures. The coordinating authors thank the following reviewers for their valuable review and comments of a pre-final draft of this publication: Modadugu Vijay Gupta, Sheryl Hendriks, Erda Lin, Gerald C. Nelson and Shivaji Pandey. Responsibility with the final content will lies with the authors. vii Summary Summary INTRODUCTION In spite of the considerable progress made during the last several decades in reducing hunger, as of 2015 almost 800 million people are chronically undernourished. An estimated 161 million children under five years are stunted. At the same time, 500 million people are obese. Two billion people lack the essential micronutrients they need to lead healthy lives. FAO estimates that, to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and dietary changes, food production will have to increase by 60 percent by 2050. “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically), utilization (the